Is Pinatubo phenomenon or phoney? The racing world may soon have an answer

In a normal year the question would already have been answered; is Pinatubo, unbeaten in six starts at two with an aggregate winning margin of 25 lengths and an official rating higher than Frankel, phenomenon or phoney?

But Flat racing’s perennial question about whether the previous season’s leading juvenile has ‘trained on’ to become a superstar in his Classic year or was just very talented but essentially precociously mature two-year-old, should now be resolved a fortnight on Saturday when the Qipco 2,000 Guineas finally takes place, five weeks late, at Newmarket.

When the colt, by Shamardal, won the National Stakes at The Curragh by nine lengths from Amory – an astonishing margin for a Group One for any age – it earned him a rating of 128, 2lbs higher than Frankel (126) and the highest since Celtic Swing (130) took the Racing Post Trophy apart in 1994.

Named after a volcano in the Philippines, those fireworks were never going to be repeated on soft ground in the Dewhust on his home patch. Nevertheless his two length victory over old adversary Arizona demonstrated another quality, namely the ability to put his head down and battle when the chips, to some extent, were down.

In the ante-post markets for the Classics – almost as dormant as Pinatubo was for six centuries before it erupted in 1991 – the Charlie Appleby trained colt is even money for Guineas and 6-1 favourite for the Investec Derby even though Epsom does not really figure in current plans.

 “My gut feeling is that he has trained on,” said Appleby, who explained that morale in the yard was high despite no racing, yesterday. “No buttons will be pressed until the big day but from what we are seeing at home, he has gone the right way.

 “Mentally I see no change in him. His demeanour is the same, he remains totally relaxed. Physically though I do see change. He has grown and strengthened over winter. You can tell he is an experienced racehorse now. He goes about his business totally professionally and nothing fazes him.”

Unlike many of his stable companions who spent the winter in Dubai, Pinatubo stayed at Moulton Paddocks, Godolphin’s Newmarket base, because Sheikh Mohammed and Appleby did not want to change his training style or where he trains.

Last year this laid-back attitude meant he went under the radar early on. “He always did himself well,” added Appleby. “He did get his work done but nothing to suggest he would end the season as the highest rated two-year-old in Europe.

“He never won a gallop but he never finished last. He only did enough. He would never disappoint but he would never excite. There are plenty who win gallops in the morning and never turn up in the afternoon – he is the opposite.

“I think a mile will be his trip. Because of his mental attitude, if he was asked to step up in trip later I think he has the right mind-set for it. As for his physical attributes, three of the six races he won as a juvenile were at three of Britain’s most challenging courses Epsom, Goodwood and Newmarket. His athleticism is a key asset.”

When Frankel was about he used to leave scorch marks on the gallops and famously over-took trains on the Newmarket to Norwich line. By contrast Pinatubo hides his light under a bushel at home.

That, combined with the coronavirus distraction and the fact that the low key Appleby, who delivered Sheikh Mohammed his first Derby with Masar two years ago, does not crow from the rooftops, means that while one of the outstanding two-year-olds of the last three decades has a lot to live up to, he is, for once, not being over-hyped.