2008.11.25 - MTV News - Guns N' Roses Vs. Kanye West: Rock And Rap Face Off In Race For #1 Debut

Guns N' Roses Vs. Kanye West: Rock And Rap Face Off In Race For #1 Debut

Oddsmakers weigh in on Chinese Democracy's chances against West's 808s & Heartbreak.

By Chris Harris

Editor's note: MTV News was initially told that Guns N' Roses' label, Geffen Records, planned to include eight days' worth of sales for Chinese Democracy in their first-week sales report. The label has since amended its statement, and we have revised our story accordingly.

It's shaping up to be an epic battle between two of music's biggest heavyweights, with Kanye West — the Louis Vuitton Don and the man we crowned the Hottest MC in the Game — standing in one corner, wearing gold trunks and white Shutter Shades, ready to drop 808s & Heartbreak. And in the other: Axl Rose — sporting black trunks, a Los Angeles Raiders jersey, red cornrows and a little album called Chinese Democracy.

Who will end up walking away with the championship belt? At this point, it could go either way.

Fans are excited, critics and industry watchers look on with great anticipation, and even oddsmakers have jumped into the fray, casting Guns N' Roses as the favorite. No matter how you slice it, next week's chase for a #1 debut will be a close one.

After years of false starts and broken promises, Geffen Records will finally issue Guns N' Roses' eagerly awaited album this coming Sunday, a day before West's latest hits stores. A spokesperson for Geffen told MTV News that first-day sales figures for Chinese Democracy will not be reported to Nielsen SoundScan until November 30, the same day West's label will report his week-one sales.

Typically, albums are released in the U.S. on Tuesdays, and SoundScan tracks weekly sales data from Monday through Sunday, meaning that most albums' debut spots on the Billboard chart are based on six solid sales days. At first, most assumed day-one sales of Chinese Democracy — which took Rose more than 16 years to complete — would be reported next week and released the morning of November 26. But Best Buy's sales week runs from Sunday to Saturday, so GN'R's first-day sales figures won't be released until the following week. The numbers will be reflected in the chart standings that will be announced December 3.

West still stands a decent chance at netting a third consecutive #1 debut, since Chinese Democracy will be available exclusively at Best Buy's Web site and stores, whereas 808s will be everywhere.

MTV News recently reached out to U.K. betting company Ladbrokes and online-gaming purveyors Bodog Entertainment to see which album they favor for a #1 opening. Despite West's immense popularity, the numerous leaks of Chinese Democracy over the years and GN'R's Best Buy deal, oddsmakers from both companies said Guns' LP has the best chance of scoring a chart-topping debut.

Bodoglife.com Sportsbook manager Richard Gardner put the odds at -130 in favor of Guns — which is basically the same thing as saying there's a 56 percent chance that Axl will outsell West. Meanwhile, he put the odds at -110 for a Kanye West win, or a 52 percent chance that his album will enter the chart at the peak position.

"We would quote 1/3 on Guns N' Roses, and 5/2 on Kanye West," said Nick Weinberg, head of Ladbrokes' novelty betting division. "So we make Guns N' Roses the favorite to top the charts in the week immediately after the release, due to the massive sense of anticipation surrounding the album. A lot of people have been waiting a long time for it."

[This story was originally published on 11.20.08 at 8 a.m. ET.]

https://web.archive.org/web/20081202000332/http://www.mtv.com/news/articles/1599776/20081119/guns_n_roses.jhtml

Another related article on MTV News, also November 25:
-----------------------------------------------------------

Kanye West Vs. Guns N' Roses: Akon, Jonas Brothers, Ne-Yo Weigh In On Chart Battle

'I want to pull for both of them,' Jordin Sparks says, before leaning toward GN'R.

By Chris Harris, with reporting by Jeff Cornell

Will it be Guns N' Roses or Kanye West?

That was the question on everybody's minds Sunday night outside Los Angeles' Nokia Theatre, just before the start of the 36th annual American Music Awards. With two of the year's biggest releases dropping within the past 48 hours — GN'R's more-than-16-years-in-the-making Chinese Democracy and Mr. West's 808s & Heartbreak — the battle for Billboard's coveted peak position is on.

Music-industry insiders are paying close attention, because no one knows for sure who will end up opening at #1 when sales figures are released December 3. Could Rose's long-awaited opus outsell the latest album from one of hip-hop's biggest MCs? We surveyed several of the performers, winners and presenters during Sunday's AMAs to find out who they're backing in next week's Billboard showdown. Not surprisingly, most of those who spoke with us said they think it will be a tight race but one that will eventually end with Kanye walking away the victor.

"Oh, I don't know," "American Idol" winner Jordin Sparks said when asked who she thought would sell more records. "Guns N' Roses have some pretty avid fans, but so does Kanye. I want to pull for both of them, but I'm going to say Guns N' Roses, maybe. Kanye will probably hate me now. Crap."

Last week, MTV News learned that Geffen Records, which issued Democracy on Sunday as a Best Buy exclusive, would be holding on to GN'R's first-day sales figures until November 30, the same day West's label will report his week-one sales to Nielsen SoundScan. Typically, albums are released in the U.S. on Tuesdays and SoundScan tracks weekly sales data from Monday through Sunday, meaning that most albums' debut spots on the Billboard chart are based on six sales days. At first, most assumed day-one sales of Chinese Democracy would be reported next week and released the morning of November 26.

"We've got an undeniable producer, an undeniable hip-hop artist, and we've got history," Ne-Yo said, while weighing the matchup Sunday. "Damn, man — I don't know. It's going to be a hell of a fight. I mean, I guess Guns N' Roses needed time to get everything together, so as long as the album's good. ... If you wait that long, you need to come out with something fantastic. I can't even make a prediction on that one."

Fray frontman Isaac Slade thinks West has the best shot at opening on top but admitted that it could go Guns' way, because "16 years is a long time to wait for a record." The-Dream was very confident in his prediction: "Kanye West. I think he'll come out on top, by just a little bit."

One of Axl Rose's contemporaries, Mötley Crüe's Vince Neil, was just as conflicted about it but thinks West will down Democracy. Of course, Neil and Rose have had their differences in the past.

"It will probably be close, but Kanye will probably take it," he said. "The thing about Guns N' Roses is, it's not really Guns N' Roses. If Slash and Duff were still in it, I'd be a little more excited. Hopefully, it's a good album. I hope it's worth it, because they spent a lot of money and a lot of time on it. I like to record in two weeks, so I never second-guess myself.

Colbie Caillat thinks both acts have a fair shot at #1 but tends to side with Kanye in next week's battle, because "people love him." Joe Jonas of the Jonas Brothers wouldn't pick one name over the other, instead wishing "great things for both of these legendary artists." He did, however, follow that up by saying, "We've been listening to Kanye's new record," and that they're all "excited to get it for ourselves."

Akon also had a hard time picking a favorite. "That's a tough one," he said. "I'll buy both. I'm sure I'm not the only person who thinks that way. Kanye's always definitely been a guy who goes outside the box. And Guns N' Roses are legends, of course. That's a tough one."

For actor Terrence Howard, it wasn't so much a question of who, but when. "It would have been Guns N' Roses 15 years ago, hands down, but the mood has changed," he said. "Kanye has a lot of people anticipating his record. I think Kanye will open bigger, but I think Guns N' Roses has a bigger fanbase, and they will catch up [to West's sales] within the next month."

https://web.archive.org/web/20081230193754/http://www.mtv.com/news/articles/1600146/20081124/guns_n_roses.jhtml