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UPDATE for 2019: In 25 years since crime bill passed, at least 180,000 lives potentially saved *Public link
https://tinyurl.com/jails-police-save-lives
Other similar research
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/126uhTSpBJL6tbhQJBEg0rCoK-YYczERUjnqAhCgkRCQ/edit#gid=285194517
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UPDATE: Murders for 2020 are predicted to be up near 20,000 (or near early 1990s levels), with an approx. 20-25% one-year increase
Contact me
organica.design@gmail.com
chi arrests >
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FU0YyGjJE_lrCJl0tWtpnQtomLpaKlp_3gyjuM_odGY/edit#gid=219309145
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1J1aABMkcSn9GFA_kjjIHZLyEJb5XwCaZtLPwIUMrUcI/edit#gid=1559429385
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VICTIMS are often forgotten in discussions of Mass Incarceration, the 1994 Crime Bill (which had the support in Congress of Democrats and two-thirds of the Black Caucus), and criminal justice in general. QUESTION ANSWERED IN THIS SPREADSHEET: If the criminal homicide rate remained at 1990-94 levels, how many more homicides would have occurred in total by 2017? (Or another way of asking: How many lives have been saved, potentially?) ** SOURCE
http://www.disastercenter.com/crime/uscrime.htm
Other sources:
https://ourworldindata.org/homicides
See more charts on this tab of spreadsheet:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WxxT6FjbrL7YQOn7eGnnYjnnLkgLaZzg3pRd44EdC3Y/edit#gid=2009559636
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Average Homicides 1990-199423,952Tabulate difference from early 1990s average for each year20037,42420119,291Explanation of crime drop? I wrote about it here while slowly realizing (through research) that I was watching propaganda in "The 13th" by Ava DuVernay. Ever since 2016, I've only seen that myths of "White Supremacy" perpetrated and the evils of the carcal state excaerbated -- all while the murder totals increased exponentially and experts saying "no crime wave."Chart below shows links from Leavitt data in the caption. From Medium article linked to the left, "“The 13th” and its Glaring Omission: Actual Crime that Mirrors Demographics"
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Murders 2014 (lowest since 1968)14,16419952,34220047,80420129,086
https://medium.com/@agent.orange.chicago/the-13th-and-its-glaring-omission-actual-crime-that-mirrors-demographics-1cc0004032c9
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Murders 2016 (20% increase since 2014) UPDATE: 21,000+ in 2020, a historical 29% one-year increase and largest on record in America!17,41319964,30220057,21220139,633Excerpt :
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Total lives not taken by criminal homicide 1995-2017 compared to 1990-94 levels.164,83919975,74420066,92220149,788Again, the murder rate is down by half from the 1990s levels, as well as crime in general. Which factor carries the most weight for the drop: Eliminating lead in gas, abortion, more police, data-driven police tactics (CompStat), or incarceration? Or video games? (It has been considered.) A panel of experts from the National Academy of Sciences said incarceration has had a “modest” effect, apparently. I’m more inclined to believe Steven Levitt’s of Freakanomics-fame: “Crime fell sharply and unexpectedly in the 1990s. Four factors appear to explain the drop in crime: increased incarceration, more police, the decline of crack, and legalized abortion.”
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Total lives not taken by criminal homicide 1995-2019 (25 years)180,31519987,03820077,02320158,069BLM myths debunked as riots started. 25+ people would die in rioting, and murder totals will have increased by 20-25% in 2020.
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* Thus, it's safe to say that more than 160,000 lives from 1995-2017 have been saved in part due to efforts to lock up dangerous people who murder others. But note: Even when the economy was booming in the 1980s, crime levels didn't drop from the dramatic spike that occurred after the welfare state expanded in the 1970s (correlation, not causation, but even so). Many theories try to explain this rapid drop, but I tend to trust Stephen Leavitt of Freakanomics fame who wrote a paper determining these 4 factors: "Increased incarceration, more police, the decline of crack, and legalized abortion."19998,43020087,51020166,539
https://medium.com/@agent.orange.chicago/unarmed-killings-of-african-americans-numbered-under-10-last-year-a-400-reduction-since-2015-e54f3eeb67ae
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20008,36620098,55320176,668The "No Crime Wave" arguments of the Brennan Center only increased over time. This was my first analysis predicting the huge murder spike from 2014 to 2016.
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20017,91520109,18020187,738
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1JR7ye-3KQdoerxQ-f1tnjcLJbfn5oORdADPb7lYV5q0/edit
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** And this number doesn't even factor population growth. And yet in 2020 people can only say the 1994 Crime Bill was "racist" and a collossal failure. I'd say the exact opposite. Black lives have been saved.20197,738Estimate (final tally in Sept 2020 for 2019)
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Leavitt paper
http://pricetheory.uchicago.edu/levitt/Papers/LevittUnderstandingWhyCrime2004.pdf
One could argue 3 of 4 factors were bolstered by 1994 Crime Bill.
Leavitt Excerpt:"In this paper, I attempt to sort out why crime declined in the 1990s. I begin with a review of the facts. I then analyze the leading explanations for why crime fell, looking at possible determinants that changed in some substantial way in the 1990s. Most of the supposed explanations listed in Table 1 actually played little direct role in the crime decline, including the strong economy of the 1990s, changing demographics, better policing strategies, gun control laws, concealed weapons laws and increased use of the death penalty. Four factors, however, can account for virtually all of the observed decline in crime: increases in the number of police, the rising prison population, the waning crack epidemic and the legalization of abortion."
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"Increases in the number of police, the rising prison population, the waning crack epidemic"
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Other articles
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More police lowers crime
https://www.theatlantic.com/national/archive/2015/02/more-police-managed-more-effectively-really-can-reduce-crime/385390/
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https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/2/13/18193661/hire-police-officers-crime-criminal-justice-reform-booker-harris
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https://mason.gmu.edu/~atabarro/TerrorAlertProofs.pdf
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9 in 10 blacks want same # or more police: (down to 8 in 10 in 2020)
‪http://www.gallup.com/poll/184511/blacks-divided-whether-police-treat-minorities-fairly.aspx‬
2020 >
https://reason.com/2020/08/06/81-percent-of-black-americans-want-the-same-level-or-more-of-police-presence-gallup/
Chicago >
https://www.usnews.com/news/cities/articles/2019-06-04/gallup-study-finds-low-income-chicagoans-want-more-police-support
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In 2020, carjackings doubled in Chicago (and murders spiked 50%)
https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/criminal-justice/ct-chicago-2020-carjackings-jump-20210111-rf2prz67are4tmddx5zjjagati-htmlstory.html
Murder up 50% >
https://chicago.suntimes.com/crime/2020/12/31/22208002/chicago-murders-2020-skyrocket-crime-violence-cpd-homicides
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Nationwide, police focused on protests, and Ferguson Effect happened.
https://www.dmagazine.com/frontburner/2020/10/is-there-a-ferguson-effect-in-murder-spikes-a-dallas-effect/
In Minneapolis >
https://reason.com/volokh/2020/07/09/are-minneapolis-crime-increases-tracking-the-2016-chicago-homicide-spike/
Coined term >
https://www.city-journal.org/ferguson-effect-inner-cities
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Proof of Ferguson Effect, by Roland Fryer (ignored during Floyd protests)
https://www.thecollegefix.com/harvard-professors-research-defunding-the-police-could-cost-thousands-of-black-lives/
Fryer's study >
https://www.nber.org/papers/w27324.pdf
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Full Copy of this source:
Use these numbers under "murder" column to run data above. Scroll down to see murder totals under last 4 presidents.
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http://www.disastercenter.com/crime/uscrime.htm
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YearPopulationTotalViolentPropertyMurderRapeRobberyassaultBurglaryTheftTheft
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199024870987314475600182013012655500234401025606392701054860307390079457001635900
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199125217700014872900191177012961100247001065906877301092740315720081422001661700
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199225508200014438200193227012505900237601090606724801126970297990079152001610800
30
199325790800014144800192602012218800245301060106598701135610283480078209001563100
31
199426034100013989500185767012131900233301022206189501113180271280078798001539300
32
19952627550001386270017987901206390021610974705805101099210259380079977001472400
33
19962652285721349386316885401180530019650962505355901037050250640079047001394200
34
19972676370001319457116347701155817518208961534985341023201246052677437601354189
35
1998270296000124756341531044109445901691493103446625974402232995073738861240754
36
1999272690813116343781426044102083341552289411409371911740210073969555201152075
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ForcibleAggravatedLarceny-Vehicle
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YearPopulationTotalViolentPropertyMurderRapeRobberyassaultBurglaryTheftTheft
39
2000281421906116080721425486101825861558690178408016911706205099269715901160002
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2001285317559118766691439480104374801603790863423557909023211653170922671228391SOURCE:
https://jasher.substack.com/p/contextualizing-the-largest-decline
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2002287973924118789541423677104552771622995235420806891407215125270573701246646
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2003290690788118265381383676104428621652893883414235859030215483470268021261226
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2004293656842116794741360088103193861614895089401470847381214444669370891237851
44
2005296507061115654991390745101747541674094347417438862220215544867834471235859
45
200629939848411401511141804399835681703092757447403860853218374666070131192809
46
200730162115711251828140833798434811692990427445125855856217614065685721095769
47
20083043748461116054313926289767915164429047944357484213422284746588046958629
48
20093070065501076295613258969337060153998924140874281251422033136338095795652
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ForcibleAggravatedLarceny-Vehicle
50
YearPopulationTotalViolentPropertyMurderRapeRobberyassaultBurglaryTheftTheft
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20103093302191036387312512489112625147728559336908978184421684576204601739565
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20113115878161025877412060319052743146618417535477275242321851406151095716508
53
20123138736851021905912170679001992148668514135505176200921099326168874723186
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2013316497531985044511996848650761143198210934509572657519318356018632700294
55
2014318907401939519511861858209010141648486432290573108917131535809054686803
56
2015320896618925829812341838024115158839126132810976405715875645723488713063
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20163234059359214136128560679285301741313241433279780298215164055644835767290
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20173257191788977306128322076940861728413575531935681082514018405519107773139
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2018327,167,4348,441,1101,245,0657,196,04516,214139,380282,061807,4101,230,1495,217,055748,841
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United States Population and Number of Crimes 1960 - 2017
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ForcibleAggravatedLarceny-Vehicle
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YearPopulationTotalViolentPropertyMurderRapeRobberyassaultBurglaryTheftTheft
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1960179323175338420028846030957009110171901078401543209121001855400328200
65
1961182992000348800028939031986008740172201066701567609496001913000336000
66
1962185771000375220030151034507008530175501108601645709943002089600366800
67
19631884830004109500316970379250086401765011647017421010864002297800408300
68
19641911410004564600364220420040093602142013039020305012132002514400472800
69
19651935260004739400387390435200099602341013869021533012825002572600496900
70
196619557600052235004301804793300110402582015799023533014101002822000561200
71
196719745700059034004999305403500122402762020291025716016321003111600659800
72
196819939900067202005950106125200138003167026284028670018589003482700783600
73
196920138500074109006618706749000147603717029885031109019819003888600878500
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ForcibleAggravatedLarceny-Vehicle
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YearPopulationTotalViolentPropertyMurderRapeRobberyassaultBurglaryTheftTheft
76
197020323529880980007388207359200160003799034986033497022050004225800928400
77
197120621200085882008165007771700177804226038770036876023993004424200948200
78
197220823000082488008349007413900186704685037629039309023755004151200887200
79
197320985100087181008759107842200196405140038422042065025655004347900928800
80
1974211392000102534009747209278700207105540044240045621030392005262500977100
81
1975213124000112924001039710102527002051056090470500492620326530059777001009600
82
197621465900011349700100421010345500187805708042781050053031087006270800966000
83
19772163320001098450010295809955000191206350041261053435030715005905700977700
84
1978218059000112090001085550101234001956067610426930571460312830059910001004100
85
1979220099000122495001208030110415002146076390480700629480332770066010001112800
86
ForcibleAggravatedLarceny-Vehicle
87
YearPopulationTotalViolentPropertyMurderRapeRobberyassaultBurglaryTheftTheft
88
1980225349264134083001344520120637002304082990565840672650379520071369001131700
89
1981229146000134238001361820120619002252082500592910663900377970071944001087800
90
1982231534000129744001322390116520002101078770553130669480344710071425001062400
91
1983233981000121086001258090108505001931078920506570653290312990067128001007900
92
1984236158000118818001273280106085001869084230485010685350298440065919001032200
93
1985238740000124314001328800111026001898088670497870723250307330069264001102900
94
1986240132887132118691489169117227002061391459542775834322324141072571531224137
95
1987242282918135087001483999120247002009691110517704855088323618474999001288674
96
1988245807000139231001566220123569002068092490542970910090321810077059001432900
97
1989248239000142514001646040126054002150094500578330951710316820078724001564800
98
99
100