This document summarizes the key lessons learned from two scenario planning processes conducted for long-term city and regional planning in South Africa. The processes engaged stakeholders to collectively imagine different futures for the Gauteng city region and the King Sabata Dalindyebo municipality. They identified strategic choices, distilled learning, and suggested scenario planning as a tool for other communities. The main lessons were that solid research, engagement of broader communities, addressing powerlessness and fragmentation, and enabling long-term local partnerships are essential for effective long-term regional planning.
1. THE FAST CHANGING
WORLD OF SCENARIOS
FOR CITIES AND TOWNS
IN SOUTH AFRICA
Rae Wolpe
World Futures Society
Conference
May 2010
Silimela Development Services
www.silimelaafrica.com
2. City and Regional Scenario Planning
manages creative tensions:
Forecasts and Projections Models
Collective Imagining Scenarios
Collective Deciding Visions
3. Why is long term city planning a
world wide trend?
→Most cities have grown on the assumption of
limitless fossil fuel
→No modern city in current form can be regarded
as truly sustainable over the next 20 years
→Example: Vancouver: working back from “bust”
4. Few cities may even be feasible
as they are now, by 2100!
5. CURRENT Challenges of local
government in South Africa
→Class 1: Very high vulnerability : 25%
→Class 2: High vulnerability: 25%
→Class 3: Medium vulnerability: 25%
→Class 4: Low vulnerability: 25% (excl 6 metros)
6.
7. Many communities risk being
left behind by the future 1
→Global warming and desertification
→World’s highest fossil fuel / GDP consumption ratios in big
cities and huge distances between small cities, towns and
villages
→Major shifts in technology will reshape urban systems
→Sustained tourism boom for at least another 50 years
→Globalisation will leave behind those towns, cities and regions
which are not “smart”
8. Many communities risk being
left behind by the future 2
→Water and food scarcities
→The widening divide between “haves” and “have not’s”
→Failing education system in context of a world moving into a
knowledge economy
→ Growing service delivery protests and political tensions:
9. Current planning systems are
weak
→The compulsory Integrated Development Plans
(IDPs)are for only 5 years
→General lack of strategic and research capacity to
do IDPs
→The vision for the municipality is political
“motherhood and apple” pie
→Access and communication difficulties for less
educated communities struggling with basic
need issues
10. Benefits of local government
scenario planning
→ Captures different points of view
→ Is imaginative and captures interest of youth
→ Attracts key government and business decision
makers
→ De-politicises the future
→ Emphasizes the need for partnership
→ Attracts innovative ideas
→ Common language for debate
14. Case Study 1: Gauteng City
Region Vision 2055
Objectives:
→ Use scenario planning
→ Base debate on best available analysis, supported with
global benchmarking
→ Get key decision makers involved from the beginning
→ Define a vision based on best case attainable scenario
→ Agree on the strategic choices
→ Implement the choices in ongoing strategic processes
16. Strengths
• Largest urban economy in Africa: the only true Global City
Region
• Logistics hub of the SADC region of 200 million (growing to
300 million by 2030)
• English speaking
• Political, academic and cultural centre
• Gateway between Africa and the world
• Established City Region structures
• Massive investment in Gautrain and Bus Rapid Transport
• Significant revitalisation of Inner City
17. Weaknesses
• Highest levels of inequality and violent crime in the
world
• 3m people earning less than 1 $ per day, living in
shacks & hardest hit by crime & disease
• 1 ½ million structurally unemployed
• Chronic and deepening skills shortage
• Weak alignment between government departments
and spheres
• Very high fossil fuel dependency
• Inefficient urban structure
18. The Big Surprises
→The Gauteng City Region doubles from its
current size of 12-14 m to 25m people by 2055
→Half of the South African population lives in the
City Region by 2055
→At the same time the population of the African
continent doubles to 2 billion people and is the
world’s fastest growing region
20. African Vision: 2009 – 2014:
The City Region was positioned and geared for the
anticipated ”long boom” in commodity prices and the
higher levels of investment in Africa by setting itself up for
business as a gateway to the African economy.
21. African Trade and Manufacturing Hub: 2015 – 2024:
Because it laid the foundation by getting the basics right in the 2009 to
2014 years, the City Region used its strengths to become a booming
African trade and manufacturing centre.
22. African Gateway: 2025 – 2034:
Because it was successful as a trade and manufacturing
hub, Gauteng began to diversify and became a gateway of
services, information and connections to Africa.
23. African Knowledge Capital: 2035 – 2055:
Because of its gateway role, Gauteng was able to
develop into a global hub for African knowledge,
technology and creative industries.
24. Business As Usual Scenario: African Mega
Conurbation
African Dream: 2009-2014
Following the recession of 2009, the thousands of workers who lost their
permanent jobs in Gauteng joined the long queue of the million
people who had not had a job in the past three years.
African Shopping Centre: 2015 – 2024:
Because the City Region did not have the foundations in place, it
struggled to compete with the new rules of sustainability, energy
efficiency and changing trade opportunities.
The “long emergency” of escalating energy prices, draconian
regulations for cutting carbon emissions, and intensifying climate
change had arrived
25. African Mega Conurbation Continued
African Island: 2025 -2034:
Because Gauteng was not a trusted gateway to Africa, the City Region became
more isolated from the opportunities being created on the continent.
Gauteng had been overtaken by a poverty trap too vast to deal with in any five-
year term of government. The high carbon emission rating of “Made in
Gauteng” goods closed off major export markets.
African Mega Conurbation: 2035 -2055
Because Gauteng had become fragmented and isolated, it became a loose
collection of parts that competed with each other for growth, trade and
investment and at the same time avoided having to deal with social and
environmental issues.
The City Region was unable to deal with the energy and food security crises, and
daily life became increasingly fragile for the “brave” who continued to visit
and live in the world’s most dangerous City Region.
26. Case Study Two: King Sabata
Dalindyebo Municipality: Eastern Cape
27. Local Development Challenges 1
→ Very high unemployment…up to 60%
→ Youth, old age and poverty dependency
→ Major disparity between rural and urban
→ Spatial remoteness
→ Institutional complexity
→ Mthatha as a former homeland capital
28. Local Development Challenges 2
→ Municipality struggling to come to terms
with
→Basic service delivery
→Infrastructure backlogs
→Financial viability
→Short and long term planning
29. The Process Intent
Bring together the views and insights of
→Government
→Local business
→Civil society organisations
→Research institutions
…in an inclusive and effective manner in order
to be able to stimulate a useful perspective on
the long term (2030) future.
31. Research Foundation
→Probabilistic Analysis
→Past KSD socio-economic trends
→Three SA scenario exercises
→Presidency
→Dinokeng
→COFISA Eastern Cape
→Many international studies and
scenario exercises
33. Participants were asked: tell us how
these three toddlers in different settings
grow up to 2030?
Example
→Lulama, born 15 October
2008 in Ngangelizwe
Township in Mthatha
→22 years old in 2030
34. What happens to
Lulama...
→ Completed Matric in Ngangelizwe
→ Received bursary from KSD
→ Has honours in Environmental Science
→ Registered for a Masters degree
→ Learned business skills from local role models
→ Working as a consultant in environmental management
→ Has contributed towards improving natural assets, esp.
Rivers
→ Passionate about rebuilding and reclaiming Mthatha
→ Also runs an office in Durban, works remotely
→ Lives in her own flat close to the CBD
35. What happens to the setting:
Mthatha Othathayo 2030
→ Economic infrastructure has improved esp. the completion of
Mthatha-Kokstad rail line
→ Public transport system is good
→ Airport Upgrades
→ Improved Agriculture – food security
→ Rail networks links products to markets
→ ICT Development
→ Use CCTV (Close Circuit Television)- to fight crime
→ Water is clean and recreation areas are good, clean air,
contributing towards good quality of life
→ Better housing – through mixed use high density development
→ Mthatha has grown due to its strategic location between East
London, Kokstad, Queenstown and enhanced rail system
36. Participants were then asked: To make
the good things in these stories come
true, what needs to happen in KSD?
Product = 7 Directions for the Future
1. Fix Mthatha
2. Boost Farming
3. Pull Social Development Together
4. Drive Technology- knowledge
5. Launch Tourism
6. Connect up Rail and Road
7. Build Collective Leadership
37. Participants asked again: How will the 7
Directions play out in the 4 Proto
Scenarios?
Product = 4 probable and collectively
imagined scenarios
→ Mihla Ngemihla (Business As Usual)
→ Gxaba Gxabiso (Quick Results)
→ Intlakohlazo (Greener than Usual)
→ Inkqubela Phambili Sibambisene (Sustainable
Development)
38. SERVICE DELIVERY
FFG ID
O R
People-driven
Gated development Social capital focus
Recycling
IN ESTM TA D
Big Malls
EN N
Mega-farms Cultivates local
Mass-resorts investment
C N LO Y
Community Technology
TE H O G
Depends on outside
investors Small farm collectives
BIG BOX OLD TECH GREEN TECH
Infrastructure Backlogs Some pilot projects
Subsistence Farms Only a few benefit
V
Grudge Tourism Rural community left
Little private investment behind
Relies on government Green town & villages
Relies on government
NG ID
O R
40. Reflection and Closure
Final Steering Committee workshop:
→distilled key learning’s from the
process in regard to long term planning
for KSD
→Suggested replication of the process in
other communities in South
Africa....concept of scenario planning
toolkit
41. LESSONS LEARNED 1
→Solid research base is critical: no short cuts
→Both engagement processes were successful
and can be replicated
→High level of interest and participation
→Consensus reached quickly on
→future threats and opportunities
→the choices which need to be made soon
→Both processes stalled once government had to
start digesting approvals
42. LESSONS LEARNED 2
→Extending the conversation to the broader
community: in Gauteng this is starting....
→Managing powerlessness: government
struggles to work with itself
→Fragmented delivery of social development
services, when this is core issue
→Inability to drive creative industries and
developmental tourism
→Education is the Achilles Heel:
→Early Childhood Development
→Primary Schooling
→Vocational Skills
43. LESSONS LEARNED 3
→Capable long term local partnerships are the
key to unlocking the future....and we don’t
know how to make them happen
→The “sustainable development” scenario
needs to be:
→translated into concrete 5/10/15 year milestone
indicators
→coupled with local IDPs and other government
programmes
→supported by business, academia and community
organisations
44. Thank you
Rae Wolpe
rae@silimelaafrica.com
www.silimeelaafrica
082 566 5529