As much hope as a new year brings, it’s not going to make much difference when it comes to weather.
Two upcoming storms will be “unimpressive” for the north valley, according to a local weather forecaster.
Any amount of the wet stuff is good, but the forecast doesn’t hold more than half an inch or so of rain — a quarter inch of rain per storm, between Wednesday night and Friday.
“I would definitely not jump up and down,” said Chico-based Western Weather Group forecaster Zach Graff.
“They’ll wet the roads.”
The Department of Water Resources will do the first of five manual snow surveys Wednesday in a meadow near Echo Summit off Highway 50 before the storm rolls in.
The event is largely a photo opportunity, because DWR maintains arrays of automatic snow sensors and already knows how the snow pack is doing.
It’s not doing very well.
DWR’s Central Sierra region — where the Echo Summit is located — has 29 percent of the snow that’s normal for this time of year, the equivalent of 3.2 inches of water.
The situation is even worse in the Northern Sierra/Trinity region, which fill into Lake Oroville and Shasta and Trinity Lakes. In this area the snowpack is 21 percent of normal with the equivalent of only 2.4 inches of water.
While valley-level temperatures will be cooler than they have been, Graff said there will be warmer temperatures aloft, and the snow level won’t drop below 10,000 feet.
Timing
The first storm will be coming in Wednesday afternoon and getting stronger Wednesday night, with steadier rain into Thursday.
A second storm will be coming in late Thursday night to Friday morning.
“There could be heavier rainfall before 3 p.m. Friday.
On the horizon for early next week could be another storm system, but Graff said, “I don’t want to get anyone’s hopes up.”
Western Weather Group issued a summation of Chico partial rainfall season, from July 1-Dec. 31. Over that period, the average is 9.18 inches of rain. For 2017, it was at 5.28 inches, with those measurements being taken at the Chico State University Farm. Western Weather noted it was the third driest December in 30 years.
The company’s rainfall season runs July 1 through June 30.
The Redding Record Searchlight noted its area’s December weather was the second driest in 124 years.
Said Chico’s Graff, “It’s dryer than normal.”
Drought?
Graff noted that there was a discussion of predicted rain levels last fall, Western Weather didn’t see much relief ahead.
“It’s hard to drop the word (drought). I don’t want to put it out there. It’s definitely drier than normal. It’s harder to recover (waterwise) when we barely have any rain in December. The wet season … is scaring some people,” Graff said.
It’s the state that will issue a definitive summation about California’s water conditions and any actions to be taken, according to California Water Service District Manager Peter Bonacich in Chico. After that, the water purveyors take their stands.
“I’m sure there is concern across the board about how dry it’s been this winter.”
Bonacich said there hasn’t been word from the state on whether conservation efforts would be recommended or mandated.
“I would expect the state, if this pattern continues longer, will come out with some kind of message. We may get some kind of a message (from Cal Water),” he noted.
“They could say, ‘Please make an effort.’”
If there was good news, it was Chico’s water conservation numbers for November, Bonacich
In October, there was a 15 percent reduction of water use from the 2013 benchmark. But in November, that amount reached 38 percent reduction.
Bonacich guessed it was a combination of shutting off irrigation systems for the winter, as well as conservation measures.
Reach reporter Laura Urseny at 896-7750. City Editor Steve Schoonover contributed to this report.
