It’s no surprise that midterm elections have historically been a referendum on the sitting president’s political party. Since 1934, the president’s party has, on average, lost four Senate seats and a whopping 28 House seats. What’s more: there have been only three midterm elections in which the president’s political party gained House seats and six midterm elections in which the president gained Senate seats.
But this year’s midterm deviates drastically from past midterm elections. Heading into Election Day, Republicans predicted a massive red wave, and numerous pollsters and pundits predicted that this election would be heavily tilted against Democrats. However, a week after Election Day, President Joe Biden and Democrats are poised to maintain control of the Senate and either lose the House of Representatives by a slim margin or barely hold onto it.
No matter how one slices the results of this midterm, it is clear that Democrats outperformed expectations and historical patterns. What is also clear is that based on the data so far — and it’s important to underscore that full results won’t be known for a couple of weeks — is that young voters were a significant factor in Democrats’ success.
The bottom line: If it weren’t for young people voting in droves, it is very possible that the nation would have witnessed a red wave. And while some may be surprised at the influence of young voters, recent turnout and the current political environment point to a strong likelihood of a high turnout among young people.
Starting in 2018, young people have played a role in helping Democrats win, with a historic 28% of young people turning out to vote that year, according to an estimate from the nonpartisan Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning & Engagement, or CIRCLE. Indeed, that is what led to Democrats flipping control of Congress. That trend continued into 2020 with a record-breaking 50% of eligible young people casting votes — which proved critical in helping elect Biden to the presidency. And this year’s midterm is on track to be yet another example of young people showing up in high numbers — helping Democrats retain the Senate and limiting their losses in the House.
The turnout rate among young people this year is projected to be the second-highest for a midterm election, with nearly 27% of young people voting, according to a recent CIRCLE estimate. Although some might dismiss this number because it’s lower than that of 2018, let’s look at the turnout of young Democrats and young Republicans.
Based on the tabulations of early votes and mail-in ballots, young Democrats turned out at a far higher rate than young Republicans. Consider Michigan: Comparing 2018 and 2022, almost 49,000 more young Democrats voted early or absentee this year; Republican gains equaled only slightly more than 3,000 votes, according to Democratic political data firm TargetSmart. Pennsylvania and Arizona’s early and absentee voter reporting also indicates that young Democrats turned out at a far higher rate than young Republicans.
It’s not only early and mail-in votes that demonstrate young people preferred Democrats at a higher rate. Many exit polls tell a similar story, especially in battleground states. For example, in Arizona, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania, upward of 70% of young people said they voted for Democrats. In Georgia, Wisconsin and Nevada, a majority of young voters said they voted for Democratic candidates.
And it’s unsurprising. Starting with the overturning of Roe v. Wade and the fact that the vast majority of Republicans have voted against bills that address issues such as climate change, gun reform and reproductive rights, more young people feel like they have no home in the Republican Party. It’s hard for young people to support a political party that seems to only work against our interests and values.
At the same time, the Biden administration and Democrats have taken noteworthy actions to show young voters that they care about our lives: investing a historic amount in combating climate change through the Inflation Reduction Act, forgiving student loan debt and pardoning those convicted of simple marijuana possession. Young people care deeply about these issues.
The Biden administration and Democrats have also invested heavily in recruiting young influencers to amplify their message. Days before the election, the Democratic National Committee assembled a group of online activists and gave them the tools they needed to publicize the administration’s successes and encourage people to vote. Meeting young people where they are requires going to online spaces and using messengers young people listen to — and Democrats did that.
As instrumental of a role young people had in this election, Gen Z is far from done. In a couple of weeks, Democratic U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock and Republican challenger Herschel Walker will face each other again in a runoff election in Georgia. And just like in 2020, turnout among young people will be pivotal.
Gen Z and millennials are on track to outnumber any other generation by 2024. That means that our political power is only growing — and the need for Democrats to invest in us and address our concerns is all the more critical. Because, after all, there is no path to victory for Democrats in elections going forward without young people.
For now, though, we celebrate a generation that prevented a red wave and saved democracy. But Gen Z is not stopping here. Gen Z is only getting started.
Victor Shi, a junior at the University of California at Los Angeles, co-hosts the “iGen Politics” podcast. He is also a strategy director for Voters of Tomorrow, a Gen Z-led movement.
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