Share of Ohioans enrolled in incoming classes at some state-run colleges has decreased. Why?

Enrollment at the University of Cincinnati is flourishing. In 2018, the school set an enrollment record for the sixth consecutive year, approaching 46,000 students.

The growth, in part, can be attributed to admitting a larger share of out-of-state students, according to new enrollment data obtained by USA TODAY from the Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System.

Yet UC had a smaller percentage of in-state students in its freshman class in 2017 compared with five years earlier, according to the data.

Though about 800 more in-state freshmen enrolled, the share of such students dipped by 3.5%.

The trend is not unique to UC. Out-of-state enrollment increased at Ohio State University and Youngstown State University by about 8% over the time frame. Miami University saw a 6% increase.

Several factors – including a decrease over the years in total high school graduates in Ohio – are likely local causes, according to experts.

Across the country, nearly 250 public universities admitted fewer in-state students in 2017, the most recent year available, than in 2012, according to the USA TODAY analysis. The data included public, four-year institutions offering baccalaureate degrees and above.

Some schools, such as the University of Alabama and Tennessee State, saw out-of-state enrollment grow by more than 25%.

Other state-run colleges in Ohio and Kentucky enrolled a higher percentage of out-of-state students than UC, according to the new data. They include the University of Kentucky (6% increase); the University of Akron (4%); and the University of Louisville (3.6%).

Some colleges broke from the trend, enrolling more in-state students over the time frame. Those included Northern Kentucky University, which had a 6% increase, and Ohio University (3.5%).

Change in share of in-state freshman enrollment, 2012 to 2017, at local colleges. (Click the graph for more information):

The Ohio Conference of the American Association of University Professors, the union representing about 6,000 professors at both public and private institutions of higher education across the state, predicted just this possibility in a 2017 report. It cited a new funding formula passed under then-Gov. John Kasich, which rewarded Ohio universities for graduating students rather than enrolling them.

"This formula incentivizes institutions to be more selective with admissions," the report stated. "In seeking only students who are more certain to graduate, universities … are looking further afield, actively recruiting out-of-state and even foreign students who can pay full tuition but are less likely to remain in Ohio after they graduate."

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John McNay, the president of the AAUP's Ohio Conference, said recruiting out-of-state students can add to a school's diversity.

"But our concern really is recruiting students based on their ability to pass courses," McNay said.

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A Columbia University study cited in the AAUP report considered the impact of Ohio's funding formula, finding universities were shifting resources from students in need of financial aid to high-performing students.

"The funding model really encourages them to do this," McNay said of Ohio colleges. "No surprise it’s working. They're bringing in students they're sure will graduate and be successful."

SAT performance, used to indicate college success, is linked to family income. The more a family earns, the better a child scores on the test. Children whose families earn more than $200,000 score at least 200 points better than children from families earning $80,000 or less.

"If you believe like we do [college] should be an opportunity to change your life," McNay said, "this system is kind of working against that."

Another factor, according to Ohio university officials, is falling high school graduation totals in the state. 

More than 135,000 students graduated from Ohio high schools in the 2012-13 school year. Five years later, that figure had decreased by more than 10,000, a drop of about 8%.

The Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, which compiles nationwide graduation data, estimates graduation totals will continue to decline in Ohio in the next decade.

"Falling demographics are a sure factor," wrote Claire Wagner, the director of communications at Miami University, in an email to The Enquirer. "Miami (as well as many peer universities) has been recruiting from across the country and internationally for several years, and we now have recruiters in several other states."

M.B. Reilly, a UC spokeswoman, echoed Wagner, citing fewer high school grads in the state.

Reilly also pointed to UC's multi-billion economic impact on the region, with out-of-state students helping to bolster it.

"In the short term, having some out-of-state students brings economic benefit by bringing in tuition and other dollars they spend here for living expenses," she wrote. "In the long term, many students who go to school here stay in the region to work, live and grow the region."

Out-of-state students typically pay more for tuition, a fact that may also be contributing to the shifting demographics at local colleges, according to McNay, who is a history professor at UC Blue Ash in addition to being the Ohio AAUP president.

"Undoubtedly they’re looking for students who can pay full board," he said.

It's also easier than ever for students to move beyond state boundaries for education. With social media and digital recruiting platforms like CollegeReel and InitialView, high school students are able to connect with faraway universities with ease. 

A small number of state-run universities are beginning to provide breaks on out-of-state tuition, or eliminate differences altogether, for students they want to recruit from other states.

The University of California brought in an additional $27,000 for every out-of-state student in 2017, according to the Los Angeles Times. 

“It’s a business decision,” said Craig Meister, a counselor and admissions professional of 16 years.

At UC, out-of-state undergrads pay about $15,000 more per year in tuition than in-state students.

Residents in some states have raised concerns in recent years, demanding that universities limit out-of-state enrollment. Their goal is to make sure the universities have enough space available to serve the students of taxpaying residents.

The University of California system, for instance, had become well-known for its increasing selectivity and its skyrocketing population of students from other states and countries. In-state students at the University of California-Davis decreased by more than 20% from 2012 to 2017. In the latter year, public backlash prompted the state-run system’s regents to vote to cap the share of non-California students at 18%.

USA TODAY contributed to this report.