In pandemic's wake, more New Yorkers on the move

COLONIE — People want to move. The Siena College Research Institute learned that from its most recent statewide survey of consumer sentiment.

In New York City, 17 percent of the respondents said they wanted to buy a home within the next six months, triple the usual number, according to Doug Lonnstrom, who oversees the quarterly survey.

"Most of it is people moving out of the cities," Lonnstrom, the Institute's founding director, said.

Upstate, 13 percent of respondents said they planned a home purchase.

The housing market has been strong in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic, the recent civil protests in cities nationwide, and residents being cooped up in small urban apartments during the lockdown early in the pandemic.

The perceived risk of taking public transportation, Lonnstrom said, may have led to a spike in car purchases.  Nearly half of respondents were planning to purchase consumer electronics, while more than a quarter said they planning major home improvements or investments in furniture.

But how did they feel about the economy? After all, economists believe consumer confidence is a major factor in the willingness to spend. And that spending makes up two-thirds of the nation's economic activity.

New Yorkers were less optimistic than consumers nationally, with an index of 74.4, down 1.6 points, even as the nation's index rose 4.4 points to 80.4. And while New Yorkers lag in current confidence, they lead the nation in future confidence, Lonnstrom said, although just barely, 76.6 compared to the nation's 75.6. Break-even, where optimism and pessimism are in balance, is in the low 70s.

Republican respondents were the most optimistic overall, with an index of 87.1. Higher-income households, men, and respondents under 55 were also more optimistic, while those over 55 and in lower-income households were the least optimistic, along with women, Democrats and upstate residents.

Gasoline prices weren't a concern early in the pandemic, when few people were commuting, but rose in the most recent survey even as prices remained the same, said Lonnstrom.

The most recent survey was completed before the outbreak of Covid-19 in the White House and before negotiations on a new federal stimulus package were called off.

There have been concerns about a spike in job losses and evictions as employers and households face a growing cash crunch. More temporary furloughs have been converted to permanent job losses as a new federal stimulus becomes less likely.

eanderson@timesunion.com