PREVIEW: Super Rugby, Round 18 - Part Two
DESPERATE DERBIES: With just two rounds of league action remaining, there are some intriguing match-ups this Saturday – including a couple of crucial domestic derbies.
The Hurricanes will look to end a three-match losing streak to retain their top-four finish and the home ground advantage that comes with it in the quarterfinals.
The Hurricanes, Chiefs, and Highlanders are all in the hunt for fourth spot and a home quarterfinal.
The Hurricanes, who currently hold fourth position on 45 points, host the unpredictable Blues in Wellington.
The Sharks, the only team currently outside the top eight with a realistic play-off chance, MUST beat the Stormers in Cape Town to keep their dream alive.
The Jaguares could go top of the South African conference – and host a home quarterfinal in Buenos Aires – if they beat the Bulls in Pretoria.
The Jaguares’ astonishing run of form has put the Lions in doubt of hosting a quarterfinal in Johannesburg.
If the Waratahs beat the Sunwolves this weekend, they will almost be certain to win the Australian conference. In fact, they will also overtake the leading team in the South African conference on the overall table and have an easier road to the semifinals.
The Lions have a nervous wait as results from this weekend could see them plunge to seventh. If they dropped to eighth, they’d play the Crusaders in the quarterfinals.
Quarterfinal match-ups based on current standings:
* The Crusaders would take on the Rebels in Christchurch
* The Chiefs would head to Wellington to face the Hurricanes
* The Lions would play host to the Jaguares in Johannesburg
* The Waratahs would battle the Highlanders in Sydney
Tie-breakers (if teams are tied on competition points):
a) Most wins from all matches
b) Greatest points-difference
c) Most tries from all matches
d) Greatest tries-difference
e) Coin toss
We take a look at Saturday’s matches!
Saturday, July 7:
Chiefs v Brumbies
(Waikato Stadium, Hamilton – Kick-off: 17.15; 15.15 AEST; 05.15 GMT)
The Chiefs put down a big marker last week, as they moved to within four points of a top-four finish.
However, they are up against a Brumbies that has hit some fine form – including knocking over the Hurricanes 24-12 in Canberra last week.
Chiefs assistant coach Neil Barnes said the Brumbies earned a lot of respect with last week’s performance.
“They’re a very clinical team,” Barnes told the Waikato Times.
“They’re a very good forward pack and their backs have got great strike power.
“So we’re taking nothing for granted at all.”
The Chiefs are determined to replicate last week’s stunning start against the Hurricanes, which resulted in the jaw-dropping 42-0 half-time scoreline.
“We were tinkering with things and it just panned out on the day,” Barnes said.
“I’d like to think we’re working hard to get them into exactly the same position this week, and it’s up to the boys to put it on the paddock.”
The Brumbies, who have won the past three games in a row, haven’t beaten the Chiefs at home since 2007 and the Hamilton-based is in brilliant form after scoring 42 points in 40 minutes last week.
“I consider the Chiefs the most dangerous team in the competition,” Brumbies coach Dan McKellar told the Canberra Times.
“They’ve got an excellent offload game, they’ve got speed and very good support play.
“Like they did last week. If those offloads stick they can get a score quickly.
“They’re dangerous, but they also present you with opportunities because they play so much. Defence is critical for us this weekend.”
Recent results:
2017: Chiefs won 28-10, Hamilton
2016: Chiefs won 48-23, Canberra
2015: Chiefs won 19-17, New Plymouth
2014: Brumbies won 32-30, Canberra (quarterfinal)
2014: Brumbies won 41-23, Canberra
Prediction: The Chiefs have won their last three games on the bounce against the Brumbies, their longest ever winning streak against the Canberrans. The Chiefs have won 12 of their last 13 games against Australian opposition, including their last eight on the bounce by an average margin of 21 points. The Brumbies have won their last three games on the bounce; the last time they won more was a four-game streak from May to July 2016. The Chiefs have made 15 clean breaks and 13 offloads per game this season, the most of any team in the competition in either category. Andy Muirhead has crossed for a try in each of the Brumbies’ last three games after scoring in only one of his previous nine games for the franchise. The Brumbies will make life unpleasant for the home team, but the Chiefs have too much class and should win by 12 points.
Teams:
Chiefs: 15 Solomon Alaimalo, 14 Toni Pulu, 13 Sean Wainui, 12 Charlie Ngatai (co-captain), 11 Shaun Stevenson, 10 Damian McKenzie, 9 Brad Weber, 8 Liam Messam, 7 Sam Cane (co-captain), 6 Luke Jacobson, 5 Tyler Ardron, 4 Michael Allardice, 3 Angus Ta’avao, 2 Nathan Harris, 1 Karl Tu’inukuafe.
Replacements: 16 Samisoni Taukei’aho, 17 Sam Prattley, 18 Jeff Thwaites, 19 Jesse Parete, 20 Lachlan Boshier, 21 Te Toiroa Tahuriorangi, 22 Marty McKenzie, 23 Johnny Fa’auli.
Brumbies: 15 Tom Banks, 14 Henry Speight, 13 Tevita Kuridrani, 12 Kyle Godwin, 11 Andrew Muirhead, 10 Christian Lealiifano, 9 Joe Powell, 8 Isi Naisarani, 7 David Pocock, 6 Tom Cusack, 5 Blake Enever, 4 Rory Arnold, 3 Allan Alaalatoa, 2 Folau Fainga’a, 1 Nic Mayhew.
Replacements: 16 Connal Mcinerney, 17 Ben Alexander, 18 Leslie Leuluaialii-Makin, 19 Richie Arnold, 20 Lachlan Mccaffrey, 21 Matt Lucas, 22 Wharenui Hawera, 23 Lausii Taliauli
Referee: Rasta Rasivhenge (South Africa)
Assistant referees: Glen Jackson (New Zealand), Angus Mabey (New Zealand)
TMO: Shane McDermott (New Zealand)
Hurricanes v Blues
(Westpac Stadium, Wellington – Kick-off: 19.35; 07.35 GMT)
The Hurricanes need to end a three-match losing streak to retain their fourth place on the standings.
They have, in assistant coach John Plumtree, one of the most astute rugby brains in the game.
“We haven’t been playing well and we accept that and we take responsibility for it as a group,” Plumtree told superrugby.co.nz.
“Our challenge is to get things right and our short-term focus is on the Blues this week and we’ve got an opportunity to get it right.
“Everyone is working really hard to make sure that happens.
“The coaches have got their heads down, the players are hurting, but we are determined, and very positive, to get it right this week,” he said.
The Hurricanes have looked vulnerable against New Zealand teams, especially against the Crusaders and Highlanders just before the June break.
Plumtree said turnovers have been costly in all three defeats.
“We’ve had a bit of that in the last three games and those are the trends that we’re seeing,”Plumtree added.
Our challenge is to make sure that we go about fixing that,” he said.
“We’ve worked out some things that have happened to us and we’ve got to even the ledger around the stats, territory and possession in particular so that we can get our game going.”
The Blues hope to take advantage of Hurricanes’ late-season stumble to break their long drought against New Zealand opposition.
Tana Umaga’s men have not won a New Zealand derby since February 2016, but are coming off a strong win over the Reds.
While their play-off hopes are over, it offers the Blues a chance to restore some pride and avenge a 15-36 loss to the Hurricanes last month.
Recent results:
2018: Hurricanes won 36-15, Auckland
2017: Hurricanes won 28-24, Auckland
2016: Hurricanes won 37-27, Wellington
2016: Hurricanes won 23-19, Auckland
2015: Hurricanes won 29-5, Auckland
2015: Hurricanes won 30-23, Palmerston North
Prediction: The Hurricanes have won their last six games on the bounce against the Blues, a streak twice as long as any other they have managed against the Auckland franchise. The Hurricanes have now lost three games on the bounce; the last time they went longer without a win was an eight-game drought across the 2013 and 2014 campaigns. The Blues will be looking to register back-to-back wins for the first time since Round 12, 2017 after picking up a 39-16 win over the Reds in Round 17. The Hurricanes have a tackle success rate of 85 percent in Super Rugby 2018, the best of any team in the competition. Rieko Ioane and Jordie Barrett have each made 24 offloads so far this campaign, only Jean-Luc du Preez (31) has made more. Yes, the Blues can win. But don’t bet your house on it. The Hurricanes to win by 15 points … perhaps even more.
Teams:
Hurricanes: 15 Jordie Barrett, 14 Nehe Milner-Skudder, 13 Wes Goosen, 12 Ngani Laumape, 11 Julian Savea, 10 Beauden Barrett, 9 Thomas Perenara, 8 Blade Thomson, 7 Sam Henwood, 6 Brad Shields (captain), 5 Sam Lousi, 4 Vaea Fifita, 3 Ben May, 2 Ricky Riccitelli, 1 Toby Smith.
Replacements: 16 James O’Reilly, 17 Fraser Armstrong, 18 Jeff To’omaga-Allen, 19 Michael Fatialofa, 20 Gareth Evans, 21 Jamie Booth, 22 Ihaia West, 23 Ben Lam.
Blues: 15 Matt Duffie, 14 Melani Nanai, 13 Michael Collins, 12 Rieko Ioane, 11 Caleb Clarke, 10 Stephen Perofeta, 9 Augustine Pulu (captain), 8 Akira Ioane, 7 Blake Gibson, 6 Jerome Kaino, 5 Matiaha Martin, 4 Gerard Cowley-Tuioti, 3 Ofa Tu’ungafasi, 2 Matt Moulds, 1 Alex Hodgman
Replacements: 16 James Parsons, 17 Pauliasi Manu, 18 Sione Mafileo, 19 Ben Nee-Nee, 20 Murphy Taramai, 21 Sam Nock, 22 Bryn Gatland, 23 Thomas Faiane.
Referee: Ben O’Keeffe (New Zealand)
Assistant referees: Mike Fraser (New Zealand), Jamie Nutbrown (New Zealand)
TMO: Aaron Paterson (New Zealand)
Waratahs v Sunwolves
(Allianz Stadium, Sydney – Kick-off: 19.45; 18.45 Japan time; 09.45 GMT)
It will be a clash between the top and the bottom teams of the Australian conference.
Excitement will be assured as two of the most expansive teams in the competition go head-to-head.
The Sunwolves have hit great form in recent rounds and were hugely impressive in taking out the Bulls 42-37 in Singapore last week.
With the Rebels hot on their tail, the Waratahs will be eager to bank a win on their home patch and move one step closer to wrapping up the Australian conference.
Coach Daryl Gibson said the next challenge is another opportunity for the team to fulfil on their promise of delivering consistent performances.
“We have had a settled week in terms of our preparation and it will help us towards what is a very exciting period for us over the next two weeks,” Gibson said.
“We have two excellent home games, one against a team that is very exciting with ball in hand.
“It will be a great game to watch [on Saturday].
“The Sunwolves play very fast, they are very well organised and we have prepared ourselves for that style of game,” he added.
Previous results:
2018: Waratahs won 50-29, Tokyo
2016: Waratahs won 57-12, Tokyo
Prediction: The Waratahs have won both of their previous two games against the Sunwolves, posting a half-century against them on each occasion. The Waratahs have won four of their last six games at home, averaging 41 points per game in those four victories. The Sunwolves have won three of their last five games, including two come-from-behind victories in that time. The Waratahs (32) have scored the most points per game of any team this season, while the Sunwolves (39) have conceded the most. Taqele Naiyaravoro (12 tries in 12 games) is one of only three players (Ben Lam, Michael Tambwe) to average one try per game this season. The Sunwolves are a much-improved team, but the Waratahs have too much to play for and should win by at least 10 points.
Teams:
Waratahs: 15 Israel Folau, 14 Cameron Clark, 13 Curtis Rona, 12 Kurtley Beale, 11 Taqele Naiyaravoro, 10 Bernard Foley (captain), 9 Nick Phipps, 8 Michael Wells, 7 Will Miller, 6 Ned Hanigan, 5 Rob Simmons, 4 Jed Holloway, 3 Sekope Kepu, 2 Damien Fitzpatrick, 1 Tom Robertson.
Replacements: 16 Tolu Latu, 17 Harry Johnson-Holmes, 18 Paddy Ryan, 19 Tom Staniforth, 20 Brad Wilkin, 21 Jake Gordon, 22 Bryce Hegarty, 23 Alex Newsome.
Sunwolves: 15 Ryuji Noguchi, 14 Semisi Masirewa, 13 Jason Emery, 12 Michael Little, 11 Akihito Yamada, 10 Hayden Parker, 9 Yutaka Nagare (captain), 8 Kazuki Himeno, 7 Edward Quirk, 6 Michael Leitch, 5 Grant Hattingh, 4 James Moore, 3 Takuma Asahara, 2 Jaba Bregvadze, 1 Craig Millar
Replacements: 16 Yusuke Niwai, 17 Keita Inagaki, 18 Hencus van Wyk, 19 Wimpie van der Walt, 20 Rahboni Warren Vosayako, 21 Fumiaki Tanaka, 22 Rikiya Matsuda, 23 Ryoto Nakamura
Referee: Federico Anselmi (Argentina)
Assistant referees: William Houston (Australia), James Leckie (Australia)
TMO: Damien Mitchelmore (Australia)
Bulls v Jaguares
(Loftus Versfeld, Pretoria – Kick-off: 15.05; 13.05 GMT, 10.05 Argentina Time)
The Bulls – out of the running for the play-offs – will have additional support from both the Sharks and Lions camps this weekend.
If they can end the Jaguares’ seven-match winning streak, it will ensure the Lions – who have a bye – will retain their place at the top of the South African conference.
It will also open the back door for the Sharks, who play the Jaguares in the final round next week.
The Jaguares will have the motivation of knowing that victory will see them not only move to the top of the SA conference, but also book their place in the play-offs.
The Lions sit three points ahead of the Jaguares on 41 points, but have the bye this weekend.
Loose forward Marco van Staden said the lowly Bulls desperately want to avenge the 30-point hiding they received from the Jaguares – back in May.
“We want to get them back for what they did to us in Argentina,” said the rising star of South African rugby, referring to the 24-54 mauling in Buenos Aires.
Van Staden said the Bulls wouldn’t make any tactical changes, despite a three-match losing streak in which they also fell at home to Brumbies and away to Sunwolves.
“We are not going to change the way we have been playing all season.
“We have analysed the three defeats and know what must be rectified to turn the tide.”
The Bulls’ New Zealand coach, John Mitchell, said they are determined to close out the season at home with a solid performance.
“We have grown as a team and our supporters started believing again, and we would like to reward that trust in us,” Mitchell said.
“In the end, the season did not quite finish the way we wanted, but I am happy that we took some important steps in the right direction. We will reap the benefits of that in the future.”
The team will again be captained by Handré Pollard.
“We only need to look at the log to see how tough the Jaguares will be,” Pollard said.
“They are playing some exceptional rugby at the moment.
“That said, they are coming into our backyard and we need to show who is boss in our house. We owe the Loftus faithful a good show.”
Previous results:
2018: Jaguares won 54-24, Buenos Aires
2017: Bulls won 26-13, Pretoria
2016: Jaguares won 29-11, Buenos Aires
Prediction: The Jaguares have won two of their previous three games against the Bulls, including a 54-24 victory when they met less than two months ago. The Bulls have led at half-time in each of their last five games on home turf; however, they’ve gone on to win only three of those five games. The Jaguares have won their last four games on the bounce away from home, as many as they had won in all their 17 prior games on the road. The Bulls (91 percent) boast the best line-out success rate of any team in the competition this season, five percentage points greater than the Jaguares. Guido Petti Pagaizaval has stolen 11 line-outs for the Jaguares this campaign, the second most of any player in the competition behind the Lions’ Franco Mostert (13). The Bulls may just surprise us all and claim a win. However, the Jaguares‘ form suggests they will win – by eight points.
Teams:
Bulls: 15 Warrick Gelant, 14 Jamba Ulengo, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Johnny Kotze, 11 Divan Rossouw, 10 Handré Pollard (captain), 9 Embrose Papier, 8 Hanro Liebenberg, 7 Jannes Kirsten, 6 Marco van Staden, 5 Rudolph Snyman, 4 Jason Jenkins, 3 Conraad van Vuuren, 2 Jaco Visagie, 1 Pierre Schoeman.
Replacements: 16 Edgar Marutlulle, 17 Simphiwe Matanzima/Matthys Basson, 18 Mornay Smit, 19 Thembelani Bholi, 20 Nick de Jager, 21 Ivan van Zyl, 22 Manie Libbok, 23 Dries Swanepoel.:
Jaguares: 15 Emiliano Boffelli, 14 Bautista Delguy, 13 Matias Moroni, 12 Jeronimo De La Fuente, 11 Ramiro Moyano, 10 Nicolas Sanchez, 9 Gonzalo Bertranou, 8 Javier Ortega Desio, 7 Tomas Lezana, 6 Pablo Matera, 5 Matias Alemanno, 4 Guido Petti Pagadizaval, 3 Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro, 2 Agustin Creevy, 1 Santiago Garcia Botta.
Replacements: 16 Julian Montoya, 17 Javier Manuel, 18 Santiago Medrano, 19 Tomas Lavanini, 20 Marcos Kremer, 21 Martin Landajo, 22 Matias Orlando, 23 Sebastian Cancelliere.
Referee: Egon Seconds (South Africa)
Assistant referees: AJ Jacobs (South Africa), Jaco Kotze (South Africa)
TMO: Johan Greeff (South Africa)
Stormers v Sharks
(Newlands Stadium, Cape Town – Kick-off: 17.15; 15.15 GMT)
The Sharks, with everything to play for, are aware of the dangers pose by a team already out of the play-off running.
The Durbanites still have an outside chance to reach the play-offs, but the Capetonians are only playing for pride in their last fixture of the campaign.
The Sharks will be looking to continue with their good form of late – having won four of their last six games.
Sharks captain Ruan Botha said the Stormers are more dangerous now, than when they were still in the running.
“When there is nothing on the line, those are the most dangerous teams,” Botha said.
“They have the freedom to express themselves and play like they want to play.”
The Sharks captain said the set-piece battle is going to be a big challenge.
Stormers coach Robbie Fleck said his team will be looking to end their campaign on a positive note.
“It is really about ending off on a high note and giving a good send-off to the guys who are leaving us,” Fleck said.
“It has been a disappointing season for us and we want to finish on a high note to give us some confidence for next season.
“This weekend gives us another chance to play in front of our fans at Newlands, so we are determined to put together a good performance.
“South African derbies are always tough and this should be a great game to watch – we are looking forward to the challenge.”
Sharks coach Robert du Preez said defence will also be a key aspect of the at Newlands.
“We didn’t have a lot of possession against the Lions [last week],” Du Preez said.
“We were very pleased with our defensive effort.
“It is something we will build on.”
Recent results:
2018: Sharks won 24-17, Durban
2017: Sharks won 22-10, Durban
2016: Sharks won 18-13, Cape Town
2015: Sharks won 34-12, Durban
2015: Stormers won 29-13, Cape Town
Prediction: The Sharks have won 13 of their last 19 games against the Stormers, including their last four on the bounce. The Stormers have lost their last four games on the bounce, the last time they lost more was a five-game drought early in 2014. The Sharks have won just one game away from home in 2018; failure to win this fixture will see them post their fewest road wins in a season since winning none in 2005. The Sharks (29) and Stormers (26) have kicked more penalty goals than any other teams so far this campaign. Only two players (Elton Jantjies, Franco Mostert) have played more minutes in Super Rugby this season than Damian de Allende (1174) who has made the most carries of any back this season (166). The Stormers will always be a threat at Newlands, but the Sharks have too much to play for and should win by seven points.
Teams:
Stormers: 15 Dillyn Leyds, 14 JJ Engelbrecht, 13 EW Viljoen, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Raymond Rhule, 10 Jean-Luc du Plessis, 9 Dewaldt Duvenage, 8 Sikhumbuzo Notshe, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit (captain), 6 Kobus van Dyk, 5 Jan de Klerk, 4 Cobus Wiese, 3 Frans Malherbe, 2 Bongi Mbonambi, 1 Jacobus Janse van Rensburg.
Replacements: 16 Ramone Samuels, 17 Steven Kitshoff, 18 Wilco Louw, 19 John Schickerling, 20 Juarno Augustus, 21 Herschel Jantjies, 22 Josh Stander, 23 Craig Barry.
Sharks: 15 Curwin Bosch, 14 Sibusiso Nkosi, 13 Lukhanyo Am, 12 Andre Esterhuizen, 11 Lwazi Mvovo, 10 Robert du Preez, 9 Louis Schreuder, 8 Daniel du Preez, 7 Jacques Vermeulen, 6 Philip van der Walt, 5 Ruan Botha (captain), 4 Tyler Paul, 3 Thomas du Toit, 2 Armand van der Merwe, 1 Juan Schoeman.
Replacements: 16 Mahlatse Ralepelle, 17 Tendai Mtawarira, 18 John-Hubert Meyer, 19 Hyron Andrews, 20 Wian Vosloo, 21 Cameron Wright, 22 Marius Louw, 23 Jacobus van Wyk.
Referee: Jaco Peyper (South Africa)
Assistant referees: Stephan Geldenhuys (South Africa), Archie Sehlako (South Africa)
TMO: Marius Jonker (South Africa)
Compiled by Jan de Koning
@king365ed
@rugby365com
* Statistics provided by Opta Sports
