The announcement of an underground nuclear test explosion by North Korea is the latest setback in the American effort to prevent the acquisition of doomsday weapons by one of the world’s most bellicose and aggressive dictators. But therein lies the problem: While the United States has made a priority of blocking Pyongyang’s dangerous march, other countries with more influence have not. Everyone is wondering what North Korea will do next. A more urgent question is: What will China do?
China remains one of this isolated regime’s few friends. Beijing is not enthusiastic about its quest for nuclear weapons, but it is even more averse to anything that might cause the regime to collapse, flooding China with refugees. So the Chinese have been reluctant to use their economic leverage by cutting off their shipments of oil and food to North Korea. In fact, says American Enterprise Institute scholar Nicholas Eberstadt, Beijing has been quietly boosting its financial assistance.
Instead of squeezing Kim Jong Il, it has preferred to try reasoning with him in the framework of the six-party talks, which include the U.S., Japan, South Korea and Russia, as well as China and North Korea. And the administration, lacking many options, has let China take the lead.
That strategy now stands exposed as an unmitigated failure. Last year, the North Koreans promised to stop their nuclear program, admit international inspectors and rejoin the international nuclear non-proliferation treaty. But like many past promises, these proved worthless. In January, North Korea said it wouldn’t talk unless Washington lifted financial restrictions meant to stop counterfeiting and other illegal conduct.
Since then, things have gotten worse. In July, spurning a request from China, North Korea test-fired a new intercontinental ballistic missile. Last week, China warned against a nuclear test. That warning also went unheeded. To add insult to injury, Kim Jong Il timed the blast to coincide with the visit to Beijing of the new Japanese prime minister.
The Chinese should not need to be told why the test is a grim development for them as well as everyone else. North Korea’s atomic arsenal will undoubtedly force Japan, which has long had tense relations with China, to reconsider whether it needs a nuclear deterrent of its own. South Korea could do the same thing. The test may also embolden North Korea to behave even more recklessly than in the past, fostering a new instability in the region that would hobble China’s economic growth.
But there are other grave risks as well. One is that North Korea, which has few sources of hard currency, may be willing to sell warheads on the black market, which would be a threat to everyone on the planet. Another is that it may underestimate Washington’s determination to protect South Korea and Japan, precipitating war and even nuclear cataclysm.
North Korea will be encouraged if the United Nations fails to respond with much more severe military sanctions than it has already imposed on the regime. But even if the UN tries to fit North Korea for a noose, it will fail unless China fully backs the effort. The Chinese denounced the nuclear test in unusually strong terms. But the North Koreans have heard harsh condemnations before and have a record of ignoring them. This time, China can’t just talk, it has to squeeze.
