A Military Coup In Egypt? We Can Think Of Worse

The Egyptian army hints that it may step in if the new Islamist government can't keep order.

Idealists will cringe, but a coup may be the only way to put the country on track to real freedom.

There are some things the U.S. government can't say out loud — such as, "We'd like to see this elected government kicked out by the military."

But even Barack Obama may now be quietly hoping for a reboot, courtesy of the Egyptian army.

Obama's administration was so taken with the social-media theater of the Arab Spring that it ditched a flawed but reliable ally, Hosni Mubarak, and created a political vacuum that well-organized radical Islamists were ready to fill.

Usually, an American president who makes such a mistake (witness Jimmy Carter and the shah of Iran) doesn't get a second chance to do things right. Egypt may be different.

It has been two years since anti-Mubarak crowds started filling Cairo's Tahrir Square. The military relinquished power last year to the Islamist government of President Mohammed Morsi, who then stumbled badly on his jog to dictatorship.

Morsi first raised the ire of his badly organized opposition by trying to put himself beyond the power of Egypt's judiciary. Then the new constitution, drafted in a process dominated by the Muslim Brotherhood, was put to a referendum that drew only 32% of the nation's voters.

It won a majority nationwide but lost in Cairo.

Now the country appears to be descending into chaos. Anti-government demonstrators are battling government security forces in Cairo and other big cities.

The death toll has reached at least 60, with hundreds injured. Looters on Tuesday sacked the luxury Semiramis InterContinental Hotel in Cairo — a grim sign for what's left of Egypt's tourist industry.

The upshot is that, whatever power Morsi has seized, it's not enough yet to keep the peace or to make him an effective dictator.

Enter Gen. Abdel Fatah al-Sisi, Egypt's defense minister and head of the army.

In remarks posted Tuesday on the armed forces' Facebook page, al-Sisi warned of a potential "collapse of the state" due to "the continuation of this struggle between the different political forces."

It doesn't take much imagination to sense the warning here: Either civilian politicians create an effective government or someone else will have to do it for them.

Did he just threaten a coup? Maybe that or something more subtle — a tug on the leash pulling the civilian government back to a safer path.

Either way, the Egyptian army is not doing Morsi any favors.

For one thing, it is letting Egyptians know that it still has the power to bring order to the country, whereas Morsi's government seems not quite up to the task.

Also, it's not singling out the opposition as the problem. Instead, says al-Sisi, it's the "struggle between the different political forces" that's hurting the country.

Put another way, al-Sisi's statement suggests that the army doesn't yet see Morsi as the man whose orders it must follow.

If Egypt's revolution sputters out with a return to military rule, the U.S. should go lightly on the public disapproval and work to bring democracy to Egypt by a slower but surer route than street protests.

And by "democracy," we mean not just majority rule but (more crucially) protection of minority rights under the rule of law.

Building the needed institutions and culture for this takes stability and time.

The Egyptian army could provide that space — and the U.S. can make sure it does, because the army depends on generous American aid.

Plenty of nations since World War II have made the transition to successful democracy through the peaceful reform of authoritarian systems — Spain, Portugal, Chile, South Korea, South Africa and Taiwan come to mind.

The process tends to be low on drama, but it works. With luck and a new sense of realism from Washington, Egypt may still get its chance.