House prices in London: pace of price falls slow in the capital while buyer demand fuels growth in the North of England

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Ruth Bloomfield19 June 2019

The collapse in London’s property market is showing tentative signs of slowing, according to new research by Rightmove.

Over the past year to June, asking prices across London fell by two per cent, which is the smallest decline measured since January and an improvement on the 3.8 per cent decrease recorded in March.

The slight upswing is thanks to higher numbers of first-time buyers taking advantage of low mortgage rates and the market slowdown.

However, despite continual falls, the average asking price for a home in the capital still currently stands at £618,880, almost double the average of the rest of the country.

Outside London, record price growth in the active regional markets of East Midlands, North West, Wales, Yorkshire & the Humber helped to push the national average to £309,348. This is just £91 away from the market peak seen a year ago, with high levels of buyer demand nudging up prices in these regions.

The London overview

In London's most central — and most expensive areas — the average cost rose to £763,000, while in suburban areas, homes hit an average asking price of £516,000.

Homes in travel Zone 3 were the star performers ⁠— relatively speaking ⁠— with average asking prices up by 0.5 per cent over the past year. All other travel zones showed annual price drops.

“With average prices nearly £130,000 cheaper than in neighbouring Zone 2, the price momentum we are currently seeing may be down to buyers being priced out of the more central zones and having to accept a slightly longer commute to work in order to afford to buy,” said Miles Shipside, Rightmove director and housing market analyst.

But over the past year, only four boroughs saw positive house price growth: Bexley, Brent, Barking and Dagenham, and Waltham Forest.

The first-time buyer effect

Marc von Grundherr, director of Benham and Reeves, thinks London has seen the bottom of its market cycle and credits novice buyers for the improvement.

“Market conditions are currently perfect for first-time buyers due to low mortgage rates and stuttering house price growth and as a result, it is this demographic leading the charge in a market blighted by Brexit angst,” he said.

However there remains a gulf between wages and prices.

“Affordability is arguably the biggest drag on the market as, despite sluggish price growth as a result of Brexit, many still struggle to raise the capital required for a mortgage deposit,” he said.

“Couple this with the additional costs of stamp duty and legal fees and that initial barrier will always be the hardest thing to overcome when looking to buy.”

At a local level, agents in certain popular areas are seeing a return of first-time buyers with decent budgets and pent-up desire to buy.

Charles Mitchell, head of sales at Winkworth in Tooting, south-west London, says first-time buyers with up to £500,000 to spend are kick-starting the market.

"Over the coming year we expect to see a steady rise in activity in the lower end of the market."

He also hopes that buyers of more expensive properties "will also start to come out of the woodwork, in the belief prices won’t sink any further."