Jeremy Corbyn triumphs on LBC debate as Tony Blair warns against him

• Tony Blair: Labour out of power for 20 years if Jeremy Corbyn wins
• Left-wing candidate Jeremy Corbyn 17pts ahead of rivals in poll
• Corbyn would win with 53pc after second preferences counted
• Blair: Labour doesn't have to choose between power and principle
• Yvette Cooper rejects poll which leaves her third
• Who is Jeremy Corbyn?

Labour in crisis

Latest

Summary of how the day unfolded

• Jeremy Corbyn is 17 points ahead in a YouGov poll and triumphed during an LBC radio debate
• Tony Blair has suggested Labour could be left out of power for 20 years if he wins
• Jeremy Corbyn is ‘the Syriza of Britain’, Labour MP Tristram Hunt warns
• Labour has become a ‘suicide cult’, according to Darren Murphy, former special adviser to Tony Blair
• Rival candidate Yvette Cooper rejects the poll, saying it does not show the support she is getting
• MPs who nominated Jeremy Corbyn are ‘morons’, according to John McTernan, former special adviser to Tony Blair
• Jeremy Corbyn made a speech on his economic masterplan including plan to tax wealthy and big corporations
• Labour MP Margaret Beckett, who nominated Mr Corbyn, admits she wishes she hadn't
• Mary Creagh, who dropped out of leadership race, likens Labour to Millwall FC: 'nobody likes us, but we don't care'

Jeremy Corbyn triumphs during LBC debate

^{Jeremy Corbyn}

As the four leadership candidates went head-to-head on an LBC radio debate, Jeremy Corbyn triumped after one caller called him "a knight in shining armour". LBC host Iain Dale also said he was the only candidate able to give a straight answer. Our Chief Political Correspondent Christopher Hoper has the full run-down of what happened.

Jeremy Corbyn v Tony Blair

Our Deputy Political Editor Steven Swinford reports:

Labour faces 20 years out of power if it moves further towards the "leftist platform" of the 1980s, Tony Blair as warned as he mounted a bitter attack on the hard-left leadership candidate Jeremy Corbyn.

Mr Blair said that those who claimed that their heart was with Mr Corbyn should "get a transplant" as he dismissed the lifelong socialist as the "Tory preference" for the leadership contest.

Mr Corbyn hit back at Mr Blair, saying that the former Prime Minister has a "big problem" over the Chilcot inquiry into the Iraq War and criticisng his comments as "silly".

^{Shock poll puts Jeremy Corbyn ahead of Andy Burnham, Yvette Cooper and Liz Kendall}

It comes after a YouGov poll suggested that Jeremy Corbyn, the left-wing backbencher, is on course to secure a shock victory in the Labour leadership battle.

^{Jeremy Corbyn pictured in central London after shock lead in poll}

In his most significant intervention since the General Election, Mr Blair said that he would not choose to adopt an "old-fashioned" left-wing approach even if it could guarantee victory.

He also launched a scathing critique of Ed Miliband's leadership, describing Labour's election approach as old-fashioned enough to be from the Star Trek era and adding that it was "out of the playbook of the 1980s".

He highlighted the scale of the challenge facing Labour by comparing the party's defeat at the General Election to the early 1980s, when the late Baroness Thatcher won and the party lost four elections in a row.

He said: “After the 1979 election the Labour party persuaded itself of something absolutely extraordinary.

“The Labour party persuaded itself that the reason why the country had voted for Margaret Thatcher was because they wanted a really left wing Labour party.

“This is what I call the theory that the electorate is stupid, that somehow they haven’t noticed that Margaret Thatcher was somewhat to the right of Jim Callaghan.

“There’s no need to go through four election defeats to get to the place that it’s pretty obvious we should be now."

He said that Labour must not "move back" and needs to resist the "easy and enormously tempting urge" to become a "party of protest" rather than a credible opposition.

He said: “If we do, then the public won’t vote for us, not because our thoughts are too pure, but because they’re too out of touch with the world they live in,” he said.

“We won elections when we had an agenda that was driven by values but informed by modernity. When we had strength and clarity of purpose; when we were reformers not just investors in public services; when we gave working people rights at work including the right to join a union, but refused unions a veto over policy; when we understand and understood business created jobs not governments. And where we were the change-makers, not the small ‘c’ conservatives of the left.”

He added: “I would not win on an old-fashioned leftist platform. Even if I thought it was a route to victory, I would not take it. The speed of change requires new thinking. And 2015 is not 2007 or 1997. So yes, move on – but do not move back.”

Mr Blair also re-opened his feud with Tom Watson, the Labour MP who is favourite to become the party's deputy leader, by suggesting that the role should go to a woman.

Mr Watson was one of those behind the efforts to oust Mr Blair at the end of his reign as prime minister and to replace him with Gordon Brown.

Mr Blair also criticised the SNP, describing nationalism as "cave man" politics and saying that Labour must attack the record of Nicola Sturgeon's government in Scotland.

He said that the party should not use the success of the SNP and Ukip as an excuse to tack to the left.

3.47pm

'Labour is like Millwall Football Club – nobody likes us but we don't care'

Labour's situation could still get worse, Mary Creagh, who dropped out of the Labour leadership contest, has said.

^{Mary Creagh}

In a New Statesman article, she admitted that the party is in a "horrible place" but added: "Labour is not yet in the place where we can say with confidence: 'The only way is up.' Early findings from the 'lessons learned' report commissioned by Harriet suggest that voters think that Labour simply does not understand their lives. We are in danger of becoming the political equivalent of Millwall Football Club. Their chant? 'No one likes us, we don’t care'.”

3.22pm

Jeremy Corbyn is Labour's 'anti-politics'

This just in from the Mirror's Jason Beattie:

3.18pm

Oh no! Has Lembit Öpik just cursed Jeremy Corbyn's leadership campaign?

^{Lembit Opik}

It seems every candidate former Liberal Democrat MP Lembit Öpik has ever endorsed has lost. Has he just cursed Jeremy Corbyn's campaign with this tweet?

2.30pm

'Of course Corbyn is leading – he's the only one with charm and vision'

One of the country’s top experts on the Labour Party and political leadership has said it is no surprise Jeremy Corbyn is doing so well.

Professor John Gaffney

, professor of politics at Aston University, says:

Of course Corbyn is the most popular candidate for leader. The other three contenders – Burnham, Cooper and Kendall – lack charm and persuasive rhetoric, but Corbyn has the charisma and language to capture hearts. His popularity is a symptom of lack of inspiration in the other candidates.

“The party really had no idea what they were letting themselves in for. They didn’t just let a left-winger in the debate, but a political philosopher, something that’s been missing from the party recently. It’s their mistake that they didn’t realise this earlier, and now they’re dealing with the consequences of a wildcard on their hands.”

^{Jeremy Corbyn has 'charm and vision'}

But can Labour ever repeat the success of its 1997 electoral victory?

Could they ever be that successful again? Of course. But they’re doing everything not to be. Blair had a vision. Blair had a narrative. Blair had charm. The level of disunity in the party might not be anything new, but today’s 24 hour news culture, dominated by social media, means that dirty laundry gets aired very publicly.

“Labour must pause for reflection if they really want to improve their fortunes. At the moment they are rushing headlong into disaster. Get your narrative right, unify the party, and reach out to voters using the persuasive, charming rhetoric Blair was so good at.”

2.21pm

What today's shock poll reveals

Jeremy Corbyn is the favourite amongst Labour Party members and Trade Union affiliates alike, but it is clear that he has much more support from the latter. This is how the first preferences break down:

Once Liz Kendall is eliminated from the race, second preference support still gives Jeremy Corbyn a strong lead:

After elimating Yvette Cooper, Jeremy Corbyn would win over rival Andy Burnham, but as this chart shows, their support is neck-and-neck amongst party members:

1.51pm

A little bit of good news for Yvette

^{Yvette Cooper}

The latest poll of Labour councillors suggests Yvette Cooper is now narrowly favoured as party leader – but with support for Jeremy Corbyn growing.

Anglia Ruskin’s Labour History Research Unit (LHRU) conducted the survey of Labour councillors across the UK between July 16 and 20, 294 of whom took part. These councillors were based in the 125 Parliamentary constituencies Labour won by the narrowest margin and the 125 constituencies they lost by the narrowest margin. They were asked to indicate how they would vote using Labour’s Alternative Vote method.

The results show Ms Cooper would take 52.1% of the vote in a tight final run-off with Andy Burnham, who polled the highest score (30.95%) in the opening round. Liz Kendall, who was named the candidate most feared by the Conservatives in a poll previously conducted by the LHRU in June, was eliminated in the first round with 13.95% of the vote.

Jeremy Corbyn was eliminated in the second round of voting having polled 25.17% in the first round, but saw his share of the initial vote rise by 6% compared to the last LHRU poll in June.

Historian Dr Richard Carr, of the LHRU, said: “This poll confirms that Jeremy Corbyn is making strides on Andy Burnham in terms of being the candidate of the left. When you add in the ‘Tories for Corbyn’ factor and the negative coverage of his stance on the welfare bill, the bookies favourite looks in a worse position than a month ago.

“More worryingly for Burnham, we have Corbyn’s second preference votes splitting evenly between him and Yvette Cooper too. If Yvette can continue to hold enough second preference Kendall voters, we may be in for a mini-Cooper shock.”

1.34pm

Jeremy Corbyn's first wife: Yvette Cooper might be getting my vote

Rosa Prince, Assistant Political Editor, gets in touch:

I've just been speaking to Comrade Jeremy's first wife, Jane Chapman.

The couple got together when they were both Labour councillors in north London the 1970s and married in Haringey Town Hall.

She says they were "political soul mates," but the marriage floundered due to his "100 per cent" commitment to the cause, which left little time for anything else.

She's not decided yet whether she'll vote for him, saying it might be time for Labour to have a woman and Yvette Cooper appeals. Andy Burnham is also "attractive," although she admits she may not bother voting at all.

1.28pm

'I wish I hadn't nominated Jeremy Corbyn'

Labour MP Margaret Beckett has just told BBC Radio 4's World at One programme that she is "beginning to wish I hadn't nominated Jeremy Corbyn".

^{Margaret Beckett}

She was among the handful of Labour MPs who nominated Mr Corbyn at the eleventh hour to ensure he had the 35 nominations needed to get onto the ballot paper.

Today she said:

If Jeremy had been a long way behind, I don’t think the thought of nominating him would have crossed my mind. I had no intention of making him my nomination. But, then when it looked as if he might almost be able to stand but then not be able to, I was concerned that people would feel they had been deprived of the opportunity for that point of view to be aired. And I do think it is and will be healthy for the party to thrash out this dialogue about austerity, or not austerity, or what it means, etc etc. So that was the reason that I gave the nomination. But, yes, I’m beginning to wish that I hadn’t, I’ll be quite honest about it.

The MPs who nominated him were described earlier as "morons" by John McTernan, a former adviser to Tony Blair.

In a scathing attack, he said: "The moronic MPs who nominated Jeremy Corbyn to ‘have a debate’ need their heads felt. They should be ashamed of themselves. They’re morons.”

1.07pm

Latest pictures: Jeremy Corbyn

These pictures just in show Jeremy Corbyn leaving the Royal College of Nursing in central London:

1pm

Corbyn says Blair's remarks are "very unfortunate"

Jeremy Corbyn has reacted to Tony Blair's comments this morning saying it is "very unfortunate that people use these kind of remarks":

12.43

Revealed: What qualities do you prize in a Labour leader?

We already know that Jeremy Corbyn is 17 points ahead in the YouGov poll, but what did those surveyed believe are the most prized qualities in a future Labour leader? Here's an interesting breakdown of what they said:

James Kirkup has more analysis and asks, does Labour actually want to win the election?

12.34

SNP's Mhairi Black, Britain's youngest-ever MP, just slapped down Tony Blair's record

Tony Blair "dragged Labour so far to the right that it was barely recognisable", Britain's youngest MP Mhairi Black said on the day that the former prime minister urged the Labour Party not to lurch to the left by supporting Jeremy Corbyn's leadership bid.

The 20-year-old SNP MP said: "Tony Blair must still be smarting from Labour losing the Scottish Parliament election to the SNP in 2007 when he was Prime Minister, and had dragged Labour so far to the right that it was barely recognisable.

^{Mhairi Black, Britain's youngest MP}

"And Tony Blair's legacy still haunts and damages Labour today, and led them into the sorry position of not even voting against the Tories' welfare cuts and budget bills this week - leaving the SNP as the real and effective opposition to the Tory government.

"On any reading of his record, Tony Blair was the one with the primitive policy - dragging the country into an illegal war in Iraq, at the cost of hundreds of thousands of lives and causing massive instability to the region, the ramifications of which we continue to live with."

12.11pm

Bets on that 'Labour leader' Jeremy Corbyn would be gone before the next election

Bookies William Hill have slashed the price of Jeremy Corbyn being named as the next Labour leader from an original 200/1 into 5/2. Mr Corbyn was first offered at 200/1 on June 4 with five shrewd customers backing him at that price.

The turmoil in the Labour leadership has strengthened the Conservatives’ position and they have shortened from 4/11 to 4/9 to win the most seats at the next General Election – whilst it is 6/1 that we have two Labour leadership elections before the next General Election.

“Jeremy Corbyn has shortened on a daily basis and he could become favourite in the next few days,” said William Hill spokesman Rupert Adams.

Next Permanent Labour Leader: Evens Andy Burnham, 5/2 Jeremy Corbyn, 5/2 Yvette Cooper, 20/1 Liz Kendall

Most Seats At The Next General Election: 4/11 Conservative, 9/4 Labour, 250/1 Lib Dems, 250/1 UKIP, 500/1 Green

General Election Betting: 5/4 No Overall Majority, 11/8 Conservative Majority, 100/30 Labour Majority, 500/1 Lib Dem Majority, 500/1 UKIP Majority

12.06pm

How Tony Blair's comments could help Jeremy Corbyn win

We've been chatting to Dr Matthew Ashton, a political expert at Nottingham Trent University, about the potential impact Tony Blair's comments today will have on Jeremy Corbyn's support. It's fair to say that he suggests that Mr Corbyn's supporters will not listen to anything he has to say.

^{Dr Matthew Ashton, politics expert here at Nottingham Trent University}

Here's Dr Ashton's thoughts:

Tony Blair's attack on Jeremy Corbyn's radical leftism is problematic for several reasons. The sort of people who want to vote for someone like Jeremy Corbyn are never going to listen to anything Tony Blair has to say. This is the reason Blair hasn't endorsed a specific candidate. He probably – and rightly – thinks it would do more harm than good.

“People do like Yvette Cooper, Andy Burnham and Liz Kendall, but no one is really passionate about them in the same way they're passionate about Corbyn, or were about Tony Blair long ago. Blair doesn’t seem to be offering much in the way of an alternative apart from a return to ‘Blairism’. Many on the right of the party would argue that Blairism won the party three elections in a row, and is therefore worth revisiting. However Cameron and Osborne have made a huge effort in the last few years to successfully occupy this ground. It would be difficult for Labour to offer Blairism as an alternative if the Conservatives were effectively already delivering a variation on it.

“Finally there's also the fact that there appears to be a growing feeling among some that 2020 is already lost and that voting for Corbyn might be a 'scorched earth' policy, proving once and for all that leftist policies don't win elections in modern Britain. Then 2025 would be up for grabs.”

12pm

Lunchtime summary

Labour has become a “suicide cult” and the MPs who backed Jeremy Corbyn are “morons”. Those are some of the words we’ve been hearing this morning as the party is left reeling from the news that the leftwinger has emerged as the new frontrunner in the leadership contest, with a poll putting him 17 points ahead of rival Andy Burnham.

^{Jeremy Corbyn}

So what have we learnt so far?

• Jeremy Corbyn is 17 points ahead in a YouGov poll. See 7.08am

• Tony Blair has suggested Labour could be left out of power for 20 years if he wins. See 9.47am

• Jeremy Corbyn is ‘the Syriza of Britain’, Labour MP Tristram Hunt warns. See 7.55am

• Labour has become a ‘suicide cult’, according to Darren Murphy, former special adviser to Tony Blair. See 9.35am

• Rival candidate Yvette Cooper rejects the poll, saying it does not show the support she is getting. See 7.20am

• MPs who nominated Jeremy Corbyn are ‘morons’, according to John McTernan, former special adviser to Tony Blair. See 11.09am

• Jeremy Corbyn makes speech on his economic masterplan. See 10.30am

11.45am

Ken Livingstone: Tony Blair 'had no heart'

This morning Tony Blair suggested that people who say their "hearts is with Corbyn" need to "get a transplant".

^{Ken Livingstone}

Former London mayor Ken Livingstone has turned Mr Blair's words around though:

11.12am

Where are the MPs who backed Jeremy Corbyn?

^{Michael Meacher MP}

Christopher Hope, our Chief Political Correspondent, writes:

Where are all the Labour MPs who backed Jeremy Corbyn? Why aren’t they cheering the advance of the hard left MP? So far only Michael Meacher has picked up the phone. This happened:

Daily Telegraph: We are asking people who supported him – do you think he might win?

Michael Meacher: I am not commenting on this – not to The Daily Telegraph anyway.

[Phone line goes dead]

11.09am

MPs who nominated Corbyn are 'morons'

The MPs who nominated Jeremy Corbyn at the eleventh hour so he could join the leadership race are "morons", John McTernan, a former adviser to Tony Blair, has said.

In a scathing attack, he said: "The moronic MPs who nominated Jeremy Corbyn to ‘have a debate’ need their heads felt. They should be ashamed of themselves. They’re morons.”

10.47am

Jeremy Corbyn: Tony Blair's Iraq problem gives him no right to comment on Labour issues

Tony Blair has no right to comment on Labour issues because we are still awaiting publication of the Chilcot Inquiry report into the Iraq War, Jeremy Corbyn has said.

Mr Corbyn, now the frontrunner in the Labour leadership contest, hit back after the former prime minister suggested that the party could be in opposition for 20 years if Mr Corbyn were to win.

The 66-year-old said: "Tony should look at what he is saying. Look at the situation in Britain with one million people relying on foodbanks and adult social care in crisis. We can't keep offering an austerity light alternative for the future.

"Tony's big problem is that we are still waiting for the Chilcot report to come out.

"I thought he would have managed something more serious than those rather silly remarks."

Tony Blair's former spokesman Alastair Campbell has waded into the debate too:

10.45am

Jeremy Corby is 'sexy in an old sea dog sort of way'

It seems that Mr Corbyn is not only popular in the polls, but he is an unlikely hit with mums over at the website Mumsnet. One described him as being attractive in a "world weary old sea dog sort of way", while another says "there's just something about him".

^{Jeremy vs Dumbledore?}

"He's definitely attractive", write another, while one adds: "If you half fancied Dumbledore, Corbyn is probably in the same area."

My colleague Dillon Leet has the full story.

10.35am

Five things Jeremy Corbyn will say on economy

My colleague Dillon Leet reports that Jeremy Corbyn will this morning make these soundbites:

We will be able to ask those with income and wealth to spare to contribute a little more"

"We must ensure that those with the most, pay the most"

"Talk about a "Northern Powerhouse" is largely southern hot air."

"Austerity is a political choice not an economic necessity."

"When there are tough choices, we will always protect public services."

10.30am

Latest: Jeremy Corbyn will tax the wealthy as he unveils his economic masterplan

As he soars 17 points ahead in the latest poll, Jeremy Corbyn is about to announce his plans to tax the wealthy as he sets out his economic plans. His plan will include:

• Raise taxes on wealthier households and businesses

• Massively reduce corporate tax relief and subsidies, and use the extra revenue to establish a National Investment Bank that will promote infrastructure upgrades and support innovation

• A crackdown on tax avoidance and evasion, including stricter rules for small businesses

• Reversing the cuts to staff in HMRC and at Companies house, to make it easier for HMRC to collect more taxes

• Country-by-country reporting for multinational corporations

9.47am

Labour could spend 20 years out of power

Labour could spend 20 years out of power unless it accepts the need to win over Conservative voters, Tony Blair has suggested. He said that "there's no need for Labour to go through four election defeats" to realise that it needs to win over Tory voters.

On the prospect of leftwinger Jeremy Corbyn becoming the next Labour leader, Mr Blair said that it was "like going back to Star Trek or something. Back to the old days." He added: "People who say their heart is with Corbyn, get a transplant."

What do you think?

Tweet your views to me at

@ThatMichaelW

. Here are some of the best comments so far:

9.45am

Who should be Labour's deputy leader?

In a swipe at his old enemy Tom Watson, Tony Blair has suggested that the next deputy leader of the Labour Party should be a woman, reports my colleague Steven Swinford.

^{Tom Watson}

Mr Watson, who was at the centre of the war between Mr Blair and Gordon Brown, is currently the favourite for the role.

Here I look at who else is in the running for the deputy leadership contest.

9.35am

Labour seen as a 'suicide cult'

Labour looks like it has been "taken over by a suicide cult", Darren Murphy, a former special adviser to Tony Blair, has warned.

He said: "I have been a member of the Labour Party for more than 30 years and I can't remember a moment where people have felt so disillusioned about our chances.

"Tony Blair has quite a lot to tell us about how to win. There isn't a choice between principle and power and that is a very important message."

He said Jeremy Corbyn being leader of the Labour Party is "ludicrously unthinkable".

9.33am

Corbyn 'moving ever closer' in betting market

Bookmaker Paddy Power has slashed his odds from 3/1 into 2/1 and he now stands second in the betting behind Andy Burnham. Mr Burnham remains steady at the top of the betting but has drifted to odds-against at 11/10 from 5/6 whilst Yvette Cooper is a narrow third at 9/4. Liz Kendall is the outsider of the four and drifting all the time – now priced at 14/1. A spokesman for Paddy Power said: “Corbyn had a minor blip earlier this week as his price drifted for the first time since betting began but he’s back on Burnham’s tail now and moving ever closer.”

9.26am

Tony Blair: Labour must take on 'cave man' nationalism if it wants to win power

Tony Blair says that the Tories are "vulnerable" and will inevitably get "cocky". He says that their welfare reforms will "destroy lives", and that they would not happen under Labour.

He said that there's no need for Labour to go through four election defeats to realise that it needs to win over Tory voters.

He says he disagrees with Tristram Hunt, the shadow election secretary, that labour could "disappear" like Woolworths in Scotland. He says Labour must take the "ideology of nationalism head on". He said that nationalism is "cave man" politics which simply blames someone else.

He says that the SNP in Scotland are a government that is allowed to behave like an opposition. "We should be absolutely at them on that," he said.

A united front

Mr Blair says that the Labour Party must be united. There's no point in all holding hands trying to manage differences while the bus drives off a cliff.

He says that the Tories are doing things "we really don't like". On the welfare debate, he says people will suffer as a result of these cuts that he would have backed the Harriet Harman's decision to abstain on vote.

A leading role in Europe

Tony Blair says Europe needs reform and has mishandled the Greek crisis, but that should be the reason for Britain taking a leading role in Europe rather than leaving it.

He says that single currency could still be an option. It depends on the economics, he says. Britain should be at the centre of Europe, he says.

9.08am

This is the shock YouGov poll that has left Labour in disarray this morning. Jeremy Corbyn is well ahead, while Liz Kendall's support is so small that her name won't even fit onto our pie chart.

8.58am

Tony Blair: Don't lurch to the left

This just in from our Deputy Political Editor Steven Swinford who is with Tony Blair in central London, where the former Labour prime minister is addressing Labour members.

Tony Blair, the former Labour Prime Minister, has said that the party cannot win the election from a "traditional leftist position".

He said: "You win from the centre, you win when you appeal to a broad cross section of the public, you win when you support business as well as unions. You don't win from a traditional leftist position."

^{Tony Blair}

He warned that the party is in danger of "defending outdated policy with defending timeless values", warning against "radical leftism".

He said: "Let me make my position clear, I wouldn't want to win on an old fashioned leftist platform. Even if I thought that was the route to victory, I wouldn't take it."

Mr Blair highlighted how previous success for the party came when the it had an agenda "driven by modernity". He said: "When we had strength and clarity of purpose, when we were reformers not just investors in public services, when we gave working people rights at work including the right to join a union, but refused unions a veto over policy, when we understood that businesses created jobs not governments, and when we were the change makers."

Mr Blair said that the success of the SNP and Ukip has 'clouded our sense of direction because they seem to point away from the centre'. 'Take them head on,' he said.

He went on to say that it would not be 'appropriate' for him to endorse a specific candidate and admits that it might not be 'helpful' for them. He said: "It is easy and enormously tempting for the Labour Party to become a platform for protest. But if you don't fashion a credible platform for government they don't elect you."

What do you think?

Tweet your views to me at

@ThatMichaelW

and I'll share the best ones here in this live blog.

8.30am

Making sense of the shock poll

The New Statesman's deputy editor Helen Lewis and The Independent's chief political columnist Steve Richards have been on Radio4's Today programme analysing what the poll means.

Helen says:

It does echo what we are seeing in the constituencies with Jeremy Corbyn and Andy Burnham neck-and-neck and Liz Kendall a distant fourth. What is clear is that it is not going away. We've got another month to go. You can bring some quantum physics into this. By observing the race, it can change the race. Looking at this poll, people might change their minds.

I think it is unlikely Jeremy Corbyn will win the leadership. But it is interesting what it says about the other candidates. They haven't seized the momentum. The strategy with Yvette Cooper has been to go softly, softly and come down in the middle. Does it say that Labour has resigned itself to more than a single term in opposition?

Steve says:

We have to be careful about polls. When you talk about them, they influence what happens. This clearly gives Jeremy Corbyn more momentum. I've never met Labour MPs being more despondent than they were yesterday. They were in complete chaos over the welfare reforms but they also said to me they didn't think Jeremy Corbyn would win. If he casually won it would be extraordinary.

7.55am

Jeremy Corbyn 'is the Syriza of Britain'

Leftwinger Jeremy Corbyn has been likened to Syriza, the governing party of Greece, by Labour MP Tristram Hunt.

Mr Hunt, who is backing rival candidate Liz Kendall, said: "There is enthusiasm for Jeremy Corbyn and populist left parties right across Europe but for the Labour party our future cannot lie in a Podemos-style, anti-austerity party."

^{Tristram Hunt}

When asked by BBC Radio 4's Today programme whether Mr Corbyn was like the Syriza of Britain, he said: ""Yes, I think this is the populist, anti-austerity wing of the party and we've seen what happened to the Greek people."

But he warned: "Many people fear the consequences of that kind of parliament and Britain is not Greece or Spain."

Mr Hunt said the party must be a "broad church" and should not "retreat to its comfort zone" if it wants to win back Tory voters. He added: "The danger is that the Labour Party, one of the great governing parties of the 20th century, would be on a trajectory to becoming a pressure group and would not have that broad reach into all parts of the United Kingdom.

"We have to get lots of people who voted Tory in 2010 and 2015 to come to the Labour Party and you do that by having a broad church and not retreating to a comfort zone."

7.20am

Yvette Cooper rejects poll that puts her third

^{Yvette Cooper}

A spokesperson for Yvette Cooper has rejected the YouGov poll's findings:

This doesn’t reflect our internal data and significantly understates the huge number of members and supporters giving Yvette their first preference.

“However, what it does show is that Yvette is now the only candidate who can win the leadership election and then reach out to the wider electorate to win the general election in 2020. We won’t do that by shifting a narrow party further to the left or by returning to the dismal days of the 1980s, with internal party warfare and almost two decades of opposition.”

7.15am

Jeremy Corbyn's lead is 'disastrous'

John McTernan, a former special adviser to Tony Blair in Downing Street, told the BBC's Newsnight that the figures were "disastrous". He hinted that two other candidates should drop out in order to pool support in a bid to stop Mr Corbyn. He said: "These figures are disastrous for the Labour party, disastrous. The fact is the other candidates need to decide who is the ABC candidate – the Anyone but Corbyn candidate."

7.08am

Shock poll leaves Jeremy Corbyn 17 points ahead of his rivals

Left-winger Jeremy Corbyn is on track for victory in the Labour leadership contest, according to a poll.

Research by YouGov for The Times has found the backbench MP is the first preference for 43% of party supporters - way ahead of bookies' favourite Andy Burnham on 26%.

Shadow home secretary Yvette Cooper was on 20% and Liz Kendall just 11%.

The results, which are likely to fuel a growing sense of panic in Labour's Blairite wing, emerged after Mr Corbyn burnished his credentials with the Left by defying acting leader Harriet Harman to vote against the Government's Welfare Bill.

The other leadership candidates fell into line by backing the Opposition's "reasoned amendment" to the legislation - which was defeated - and then abstaining on whether it should progress to the next Commons stage.

Mr Corbyn, who struggled to find the 35 MP supporters required to feature on the ballot paper, is now the 2-1 second favourite with Ladbrokes to win the race - having previously been as long as 100-1.

He has been nominated by 71 local Labour associations - just one behind Mr Burnham.

John McTernan, a former special adviser to Tony Blair in Downing Street, told the BBC's Newsnight programme the figures were "disastrous".

He suggested two of the frontbenchers should consider dropping out in order to pool centrist support and block Mr Corbyn.

"These figures are disastrous for the Labour Party, disastrous. The fact is the other candidates need to decide who is the ABC candidate - the Anyone But Corbyn candidate," he said.

Mr McTernan also complained that party activists were "suicidally inclined" and condemned MPs who had "lent" their nominations to Mr Corbyn in order broaden the debate, even though they did not want him as leader.

"They need their heads felt," he said. "They are morons."

7am

Tony Blair to warn Labour against lurching to left

Tony Blair, the former Prime Minister, is expected to warn Labour against lurching to the left in an intervention which will be seen as a significant boost for moderniser Liz Kendall.

Mr Blair will say that Labour must win back the centre ground in his first intervention since the immediate aftermath of Labour's devastating election defeat.

^{Tony Blair to speak today}

It comes after nearly 50 Labour MPs, including 18 who won their seats in May, voted against the welfare bill as grandees warned that the party was in "emotional trauma" and faces the "most serious crisis" in its history.

George Osborne, the Chancellor, yesterday seized on Labour's woes over the welfare bill and accused the party of going "left, left, left".

The line was a deliberate reference to Michael Heseltine’s famous conference speech in which he claimed Labour was like a one-legged army limping from the battlefield.

Mr Blair will speak this morning at an event hosted by Progress, the modernising Labour think tank. He will be introduced by John Woodcock, the chairman of Progress and one of Miss Kendall's strongests upporters.

Our Deputy Political Editor Steven Swinford has the full story.