| Cristina Spanò | |
Frank Bruni Opinion Columnist |
Political analyses come and political analyses go. Not all that many of them stick. But a recent one by my colleagues Nate Cohn and Kevin Quealy will. I knew that when The Times published it about two weeks ago, and almost daily since then it has popped into my mind as both a reference point and a metaphor for so many tensions among Democrats, so many forks in the road as the party evaluates its potential presidential nominees and ponders its best strategy and message. |
“The Democratic Electorate on Twitter Is Not the Actual Democratic Electorate” was both its headline and its thrust; I very much hope you’ll use this link to go back and read it. It elucidates a few dynamics that are too easily missed and that those of us rooting against a second term for Donald Trump overlook at our peril. |
The chief dynamic is that the hyperventilating in the foreground of the news — in other words, the content that rules Twitter and is all too riveting to journalists who linger there — is a poor reflection of what actually animates most voters and fully penetrates their consciousness. It’s a poor gauge of public opinion. |
As Cohn and Quealy put it, “Today’s Democratic Party is increasingly perceived as dominated by its ‘woke’ left wing,” because that’s the wing tweeting so frequently and furiously. “But the views of Democrats on social media often bear little resemblance to those of the wider Democratic electorate.” |
Twitter is the noise, not the signal. And it’s the noise at an especially intense, misleading and distracting decibel level. |
Some of the people distracted by it, I fear, are Democratic candidates for president, who frequently respond to the winds and whims of Twitter, failing to consider the wider audience and longer game. Maybe that’s the right call if the goal is merely the nomination, because primaries most reliably attract engaged and enraged partisans, and thus are more Twitter-compatible than the general election. But the general election is where Trump ends or begins anew, a fate powerfully influenced by who has been chosen to end him. |
Will he or she be a Twitter-triggered candidate or a candidate with a bit more distance from its heat? That’s a dichotomy expressible in other ways: stridency versus a softer touch; passion versus plotting; a call to arms versus a path to peace. In each case, Twitter favors the former. |
Maybe I’m just feeling down on social media, which I’ve been down on for some time. Despite its power to unite — and the many positive ways in which it brings people in need together — it proves time and again to be an even more potent tool for division. I broached this in a column not long ago, but for a more current and probably better take, read my colleague Kara Swisher on the violence in Sri Lanka and the hand that social media played. |
I also talked about the limits of Twitter in a column on the re-election of Gina Raimondo as governor of Rhode Island. To go by Twitter, she was staggering toward defeat. In Twitter’s judgment, she’s an incidental Democratic player with negligible power compared with a social-media superstar like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Wrong and wrong. But those are precisely the sorts of misimpressions that Twitter creates. |
So as you come to whatever opinion you do on impeachment, and as you figure out which Democratic presidential candidates are the smartest bets, remember that an overwhelming majority of Americans spend little to no time reading or sending tweets. Ration your own exposure to Twitter or at least be skeptical of any apparent consensus there. It’s but one forum among many forums, with a fury that’s a trap. |