An explosion at a key bridge in Ukraine's partially-occupied Zaporizhzhia region on Monday may be hinting at where Ukraine could focus its offensive against Russian forces during the winter months, according to experts.
The bridge in question was a crossing over the Molochna River between the city of Melitopol and the village of Kostyantynivka.
The Russian state-owned news agency RIA Novosti, citing regional authorities, reported Monday that explosives had been planted at the "support" for the bridge, which survived the blast but suffered some damage. Traffic across it was also suspended, according to RIA Novosti.
The leader of a pro-Russian organization based in the Zaporizhzhia blamed the explosion on Ukrainian "saboteurs," writing on Telegram that they targeted the bridge in order to disrupt supply lines for the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions, according to Russian state-owned news outlet TASS.
Additionally, Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov appeared to brag about the attack in a Telegram post on Monday.
"In Melitopol, the bridge that connected the city with the village of Kostyantynivka was 'tired,'" he wrote. "This is one of the strategically important objects after the 'fatigue' of the Crimean bridge. It was through him that the occupiers transported military equipment from the eastern direction."
Newsweek was not able to independently verify the details of the Russian state media reports and reached out to Russia's Defense Ministries of Russia for additional information and comment. Ukraine's Defense Ministry was also contacted for confirmation on any potential involvement in the explosion.
Sean Spoonts, a U.S. Navy veteran and editor-in-chief of Special Operations Forces Report (SOFREP), told Newsweek that cutting off that bridge makes it "much harder" for Russians to maintain the transport of supplies in the area. Russian military supplies, such as food, uniforms and weapons, are already reportedly lacking. Leaving Russian soldiers in the area without sufficient supplies, especially during the cold winter months, can strongly degrade Russian soldiers' willingness to fight and defend their territory, Spoonts said.
He noted that the bridge explosion could precede another offensive by Ukrainian troops in the area.
"But I've said before that if you can keep the Russians cold and keep them from serving their guys hot food, the cold weather will do most of the work for you," Spoonts added.
Dan Soller, a former U.S. Army intelligence colonel, also told Newsweek that he is seeing "indicators of potential offensive this winter" from Zaporizhzhia south toward Melitopol. The administrative center of the Zaporizhzhia region is a city with the same name. The city of Zaporizhzhia is located north of Melitopol.
The important question, Soller added, is whether Ukraine has the capacity to conduct this offensive. Timing will be key as well.
"Your best window is going to be from probably early January through the end of February," Soller said. "That really just depends on the weather and whether the rivers and things freeze up in [Ukraine]. That will make it easier for them to conduct offensive maneuvers."
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Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
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Zoe Strozewski is a Newsweek reporter based in New Jersey. Her focus is reporting on U.S. and global politics. Zoe ... Read more
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