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The Brexit Plan Failed Again: What Happened, and What’s Next?

Anti-Brexit demonstrators outside the Houses of Parliament in London on Tuesday. A vote on Britain’s withdrawal from the European Union is potentially a definitive test for the battle-worn prime minister, Theresa May.Credit...Matt Dunham/Associated Press

• Britain’s Parliament on Tuesday soundly defeated Prime Minister Theresa May’s plan to exit the European Union, a 391 to 242 vote that is likely to delay Brexit and could derail it entirely. It is a devastating blow to Mrs. May that threatens her hold on power.

• The vote left the nation with no obvious way forward, just 17 days before the deadline for leaving the European Union. Parliament is sharply divided on when, how and even whether to proceed with Brexit, and whether to call an election or a second referendum.

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May’s Brexit Deal Fails in Parliament

Britain’s Parliament voted on Tuesday against the latest plan proposed by Prime Minister Theresa May to exit the European Union. Only 17 days remain before the deadline.

“The ayes to the right, 242, the noes to the left, 391. So the noes have it, the noes have it. Unlock.” “I profoundly regret the decision that this House has taken tonight. I continue to believe that by far the best outcome is the United Kingdom leaves the European Union in an orderly fashion, with a deal, and that the deal we’ve negotiated is the best and indeed the only deal available.”

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Britain’s Parliament voted on Tuesday against the latest plan proposed by Prime Minister Theresa May to exit the European Union. Only 17 days remain before the deadline.CreditCredit...Parliamentary Recording Unit

Parliament’s rebuke to Prime Minister Theresa May, on the issue that has dominated British politics for three years, casts the nation’s political and economic future into confusion with just 17 days left until its scheduled exit from the European Union.

The vote is sure to intensify calls for her to either step down, call a general election, or both. Plenty of Conservative lawmakers would like to take her place as party leader and prime minister, but there is no obvious front-runner, and the outcome of a general election is just as unclear.

Mrs. May’s plan, painstakingly negotiated with the European Union, would have set the terms for Britain’s scheduled exit on March 29.

Unless Parliament takes some other action, Britain will leave the bloc on that date without a deal in place, which Brexit hard-liners insist would be fine, but which most lawmakers and economists say would be disastrous.

Parliament is set to vote Wednesday on whether to reject the prospect of a “no-deal” Brexit, and to vote Thursday on whether to seek a postponement of the March 29 deadline.

The bloc would have to agree to a postponement, which appears likely, but the duration of such a delay is uncertain.

“Let me be clear,” Mrs. May said after the defeat. “Voting against leaving without a deal and for an extension does not solve the problems we face. The E.U. will want to know what use we will make of such an extension.”

Tuesday’s vote was Parliament’s second rejection of the plan, and there was talk of a third vote, even closer to the deadline.

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Not since the early 1990s had a prime minister faced a vote of no confidence. Mrs. May has experienced two in three months.Credit...Jessica Taylor/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Parliament’s rejection of Mrs. May’s deal shifts the focus to a vote scheduled for Wednesday on whether to oppose leaving without a deal.

After Tuesday’s vote, the prime minister said she would not try to dictate to her party’s members how to vote on Wednesday.

“This will be a free vote on this side of the house,” she said.

A vote against a no-deal Brexit would most likely require pushing back the originally scheduled departure date of March 29, and Parliament is scheduled to vote Thursday on whether to seek a postponement.

Some hard-line Brexiteers insist that they would welcome a no-deal split as a clean and complete break from the European Union. But it is clear that most members of Parliament see it as more akin to driving over a cliff.

Formal opposition in Parliament to a no-deal departure would ratchet up pressure on the government to seek a postponement of the deadline, something that would be contingent on an agreement between Mrs. May’s government and the European Union.

Michel Barnier, the bloc’s chief Brexit negotiator, reiterated its position that delay or no delay, the European Union was not prepared to make more concessions. “The E.U. has done everything it can to help get the Withdrawal Agreement over the line,” he wrote on Twitter.

The British government could evade the March 29 deadline unilaterally, but only by revoking its decision to leave the European Union, a step that Mrs. May has insisted she will not take. But postponing or revoking Britain’s departure would give new hope to those who want to call a second referendum.

The 2016 referendum won with 52 percent of the vote, but Brexit opponents hope that circumstances have changed enough to reverse the result.

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The British attorney general, Geoffrey Cox, outside the prime minister’s office on Downing Street in London on Tuesday.Credit...Toby Melville/Reuters

Prime Minister Theresa May’s prospects of winning the crucial vote were dealt a significant blow Tuesday morning when the attorney general, Geoffrey Cox, said that the extra assurances she had negotiated with European leaders did not fundamentally change the legal position.

Mr. Cox said the concessions did “reduce the risk” of Britain’s being trapped in the backstop — an insurance policy to ensure there is no hard Irish border, and a main issue for opponents of Mrs. May’s deal.

[What is the Irish “backstop”? Read our full explanation here.]

But Mr. Cox said that the assurances did not alter Britain’s rights and obligations. Were there to be a dispute, he wrote, the country would have “no internationally lawful means of exiting the protocol’s arrangements, save by agreement.”

Mr. Cox’s opinion was seen as influential for pro-Brexit Conservative lawmakers who had been considering voting for the deal.

On Tuesday morning, Mrs. May led a meeting of the cabinet and told her senior ministers that passing the vote would allow the country to move on to a brighter future, while the alternative would be uncertainty with no guarantee of what happens next. “Let’s get this done,” Mrs. May said, in comments released by her office.

Mrs. May has delayed the withdrawal vote time and again in hopes that the looming deadline would force critics on both sides to give in.

But she faced a very steep climb: In January, Parliament rejected her deal by a vote of 432 to 202. On Tuesday, it became clear that she had not changed nearly enough minds to win.

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Mrs. May speaking in Parliament on Tuesday.Credit...Parliamentary Recording Unit

Her voice hoarse and her political career hanging by a thread, Prime Minister Theresa May stood up in Parliament on Tuesday afternoon and tried to narrow the choice before lawmakers: Vote for my deal, she said, or Britain might very well end up staying in the European Union.

“If this vote is not passed tonight, if this deal is not passed,” Mrs. May said, “then Brexit could be lost.”

Mrs. May was alluding to the possibility that, if Parliament were to reject her deal on Tuesday night, lawmakers could delay Britain’s departure from the European Union, and could later get behind a softer deal or a second referendum that could reject Brexit altogether.

The prime minister, who hoped the threat of those outcomes would persuade hard-line Brexit supporters to back her deal, argued that the tweaks she had secured from the European Union on Monday had strengthened Britain’s hand and given it more power over the backstop arrangement that would temporarily bind it to European trading rules.

But the empty green benches behind her at the start of her speech were just one sign of the thin support she enjoys among backbench Conservative members of Parliament.

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Protesters on both sides of the Brexit debate outside in London on Tuesday.Credit...Matt Dunham/Associated Press

Even before the attorney general had issued his analysis, other legal experts had expressed similar opinions.

Apparently, the most that can be said for the changes is that they reinforce the notion that Britain can opt out of European trading rules if officials in Brussels are found to be negotiating in bad faith.

“In the real world,” wrote Michael Dougan, a professor of European law at the University of Liverpool, “such a prospect should be considered almost entirely theoretical, if not altogether fanciful.”

Three experts in European and international law, commissioned by Brexit opponents to consider Mrs. May’s last-minute tweaks, wrote in an 11-page opinion, “The backstop will endure indefinitely, unless and until superseded by another agreement, save in the extreme and unlikely event that in future negotiations the E.U. acts in bad faith in rejecting the U.K.’s demands.”

Government figures published on Tuesday showed very weak economic growth in Britain, just 0.2 percent in the three-month period that ended in January.

“Growth remained weak with falls in manufacture of metal products, cars and construction repair work all dampening growth,” Rob Kent-Smith, the leader of the team that compiled the report, said in a statement.

Investment in auto manufacturing and other sectors has taken a hit as the country has stumbled toward Brexit. Manufacturers have pleaded with the government for some certainty so they can plan ahead, but many have opted to take their business elsewhere.

Joshua Hardie, the deputy director general at the Confederation of British Industry, described a no-deal Brexit as a “threat that is crippling business in sectors every day,” and encouraged lawmakers to vote for the deal.

The value of the pound sagged after Mr. Cox’s advice on the backstop, with currency traders fearing that his comments had hurt the deal’s chances of passing.

With the defeat of the deal, financial analysts said, the outlook for the pound, and the British economy as a whole, depended heavily on what follows. If Mrs. May resigns or calls an early election, that would inject still more uncertainty into the equation, making for a bumpy ride for Britain.

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Brexit Pain at the Irish Border

The future of the Irish border has been a contentious issue during Britain’s Brexit negotiations. We went to Northern Ireland, where residents worry that the free flow of goods and people could end once the United Kingdom leaves the European Union.

============================================= LUKE: “An Englishman, an Irishman and a Scottishman walk into a bar. The Englishman wants to leave, so everyone has to leave” TOUTS: music “This paranoia ,...” TITLE: DISPATCH FROM NORTHERN IRELAND TOUTS: Singing KASSIE: How was Northern Ireland considered when this was - MATTHEW CROSSAN / LUKE MCLAUGHLIN - I don’t think it was considered at all. JASON FEENAN: Brexit is the exit of the United Kingdom based on the wishes of Great Britain. MATTHEW: (When Article 50 was actually triggered) The exact words that Theresa May used was that because of the wishes- THERESA MAY file: Under accordance with the wishes of the British people, the United Kingdom is leaving the European Union MATTHEW: Great Britain consists of Scotland, England and Wales. And the United Kingdom consists of Scotland, England and Wales and Northern Ireland. (MAP) So even in her language it shows that definitely when it first happened there wasn’t much thought. MATTHEW: I am struggling to see any positives for the North of Ireland. But that didn’t last long. The question of Northern Ireland and its border has frustrated negotiations over Brexit. We came here to find out why. And to understand the consequences for people who live here. For the last century, Northern Ireland has had to wrestle with its identity- torn between Protestants who consider themselves British Unionists and Catholics who mostly identify as Irish Nationalists. The divide has brought years of conflict. In 1968 the Catholic minority rose up against Unionist and British control, spurring 30 years of brutal sectarian violence known here as The Troubles. In 1998 both sides came together under the Good Friday Agreement, It created a somewhat unique reality here. Northern Ireland would continue to be a part of the UK, but also, open its border completely with the rest of Ireland. But the history of The Troubles is inescapable. Murals are everywhere. And Neighborhoods are color coded along sectarian lines. Here in Londonderry, or Derry, depending on whom you ask, there are walls that separate Protestants from Catholics. And the gates are locked every night. For punk band Touts, this us and them mentality, has informed more than just their music. LUKE: I’ve lived here 22 years - me whole life, basically and there’s places in Derry I’ve never been, or I’ve never walked to. I think that’s crazy. MIRIAM WHYTE: Well it’s kind of rough,cause there’s the Bogside - the mostly Catholic area then there’s here, which is clearly the more Protestant area, but very divided, even though there’s trying to do more what is it called when they like - integration or something. People told us those divisions have deepened since the Brexit vote. Under Brexit, Northern Ireland would leave with the UK, and the Republic of Ireland would remain in the EU. An idea that appears to overlook the reality on the ground here. We headed east, thinking we could drive along the border - but it wasn’t so simple. In part because the border is mostly invisible. To get from one town in Northern Ireland to another, we crossed into the Republic of Ireland multiple times - without even realizing it. The roads continuously zigzag across international lines. Nat sound Kassie: Oh! We just crossed. Speaker: Ah good morning everyone, my name is Florence and welcome to our cross-border conference, Brexit and Young People, Can You Hear Us? These high school students live in border communities. Many commute seamlessly from one side to the other to attend school. SPEAKER: The project recruits young people from both Protestant and Catholic communities on both sides of border. LARRY: Now does anyone have some strong views on that like how would you see yourselves different than someone in the north? GIRL: If you have an Irish passport, in my mind you’re Irish, doesn’t matter where you’re parents are from, doesn’t matter what background you have, if you carry an Irish passport, you’re Irish. It’s part of the Good Friday agreement: residents of Northern Ireland can choose a British or Irish passport. Or both. DOIRE FINN: People living in Northern Ireland are allowed to have a British passport and an Irish passport and I think I identify as Irish but I mean I hold a British passport so really, for my identity isn’t ever something that in my family was a massive issue. My parents kind of said, “You identify as how you feel” and I think that that was a really nice way to bring us up. DOIRE: The census that was happening here you could either say you were Irish or British my mum wanted to identify as European and they were like, “Well, you’re not allowed” and she was like, “No, I’m identifying myself as European.” And they were like “You have to pick.” By aiming to separate the UK from the EU, Brexit could interrupt the free flow of people and goods - and violate the Good Friday Agreement. ALAN (walking with Kassie) - I hope, I hope when you’ve got photographs my cows now, that we finish up getting a better price for these cows. Alan Mc Farland raises cattle and sheep a few miles north of the border. But he gets his feed from a distributor in the South. It’s a transaction that happens regularly, without border checks, customs duties or tariffs. ALAN McFARLAND: No one knows what the final result is yet going to be - we just approach our business each and every day having made an assumption that post-Brexit we will be trading with the same people on the same terms. KASSIE: Did you feel strongly about staying or leaving? ALAN: I was actually undecided in the matter, to the extent that I didn’t vote at all. But having that said in Northern Ireland the majority of the vote was remaining in the E.U. **GRAPHIC of vote breakdown** ALAN: But one thing I would say you always have the right to change is to change your mind - I would be in favor of a second referendum, to do away with the ambiguity. That’s because many people here remember the border as a source of hostility and violence. And a whole generation since then has grown up without one. HARD BORDER MONTAGE FARMER: NO HARD BORDER GIRL: HARD BORDER LEAD TO TROUBLE SOMEONE ELSE: IT JUST MAKES THINGS HARDER But when Prime Minister Theresa May tried to introduce a provision.. MONTAGE: BACKSTOP BACKSTOP ..that would guarantee an exit without a hard border in Northern Ireland, hardline Brexiters rejected it...arguing an open border would essentially keep the UK tethered to the EU. So no hard border, no deal, and so far no Brexit. ... Also, no sense of where all this could lead. ALAN: I think there should be a second referendum FR. McVEIGH (287_2358.MFX 09:08): I want to see Ireland reunified. Because I think it’s the only hope for this island. Economically, culturally. ANGLICAN: We need to stay with England for their money And while everyone saidsays they didn’tdon’t want a return to violence, the uncertainty seems to be threatening what is already a fragile peace. //testing the country’s fragile peace. (i think that can cover the pessimists and optimists) Police are investigating a recent bombing outside the courthouse in Londonderry reminder that the past is not far behind. ANGLICAN: We were in the sun and now Brexit destroyed the sun SIOBHAN: If there is a hard Brexit I think there will be damaged but we will have to be OK at the end of it. And we’ve been through harder times than this before. FIRST NAME, LAST NAME Siobhan is a mental health expert who studieds? the effects of the country’s history on mental health. SIOBHAN: Well, we’ve got to adopt a trauma-informed approach and think about everything from the perspective of those who’ve been a victim of violence. We have no way of describing it. We have no common narrative. And it’s going to take a while for us to generate those materials. TOUTS: This paranoia, when will it end, I’ve heard it all before and I’m hearing it again. DAOIRE: I think I’m just really scared about the future of Northern Ireland. I love living here and I think it’s a lovely place to be. The craic’s really good and everyone’s really friendly and I don’t want that to be dragged backwards into a past that was really, really dark for so many people. And I think, you know, there’s so many good things about Northern Ireland and I just don’t want those to go away. (credits with funny tag of Farmer asking about our Mexican border) Producer Kassie Bracken Cinematography Souki Mehdaoui Editor Shane O’Neill Senior Producer Mona El-Naggar Graphics Aaron Byrd Nicole Fineman Dave Horn Archival Research Dahlia Kozlowsky Archival Footage Tktktk Tktktk Tktktk Aerial Cinematography Adithya Sambamurthy Executive Producer Marcelle Hopkins SIOBHAN: In 2008 we studied the Northern Ireland population and we asked people whether they had witnessed violent events that were related to the troubles such as bombings and shootings and we found that 39% of the population had. There’s some evidence that biological changes that happen in response to trauma, that that’s passed to the next generation and in effect it’s programming the next generation to be able to respond more quickly and rapidly if there’s a bombing or a shooting or whatever. But of course when a child has that it increases the risk of mental illness. Um, there’ve been more deaths by suicide since the signing of the Good Friday agreement than there were through the whole of the troubles through violence. END!!!******* BENCHWARMERS SIOBHAN O’NEILL: I mean the hard border is very symbolic I think if that happened there’s a place to attack there’s a place to focus that anger. Siobhan O’Neill is a leading mental health researcher who has studied the legacy of the Troubles SIOBHAN: Part of the GFA was that British forces that were there that that would no longer be the case and that there would be free movement. Anth the remove of the border was an amazing think and now if you pass through the border there’s absolutely no evidence of it. You would maybe see that the signs that the speed limits were miles and then kilometeres and that would really be it. Or “It’s called bomb scare” “We grow up with it, not as bad as it used to be” Match shots of Northern Ireland today Match shots of The Undertones with the Touts <”But I also think things can regress…you get a groundswell and everything moves forward 10 or 15 years and then one thing kicks in and it backslides” Kassie: is that Brexit?> OPEN BEAT ONE - INTRO TOUTS An afterthought during the Brexit referendum in 2016, Northern Ireland and how do deal with its Southern Border if and when it leaves the EU has been the main issue threatening the entire deal. (MAYBE A MAP HERE THAT SHOWS REPUBLIC OF IRELAND (E.U) and NORTHERN IRELAND (U.K) But to understand why this remains unresolved two years later, and what’s at stake in the decision you need to know a bit about recent history in Northern Ireland. Northern Ireland was created in 1922. But since its creation its been characterized by conflict between two groups, each claiming the In 1968 hostilities intensified during the period known as the troubles An afterthought during the Brexit referendum in 2016, Northern Ireland and the unresolved issue of how do deal with its Southern Border when it leaves the EU now threaten the deal’s collapse. (MAYBE A MAP HERE THAT SHOWS REPUBLIC OF IRELAND (E.U) and NORTHERN IRELAND (U.K) But to understand why this remains unresolved two years later, and what’s at stake-you need to know a bit about the history of Northern Ireland and the border itself. In Derry, The Touts’ singer and drummer weren’t old enough to vote in the referendum, but they live in the country many expect to be most impacted by the deal. We drove The singer and drummer weren’t old enough to vote in the referendum, but they live in the country many expect to be most impacted by the deal. Theirs is the generation that grew up after the good Friday agreement that ended decades of sectarian violence has only known relative peace in the region. ASSEMBLY 031019 - KASSIE NOTES Notes - I think we need in the narration a sense that, despite the fact this generation is defined by growing up in peace, there are still deep divides and conflict. Brexit has already impacted this by exacerbating polarization and creating economic uncertainty and anxiety that violence could return. I would love to try to use the Touts/kids in park/Derry to establish the “us” v “them” nature of Northern Ireland - I agree the piece is not about sectarianism per se, but it sets up and personalizes the visual sense of place - the “dispatchy-ness” - peace walls and murals, and also then might have more impact when we see that it seems most young people are united in the feeling like they weren’t considered. Also, Brexit was prompted in large part by the us v them mentality in England, but in NI, as compared to the rest of UK, they already have their own us v them which continues today. **** It’s here in Derry where many say “The Troubles” began, in 1968, - when the predominantly Catholic community protested against housing and employment discrimination. A civil rights march was brutally shut down by police/army. It led to roughly 30 years of sectarian violence between the predominantly Catholic Nationalists who consider themselves Irish, and the Unionists, who consider themselves British, the majority, Protestant. BEAT TWO: THE BREXIT Generation in Northern Ireland - Youth/Derry/Recent History - fear of retriggering violence felt most acutely by people nearest the border BEAT THREE: YOUNG PEOPLE’S CONFERENCE Challenging Identity, Good Friday - which allowed people to claim Irish or British citizenships - the idea that the fluidity of movement will be stopped BEAT FOUR: along the actual border between the countries, it is much more complicated - interwoven - FARMER BEAT FIVE: The members of Touts call Derry their home. Many say it’s here where the period known as the “The Troubles” began, in 1968, - when the predominantly Catholic community protested against housing and employment discrimination and unfair voting policies under British rule. But some claimed it to be a cover for paramilitary actors, and a peaceful civil rights march was halted by police in a brutal crackdown. 30 years of deadly sectarian violence followed between the predominantly Catholic Nationalists who consider themselves Irish, and the Unionists, who identify as British - the majority, Protestant. Sound up on Touts Touts may have grown up in the comparatively peaceful era marked by the signing of the Good Friday Agreement in 1998. But their city, called Derry by nationalists and Londonderry by unionists remains fractured. The tensions never way and in fact many say Brexit has exacerbated it TOUTS: Line about divisions still there Schools are still mostly segregated along sectarian lines. As are neighborhoods. A TKTK fence/wall helps secure the border between a Catholic community and a Protestant community. Every night, it is locked for protection. TOUTS Line about impact of Brexit already? Or line about Brexit? Just 100 feet away from the wall, in the mostly Protestant community The Fountain, we spoke with a group of teenagers about TKTK MIRIAM: Nearly everyone I spoke with mentioned/agreed the same worst case scenario HARD BORDER MONTAGE To impose a hard border, with check points and official crossings would cause headaches both practically and symbolically. And that’s where the Irish backstop comes in. THERESA MAY: The Irish backstop was the UK’s provision to ensure that Brexit would not Sounds good, but The problem is, Northern Ireland is in a custom’s union that requires a custom’s border PROTESTANT PRIEST: WE had a number of years that we thought we were seeing the sunshine, and now with Brexit it’s as if the sun has gone behind the clouds. GIRL: It’s going to become again a situation of us and them. LARRY: Who is them and us? GIRL: LIke Catholics and Protestants or Irish people and people from Northern Ireland, we’re not going to see each other as the same country LARRY you’re saying we’re both live in the same country, in my mind that’s true, but yet I live under a British jurisdiction, Kassie: they have a lot to be fucked about Cut to: kids workshop Yeah, these kids are confused because this shit is confusing. Brexit, and Northern Ireland itself. 45 second history lesson of Northern Ireland And this is the legacy they’ve inherited. NOW made worse by… Brexit! Borders are usually about keeping people in or keeping people out, In this case, But it’s about something more nuanced and complicated, like the border itself DRONE SHOT OF MEANDERING BORDER And Ireland, with its taste for storytelling and humor has a singular relationship with its own border People wandering in and out, funny smuggling stories. LOYALISTS EQUANIMOUS STATEMENT ABOUT BREXIT (maybe from mental health professor) CONCLUSION: AT THE BAR IN DERRY WITH THE TOUTS (with compelling TOUT SOT) One of the other key stipulations of the Good Friday agreement was a free border with the south. Now, Brexit is threatening this. It’s the thing people I spoke with said worried them most. HARD BORDER Montage. Before I got here I’d planned to drive along the border - it wasn’t so simple. Here’s the border. On my TKTK mile journey from TK to TK, I crossed international lines/crossed TKTK times. THIS SECTION TBA BASED ON GRAPHIC I often didn’t even realize I’d crossed. Thirty years ago, this crossing would have looked more like this: FR. McVEIGH (287_2356.MXF 03:23)): The hardline Brexit people are determined to leave without a deal if necessary, or with a deal without a backstop - (that’s the only thing that’s going to satisfy them, and the DUP who are propping up the London government) 04:50 The Brexiteers in London don’t care all that much. Father Joe McVeigh grew up along the border and remembers the checkpoints as violent hotspots. Sound up: Fr. McVeigh shows Kassie photos of the border But this bridge at the border in Belleek shows none of the vestiges of That’s help spur a new momentum for a united Ireland. 13:35 If the Brexit people want to continue their line, they have to consider what’s going to happen to us. We needed to be treated separately and differently. The fear of a hard border, with all of the economic and practical implications has given rise to another potential outcome. FR. McVEIGH (287_2358.MFX 09:08): I want to see Ireland reunified. Because I think it’s the only hope for this island. Economically, culturally. (08:54 It has to happen, it just has to happen 09:45 Partition has run out of road. ) FARMER: Voted to remain in the EU. So leaving the EU would go against the voting majority of Northern Ireland. But leaving the UK altogether would go against the wishes of some of Northern Ireland’s Protestant majority. ANGLICAN: Protestant people would certainly be nervous of any changes. There’s a huge amount of money that comes from Westminster and London. Ironically, the hardline Brexit position has revived some calls for a United Ireland FR. McVEIGH : I want to see Ireland reunified. Because I think it’s the only hope for this island. But positions like Friar McVeigh’s aren’t very popular, especially among Protestants in Northern Ireland’s 6 counties, who would become a minority overnight if they joined Ireland’s 26 as one country. So maybe they could have a political border that remains somewhat relaxed. That’s called a Soft Border or an Irish Backstop. Theresa May: Irish Backstop montage But no one really knows how that would work or what it would look like, which is why it’s been such a bee in the bonnet of the Brexit process. Some hardline Brexiters are calling for the re-establishment of a hard border, a fringe position that proved very unpopular with most of the people I met while I was here: HARD BORDER MONTAGE The hard border was both inconvenient and psychologically fraught. TO SIOBHAN Leaving the United Kingdom altogether would mean losing money from England. The DUP advocates it effectively mean keeping the And that’s why the Irish backstop came up and failed?. THERESA MAY: BACKSTOP MONTAGE. When May tried to introduce a deal that said no hard border, hard brexiteers, including forcing Britain to play by the rules of a single European market even after it separates from the EU, it wouldn’t pass. It was meant to guarantee that there would be no hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland after the UK separates from the EU. But then, how and where would goods undergo checks as they travel between the UK and the EU. There’s no easy answer? The backstop provision says Britain should continue to play by the rules of a single European market until politicians can agree on how and where goods will undergo checks as they travel between the UK and the EU. But how can the UK leave without violating the terms of the peace treaty that calls for an open border here? Which is, in part, why politicians do not agree on the terms of the backstop, and it’s unclear if they ever will. They didn’t want to feel tethered to the EU. It leaves the question of Brexit unsolved and opens up new questions for Northern Ireland. It all leads to this renewed interest among some people for a united ireland. Of leaving the UK altogether. Siobhan O’Neill is a leading mental health researcher who has studied the legacy of the Troubles, And the border debate has, somewhat ironically, revived an old argument (for reuniting the north with the south) Is FR. McVEIGH (287_2358.MFX 09:08): I want to see Ireland reunified. Because I think it’s the only hope for this island. Economically, culturally. The present is more closely tied to the past here than There’s been a fragile peace here for 20 years but Brexit Well, we’ve got to adopt a trauma-informed approach and think about everything from the perspective of those who’ve been a victim of violence. We have no way of describing it. We have no common narrative. And it’s going to take a while for us to generate those materials. But despite 20 years of fragile peace And Brexit has also had a real psychological impact on the citizens of Northern Ireland For a country that is only a generation away from one of the most bitter conflicts in modern history the tumult How will Northern Ireland SIOBHAN: LINE ABOUT HOW BREXIT HAS ALREADY HAD AN IMPACT

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The future of the Irish border has been a contentious issue during Britain’s Brexit negotiations. We went to Northern Ireland, where residents worry that the free flow of goods and people could end once the United Kingdom leaves the European Union.

If you don’t understand the plan for the Irish border, you’re not alone.

Confusing in the best of times and loudly debated almost all the time, the Irish backstop is shorthand for the question of how to deal with the border between Ireland, a European Union member country, and Northern Ireland, a part of the United Kingdom, once Britain leaves the European Union.

The backstop would be a way to avoid building a physical barrier with checkpoints for goods — the kind of barrier that the European Union has done away with inside the bloc. The backstop provision of Mrs. May’s Brexit plan says that so long as there is no long-term trade pact, Britain would remain in the European customs union and Northern Ireland would be bound by many of its rules.

Britain could therefore remain tied to the European Union indefinitely without having a voice in shaping its rules — a nightmare scenario for hard-line supporters of Brexit. Mrs. May could cut a deal with the opposition Labour Party for a plan that keeps Britain closer to the bloc, but doing so would put her at risk of alienating her Conservative allies.

Charles Walker, a senior Conservative lawmaker and member of the influential 1922 committee, demanded on Tuesday that Mrs. May call a general election if she loses the vote on her Brexit deal.

“If it doesn’t go through tonight, as sure as night follows day, there will be a general election within a matter of days or weeks,” he told BBC Radio 4’s World at One program. “It is not sustainable, the current situation in Parliament.”

The 1922 Committee is a group of Conservative lawmakers who meet weekly to discuss party matters. They are responsible for keeping the leadership informed of the party’s mood.

The committee would manage any leadership ballot, although Mrs. May is largely immune from such an effort to remove her for the next 10 months since a party no-confidence vote in December failed.

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The leader of the Democratic Unionist Party, Arlene Foster, after meeting with Mrs. May in January.Credit...Andy Rain/EPA, via Shutterstock

At the center of the Brexit issue is the Democratic Unionist Party, a small group of socially conservative, pro-withdrawal lawmakers from Northern Ireland who wield outsize influence because they prop up Prime Minister Theresa May’s government.

The backstop infuriates them not so much because it might trap Britain in the regulatory orbit of Europe, but rather because it might bind Northern Ireland to more European trading rules than it does other parts of the United Kingdom.

That effectively means trade barriers in the Irish Sea, splitting Northern Ireland ever so slightly from the rest of the United Kingdom. That’s unacceptable to unionists, for whom the link to Britain is sacred. The D.U.P. would rather kill the backstop and risk a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.

The 10 D.U.P. lawmakers were coy early Tuesday about the tweaks that Mrs. May had obtained. But after Britain’s top lawyer said the new language didn’t substantially change the backstop arrangement, the government’s slim hopes of winning them over quickly deflated.

The Belfast Telegraph reported that the D.U.P. saw the legal advice as “not exactly a ringing endorsement.” Other news outlets said D.U.P. officials saw no way that they could support the deal.

A faction of pro-Brexit lawmakers within the governing Conservative Party opposed Mrs. May’s deal after a group of its lawyers officially recommended on Tuesday that the lawmakers should not vote for it.

The prime minister needed to win over members of the faction, known as the European Research Group, to have any chance of getting her deal through Parliament.

The group of lawyers published its assessment of the extra assurances that Mrs. May had secured from European Union leaders, saying that the agreement still did not give Britain the power to extract itself from European trading rules that it would be forced to accept as part of the backstop.

“They do not provide any exit mechanism from the protocol which is under the U.K.’s control,” the assessment found.

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Jeremy Corbyn, the leader of the Labour Party, leaving his home in London on Tuesday.Credit...Neil Hall/EPA, via Shutterstock

Jeremy Corbyn, the leader of the opposition Labour Party, opposed Mrs. May’s deal but otherwise maintained his ambivalence over Brexit as part of his strategy to buy time and come out ahead, observers said.

Mr. Corbyn has said that he does not like the plan put before the British Parliament while “being imprecise over what exactly is Labour’s dream deal, other than that he wants a closer alliance with the customs union and single market,” said Jonathan Tonge, a professor of politics at the University of Liverpool.

On the floor of Parliament on Tuesday, Mr. Corbyn dismissed the assurances Mrs. May had received from the European Union as “waffle,” and said that while the prime minister had laid out a number of Brexit goals, “she hasn’t met any of those objectives."

“The Prime Minister’s negotiations have failed,” he wrote on Twitter. “Last night’s agreement with the European Commission does not contain anything approaching the changes Theresa May promised Parliament.”

[Read about how Mr. Corbyn’s efforts to play both sides of the Brexit debate are tearing his party apart.]

Mr. Corbyn’s ambivalence has angered the party’s primary constituencies: Although a majority of Labour voters overall wanted Britain to remain in the European Union, Brexit supporters in rural areas and working communities make up about a third of the party’s electorate.

Mr. Corbyn has consistently rejected a “Tory Brexit,” and recently said he would support a second referendum — a bid to stop a rebellion among Labour lawmakers in Parliament. But that proposal has angered many Leave voters — especially those who feel left behind by a party they believed had championed them.

“Corbyn can’t ride both horses forever but he’s already ridden for quite a long distance, and there is a certain logic to it,” Professor Tonge said.

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Some hard-line Brexit supporters insist that they would welcome a no-deal split as a clean and complete break from the European Union.Credit...Matt Dunham/Associated Press

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