Vancouver housing bubble?

when condos are selling for 1000/sqft, sfh are bargains with land

seatiger wrote: ↑ 2228 Parker street
2002sqft detached built 1946
33x122 RS-7 lot
Ask $1,398,800
Sold $1,536,000 on 5-April after 9 days

2203 Grant street
2418sqft detached built 1927
33x112 RS-7 lot
Ask $1,299,000
Sold $1,425,000 on 12-April after 9 days

The realtors might have changed their game in terms of asking prices - put out a low initial asking price and wait for the bidding war to start. It would be interesting to see what the comps look like in the area (both current and a year ago) before jumping to any conclusions.

seatiger wrote: ↑ when condos are selling for 1000/sqft, sfh are bargains with land

hmm depends where.

when you buy a condo, you buy it for convenience.

when you buy a house, you buy it for the space/land.

it's a different market - I think.

Both theses houses sold for about assessment at 2016. 2015 assessment was 1M. So, probably a little off the top price, but definitely trending back towards the high level mark.

it's a different market - I think.

Of course they are different markets, but they are 'substitute goods'. Why buy a 3Bdrm TH when you can get a house for the same bucks? When the city rezones these lots, you double your money, while the TH gets hit with a 'special assessment'.

very tight supply in GVR this first half of month
listings are at 10 year low for each class, sfh, townhouse, and condo
http://vancitycondoguide.com/mid-april- ... te-update/

I think one of the stupid things that's artificially tightening the supply of SFR are all of those 'land assembly' houses looking to sell to a developer at unrealistic/lottery-winning type prices. Just along East Broadway there must be at least 40 to 50 houses 'for sale' but won't be sold to anyone as no developer is stupid enough to pay $3.5 million per house in those areas.

And everyone around them thinks they should get 4M, because their house on a quiet street was worth way more than East Broadway when they bought it. I.e. everyone is factoring in the rezoning even if they won't get approved.

craftsman wrote: ↑ I think one of the stupid things that's artificially tightening the supply of SFR are all of those 'land assembly' houses looking to sell to a developer at unrealistic/lottery-winning type prices. Just along East Broadway there must be at least 40 to 50 houses 'for sale' but won't be sold to anyone as no developer is stupid enough to pay $3.5 million per house in those areas.

Someone I know who has been watching this closely says that "land assembly" sales data are skewing the detached sales data because they can be significant when a whole block is sold and each property goes for quite a bit. I never thought of this before but it makes sense, especially when looking at Vancouver West Side statistics for detached homes.

Vancouver is heating up again -- was down for a bit... could be a dead cat's bounce or could be the start of a new (but be it probably much slower) uptrend.

choclover wrote: ↑ Someone I know who has been watching this closely says that "land assembly" sales data are skewing the detached sales data because they can be significant when a whole block is sold and each property goes for quite a bit. I never thought of this before but it makes sense, especially when looking at Vancouver West Side statistics for detached homes.

Besides the sales data in pure numbers, it's also holding back 'real' available inventory - ie those not really looking at the lottery ticket aspect but were looking to sell anyways at market pricing vs those who are more of a 'if some idiot wants to pay me $3.5 million...'. If they are part of a land assembly I can see them holding off a few months to see if anything happens.

Sanyo wrote: ↑ Vancouver is heating up again -- was down for a bit... could be a dead cat's bounce or could be the start of a new (but be it probably much slower) uptrend.

I think it's partly due to pent up demand over an ugly Winter as that will slow down the numbers. The other part is definitely the rise in any property under $750,000 (in that price range as well as the 'upgrade' range for those who just sold that $750,000 for more than they would have normally so they move into a $1 million property range).

Everyone in Vancouver is a potential buyer. Renters look for condos or detached. 30 year olds living with their parents look for condos or detached. Condo owners look for detached. Detached owners looking for investment property. My personal experience at the moment is buyers outnumber sellers 20 to 1. They all think they deserve a detached home in a desirable neighborhood. Detached homes in my neighborhood is being divided up into rental housing which results in lack of street parking and unfamiliar faces walking to the bus stops in the morning hours. Condos towers are being stuffed with out of towners with work permits, student visas, and PR hopefuls resulting in elevator nightmares. Anyone else wants to share their personal experiences?

Royal Lepage just published a study about Vancouver home prices. Here's a nice summary - http://www.ottawacitizen.com/business/c ... ilter=5609

Basically, they are thinking that the price and the volume will be increasing but then Royal Lepage is a realty firm so they echo what most realtors tell their clients at this time of the market - 'prices are moving up so better get in when you can'.

Here's a few interesting quotes -

While the region posted a sizable year-over-year aggregate home price gain of 12.3 per cent to $1,179,482, home values declined on a quarterly basis for the first time since 2013, dropping 1.9 per cent.
When broken down by housing type, the median price of a two-storey home and bungalow in Greater Vancouver climbed 10.3 per cent and 17.1 per cent year-over-year to $1,503,146 and $1,360,320 in the first quarter of 2017, respectively. Condominiums within the region also witnessed significant price appreciation, increasing by 14.0 per cent to $543,136 over the same period.

In West Vancouver, the aggregate price of a home rose 11.7 per cent year-over-year to $3,306,286 during the first quarter of 2017. After a surge in pricing in 2016, West Vancouver condominiums were the only market segment in Greater Vancouver to see a year-over-year decline, with the median price dropping 8.3 per cent to $1,042,418, as the region's eroded affordability enticed buyers to look elsewhere. Together, the aggregate price in the region experienced the largest quarterly drop in home price appreciation, declining by 3.2 per cent.

The West Van condo numbers shows that there is definite softness in a few segments of the condo market. You don't see a 8.3% drop everyday!

While home values rose by 8.8 per cent year-over-year in Burnaby, the aggregate home price dropped back below the $1-million threshold to $992,837, as the region declined on a quarterly basis. Recently, declining detached home values have given many move-up buyers in the condominium segment a chance to purchase a freehold property, as the price gap between the two continues to shrink.

We see the effects of the new home buyers interest free loans creating that knock-on effect at the higher price bracket.

How Tokyo achieves the world's most livable city... and $300,000 NEW homes.

It appears that the west/east price divide will continue to widen while the condo/detached price divide within desirable neighborhoods will close. It goes back to location. Desirable neighborhoods attract desirable demographics such as wealthy, high income stable families, and will always be in demand.

atomiton wrote: ↑ How Tokyo achieves the world's most livable city... and $300,000 NEW homes.

japan zoning laws are super good, thats what we need in canada to provide supply

seatiger wrote: ↑ japan zoning laws are super good, thats what we need in canada to provide supply

Well, in urban areas yeah... we gotta get over the 33-40' lot size with 3 suites and a laneway home. A SFH should be for a single family... NEW houses in Tokyo proper cost $300,000!! It's not as if any of those "Spacious" East Vancouver backyards are used for anything other than a walkway between the garage and the main unit.

Ugh, the Vancouver special is sooo ugly.

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-esta ... drawer-map
https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-esta ... ard-avenue
a lot of listings are like these, plus run down ugly houses, so actual supply is even lower...

seatiger wrote: ↑ https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-esta ... drawer-map
https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-esta ... ard-avenue
a lot of listings are like these, plus run down ugly houses, so actual supply is even lower...

The realtors must be desperate to accept listings like those.

1.9% mortgage for 30 years? WHERE DO I SIGN UP!!??!?!