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I'm at an analyst meeting at Oracle this week, and yes, the talk has been about Oracle eventually moving its headquarters to Nashville to focus on healthcare and life sciences. https://lnkd.in/gqXsAkVU Why Nashville? Why healthcare? Larry Ellison talked about it in this video from Oracle's Healthcare Summit earlier this week from Nashville. https://lnkd.in/gRh3Z3ir Oracle's healthcare/life sciences offerings include many supply chain tech solutions. I'm looking forward to learning more about them today. Interesting tidbit about Larry Ellison: He was originally a pre-med student at the University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign. At the university, he was named science student of the year but dropped out after his sophomore year because of the death of his adoptive mother. -Cathy (Photo credit: Photo 40712512 © Wellesenterprises | Dreamstime.com)

Interesting Q1 earnings commentary from UPS yesterday on nearshoring: “Moving to our international segment, the macro environment remained challenged, primarily in Europe and Asia. However, volume growth in the Americas region showed early signs of nearshoring.” UPS CFO Brian Newman “More than offsetting the overall decline in Asia, nearshoring became evident as export average daily volume in the Americas region increased by 3.8%. This was led by SMB customers in Canada and Mexico, leveraging our cross-border ground service.” UPS CFO Brian Newman UPS offers a service called UPS Trade Direct Cross Border, which includes consolidation, customs clearance, deconsolidation, and delivery to multiple addresses within the destination country, with door-to-door service across North American borders. https://lnkd.in/eGbedbDp According to the US Bureau of Transportation Statistics, freight between the U.S. and Mexico increased 0.9% from January 2023 to $64.5 billion. Trucking is the largest transportation mode, but electrical machinery, vehicles/parts, and computers/parts are the primary commodities across all modes. February data is expected to be released later today. I’ll share them as soon as they’re available - And here you go: **Freight between the U.S. and Canada: $61.9 billion, up 4.4% from February 2023 **Freight between the U.S. and Mexico: $67.0 billion, up 10.6% from February 2023 https://lnkd.in/eWreHzsw -Cathy (Photo credit: Photo 177242151 © Liskonogaleksey | Dreamstime.com)

UPS Q1 earnings were not a big surprise - declines in revenue, profits and volumes across all divisions. https://lnkd.in/ePJFqmpc During the company's Q4 earnings call in January, CFO Brian Newman told analysts that “Cost will weigh on us in the first half of the year, primarily due to the higher labor cost inflation associated with the new [Teamsters] contract. Looking at consolidated revenue, in the first half of the year, we expect the growth rate to decline with a range of approximately 1% to 2% with the first quarter driving the decline.” Of particular interest to me, UPS has stressed in previous calls the need to protect revenue per parcel. During Q1, average revenue per parcel for Ground declined 1.2%. The TD Cowen/AFS Freight Index forecasted for Q2 that UPS and FedEx would increase surcharges to raise the revenue per parcel. So far, we’ve seen additional zip codes added to delivery area surcharges in early April and UPS’ U.S. Ground Domestic, UPS SurePost Fuel Surcharge and the U.S. Domestic Air fuel surcharges increase effective April 29. “After significant discounting to compete for falling package volumes last year, UPS and FedEx have deployed accessorial charges as more covert tools to increase yields, with changes to fuel, demand and delivery area surcharges targeted to boost revenue,” Tom Nightingale, AFS Logistics CEO, said in a statement. https://lnkd.in/e7nc6wWu On a positive note (for UPS), UPS’ International domestic parcels average revenue per parcel increased 5.5% and US Domestic next day air and deferred noted 4.4% and 7.0%, respectively, increases. Similar to FedEx, UPS is seeing customers shift to the more economical deferred service. More to come probably this evening, including my ACN column - I'm heading to San Francisco this morning to meet with folks at Oracle. 😀 -Cathy (Photo credit: Illustration 15906052 © Nicoleta Raluca Tudor | Dreamstime.com)

US de minimis is under scrutiny as Temu, Shein and other e-commerce players take advantage of the ruling to import items into the US. The Sourcing Journal is doing a great job in tracking various US government bills to change the US de minimis. Last week a bill was introduced - End China’s De Minimis Abuse Act – It adds a new Harmonized Tariff System (HTS) classification requirement for all de minimis entries from countries subject to Section 301 tariffs to ensure duties are being properly collected according to a Sourcing Journal story (https://lnkd.in/eqn6Bzht). This will also aid law enforcement in addressing illegal trade practices, the bill said. It also imposes a new civil penalty for individuals who violate U.S. de minimis law, charging them a $5,000 fine for a first violation and $10,000 for each subsequent offense. Several other bills regarding the de minimis are still open. Last month The Coalition to Close the De Minimis Loophole was launched and includes members of Congress, labor unions, manufacturers and law enforcement groups. https://lnkd.in/eCB_Heze “The de minimis loophole means that our own trade laws are granting bad actors like Shein and Temu an outrageous advantage over American manufacturers,” said Alliance for American Manufacturing (AAM) President Scott Paul. “These Chinese companies have built billion-dollar businesses by exploiting de minimis, hooking American consumers on below-bargain-basement prices and supercharging a retail race to the bottom.” “Congress capitulated to FedEx and UPS to create high-volume lawlessness enabling Shein, Temu and foreign criminal organizations to ship goods to U.S. customers and drug dealers,” Michael Stumo, CEO of the Coalition for a Prosperous America added. “Both Congress and President Biden have the power to close this loophole, save an estimated 20,000 lives per year and protect U.S. workers and businesses who obey our laws.” In 2023, there were over 1 billion Section 321 BoLs. Over 80% are air BoLs followed by truck, ocean and rail. CBP published total filings by transportation mode here - https://lnkd.in/eVguEp_H Earlier this month I wrote on the potential impacts that any change in de minimis could have on air freight - Change in de minimis could impact US air cargo volumes - https://lnkd.in/eCh48Xg4 -Cathy (Photo credit: Illustration 18175383 © Ajv123ajv | Dreamstime.com)

Weekly Top Trends 📰 USPS - The US Postal Service is seeing problems with on-time delivery of mail & packages in areas where the agency is implementing its network modernization plans. Postmaster General DeJoy told members of the Senate Homeland Security & Governmental Affairs Committee that he’s still “optimistic about the changes,” & expects service to stabilize in impacted regions by this summer. https://lnkd.in/gv43wQVi Several Senators called for a pause with USPS' strategic plan until it has data available that shows the changes are having the intended effect. https://lnkd.in/ebBx6-xN 📰 Parcel volumes & costs - Of the 4 largest carriers, only Amazon Logistics grew volumes YoY by 15.7%. Amazon Logistics & USPS experienced revenue growth, while UPS & FedEx declined in both parcel volume and revenue. Meanwhile, the “others” category, comprised of smaller carriers, witnessed substantial growth in revenue and volume. https://lnkd.in/gGWFGXTU. Pitney Bowes report - https://lnkd.in/eKZi2qd. Fuel surcharge increases and other tweaks to delivery fees are expected to drive up the rate per package despite soft demand. At the same time, carriers’ willingness to offer better discounts for customers appears to have cooled off according to the TD Cowen/AFS Freight Index. https://lnkd.in/gAasmTwz 📰 Q1 trucking – Q1 earnings from JB Hunt & Knight-Swift signaled a longer wait for a rebound in the freight market. https://lnkd.in/ezW62_Qb . Knight-Swift is lowering its Q1 projections noting that excess capacity & bad January weather played a part in its revised outlook. It also noted tough talks with its customers over pricing. https://lnkd.in/eVmGUjGf. J.B. Hunt reported Q1 results that were significantly worse than expected. https://lnkd.in/exZbrjTR 📰 Mexico e-commerce logistics – Amazon opened a new Mexico City facility, its largest Latin America facility. Altogether Amazon operates about 40 warehouses in Mexico. https://lnkd.in/eDdK_Wiy Mercado Libre plans to hire about 8,200 people in Mexico to boost its headcount there to 24,400 employees. https://lnkd.in/ea6u3gA2 . - Cathy (Photo 103506363 © Pixelrobot | Dreamstime.com)

Cross-border e-commerce is hot with the likes of Temu and Shein driving the growth & taking advantage of favorable US de minimis rules. This demand has boosted demand for air cargo, driving rates up. WorldACD reported that the average global air freight rates rose week on week by more than 2% between 1-7 April, and now sit at $2.54 per kg – 41% above April 2019 pre-Covid levels. https://lnkd.in/e54aWyaD How cross-border e-commerce is propelling air cargo industry by Rajarshi Chatterjee of The Stat Trade Times is worth the read. https://lnkd.in/dm9AkHJi E-commerce’s share of total air cargo volumes is projected to rise from 20% to 30% by 2027. According to Ludwig Hausmann, Senior Partner at McKinsey, air freight is used despite 10-20 times the cost of other modes of transport, speed being the primary reason. Apart from speed, other factors that contribute to choosing air freight include value, special requirements, reliability of on-time delivery, & overflow from different modes of transport. Hausmann also noted that the four main channels for cross-border e-commerce parcels are Express, Forward-located inventory, Commercial Parcel/Direct Lane, and Postal. However, Majeres noted that e-commerce shipments via postal service are losing relevance and slowing down. Of particular interest this week, Shein tapped Flexport as its preferred logistics partner for its U.S. marketplace. https://lnkd.in/gQUnkH8u The arrangement allows sellers to integrate their Shein storefront with Flexport’s Seller Portal. Inventory can be synced between Shein & Flexport, & Shein orders can trigger shipping and logistics processes with Flexport. Meanwhile, the Sourcing Journal https://lnkd.in/ee625su4 notes that Temu has signed partnerships with two 3PL companies to facilitate U.S. fulfillment - WinIt & Easy Export - Though WinIt and Easy Export have signed on as U.S. fulfillment partners, analysis by Marketplace Pulse shows that none of the sellers on Temu’s U.S. marketplace have primary places of business in the U.S. For more: JOC - CMA CGM Air Cargo enters key trans-Pacific market amid e-commerce boom https://lnkd.in/e8ekmBJX The Loadstar - A 'tsunami of e-commerce growth' on course for air cargo https://lnkd.in/dEFgu_9i The Loadstar - For forwarders, 'a hot Q4' will be all about controlling air cargo capacity https://lnkd.in/dRwirhee - Cathy

March nonstore retailer sales outpaced overall retail sales (excluding motor vehicles, parts and gas stations). Year-over-year nonstore retailer sales were up 4.25% compared to overall retail sales up 3.64%. Month-to-month nonstore retailer sales increased 2.7% while overall retail sales increased less than 1%, +0.7%. YTD nonstore retailer sales are up 8.7% (not adjusted) YTD Retail sales are up 2.8% (not adjusted) Marketplace - Retail sales climbed to a higher-than-expected 0.7% in March - https://lnkd.in/ejArCTBu As defined by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, nonstore retailers include mail-order houses, vending machine operators, home delivery sales, door-to-door sales, party plan sales, electronic shopping, and sales through portable stalls (e.g., street vendors, except food). Establishments engaged in the direct sale (i.e., nonstore) of products, such as home heating oil dealers and newspaper delivery service providers are included in this subsector. https://lnkd.in/ebeJ3KpD Recent US e-commerce news: 💻 Canadian last-mile provider and partner to Shein, UniUni raised US$50 million in an oversubscribed Series C financing round led by global venture capital firm DCM. "These funds will be used to further develop our proprietary tech stack that powers our logistics platform and to grow our network of sorting centers as we continue to expand delivery coverage across the United States," said UniUni CEO Peter Lu. https://lnkd.in/gyBS_nM5 and https://lnkd.in/esGZ9Npr 💻 A ShipStation and Retail Economics survey found that 73% of consumers, are blending online research, physical store visits and options such as buy-online and in-store pickup before making a purchase. 448 billion in online sales across the U.S. and Canada are dependent on physical touchpoints like in-store browsing, buy-online, in-store pickup, or in-person returns, accounting for 41% of total online sales in these regions. https://lnkd.in/esvqdT4y - Cathy

Three interesting tech news items to share today – Two are white papers from GSBN and Descartes and the other one is a WSJ podcast (with transcript) – Subscription may be required. JOC’s Eric Johnson writes a switch to electronic bills of lading (eBLs) from paper-based alternatives would result in an annual reduction of 440,802 metric tons of carbon emissions according to a study commissioned by the Global Shipping Business Network (GSBN). The study comes more than a year after nine of the top 10 global ocean carriers committed to move to 100% eBLs by 2030. https://lnkd.in/ed2iugth To access the report: https://lnkd.in/gb5nQ2yw According to Descartes Systems Group’s report, What Are Companies Doing to Survive the Supply Chain and Logistics Workforce Challenge? 54% of the supply chain and logistics leaders surveyed are focused on automating non-value-added and repetitive tasks with technology to improve worker productivity in the face of notable workforce shortages, which underscores the many functions in supply chain and logistics that are routine and non-integrated, requiring manual intervention. Delivery route optimization (54%) and driver mobile productivity (45%) solutions were the top technology choices to mitigate the labor workforce shortage. Automated real-time shipment tracking (53%) was the top technology choice to mitigate the knowledge worker shortage. https://lnkd.in/eKKbmAvF To access the report: https://lnkd.in/eDG7Qz_U Finally, from the WSJ is an interesting podcast on 3D-printing - How 3D Printing Could Drive the Factory of the Future https://lnkd.in/ep9NkUS6 Several examples of companies that use 3D-printing are given including Ford and Airbus. 3D-printing is becoming a larger part of the factory line, but there are some challenges this technology still needs to overcome according to Ford’s Adrian Price. For example, “how do we scale that and get it way more efficient at much higher production volumes? How do we get to 375,000 parts coming out of the process at a very cost-efficient way?” Rutgers’ professor, Rajiv Malhotra, notes “One of the issues with additive manufacturing is there's a lot of chances for it to go wrong. You are adding material point by point. If you are adding 50,000 points, then a good gambler knows how many chances you have of screwing that up. A lot. Bigger parts, bigger problems.” Another interesting story on 3D-printing: Why the Pentagon’s use of 3D printing is ‘not quite there yet’ https://lnkd.in/euYptsc7 -Cathy

Happy Monday! the latest Freight Forward is out - https://lnkd.in/eT7jmug4 Today I'm sharing a few recent retailer earnings quotes: Rent the Runway Q4 ending Jan 31 Reported April 10 🛍 Fulfillment costs as a percentage of revenue were 29% of revenue in fiscal 2023 compared to 31% in fiscal 2022, driven by continued efficiencies in our warehouses and consolidation of our shipping needs at competitive rates we have moved towards a more capital light inventory model with a third of our inventory procured on consignment with little to no upfront payment and 28% of our inventory acquired in '23 from our exclusive designs program where I Rent the Runway collaborates with some of the top designers in the world on exclusive collections at much lower cost than wholesale procurement, our December debt restructuring eliminated cash interest through Q1 of 2025. Jennifer Hyman - Co-Founder, President, CEO & Chairman 🛍 Fulfillment costs benefited from a new transportation contract with UPS and continued warehouse efficiencies. Siddharth Thacker - CFO Hooker Furnishings Q4 ending Jan 28 Reported April 11 🛍 From an ocean freight standpoint, I think we saw some delays when shipping lines went around the Horn of Africa instead of going through the canal, added a little bit of cost, I don't think anything really appreciable. That seems to be pretty stable right now. Supply chains are, I think, in pretty good safe. This downturn, obviously, factories need work, too. So I think we've actually seen an improvement in some delivery times. Paul Huckfeldt – CFO Lovesac Q4 ending Feb 4 Reported April 11 🛍 We have a circular operations philosophy and have developed a circular ecosystem for our customers and our products, driving optimal value for our customers and their investment in our Designed for Life product platform. The goal is long-term relationship. Mary Fox - President & COO 🛍 The work that we started last year around circular operations was just starting to build the foundations for the ability to do trade-in and resale. And I touched a little bit on just the fact that we're even just in this foundational build, launching an internal test for our own team members around open-box item sales and just building the technology to be able to do that. And we have an external partner that is also helping us with that, also working in terms of just the overall S&OP processes that have to happen.  Mary Fox - President & COO Have a good day! -Cathy

Top 4 Supply Chain Trends of the Week 📰 China exports – March exports declined 7.5% on the year in dollar terms, reversing the 7.1% gain in the first two months of 2024, according to data released by the country's customs office. A downturn in demand for mechanical and high-tech products, as well as garments, contributed to March's export deterioration, the steepest since an 8.8% plunge last August. Exports to the European Union dropped 5.7% in the quarter, while those to the U.S. slipped 1.3%. Exports to Southeast Asian economies grew 4%. https://lnkd.in/eqsKx2_K 📰 Fulfillment expands – ShipBob announced the opening of its latest fulfillment center in British Columbia. The new location marks the first in ShipBob's network's to be in Western Canada and the fifth for ShipBob in Canada. https://lnkd.in/ep3QxQQ2 Stord acquires ProPack - which further expands Stord's fulfillment network throughout the US and Canada, and strengthens its ability to provide comprehensive and tailored supply chain physical and digital solutions to its customers. https://lnkd.in/eJVKf_Dh 📰 Air continues to benefit from ecommerce - The US DoT has from April authorized China-based airlines to increase the number of weekly flights they carry out between the US and China from 35 to 50. Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos, said that the increase in capacity could ease some pressure on rates on the trade lane. He added that air cargo volumes out of China were being driven by growing demand for business-to-consumer e-commerce out of China. “Online retailers like Temu and Shein are increasingly buying up air cargo space to the west,” he said. https://lnkd.in/epuiBznT However, the de minimis is under threat as counterfeits rise and the potential lack of complying with the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act (UFLPA). Air freight BoLs makes up 88% of total de minimis BoLs. If there is a change in de minimis, air freight volumes into the US would sharply decline. https://lnkd.in/eCh48Xg4 📰 Retailers/businesses continue to move closer to customers for faster final-mile https://lnkd.in/eaGppnwk   while cutting costs to reduce the need for promotions & keeping inventory fresh - Buy items early & at full price, rather than wait for discounts says Land End’s CFO. https://lnkd.in/eeZtrJks - Cathy (Photo 87922531 | Trends © Kittipong Jirasukhanont | Dreamstime.com)