A | B | C | D | E | F | G | H | I | J | K | L | M | N | O | P | Q | R | S | T | U | V | W | X | Y | Z | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | UPDATE for 2019: In 25 years since crime bill passed, at least 180,000 lives potentially saved * | Public link | https://tinyurl.com/jails-police-save-lives | Other similar research | https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/126uhTSpBJL6tbhQJBEg0rCoK-YYczERUjnqAhCgkRCQ/edit#gid=285194517 | |||||||||||||||||||||
2 | UPDATE: Murders for 2020 are predicted to be up near 20,000 (or near early 1990s levels), with an approx. 20-25% one-year increase | Contact me | organica.design@gmail.com | chi arrests > | https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FU0YyGjJE_lrCJl0tWtpnQtomLpaKlp_3gyjuM_odGY/edit#gid=219309145 | https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1J1aABMkcSn9GFA_kjjIHZLyEJb5XwCaZtLPwIUMrUcI/edit#gid=1559429385 | ||||||||||||||||||||
3 | VICTIMS are often forgotten in discussions of Mass Incarceration, the 1994 Crime Bill (which had the support in Congress of Democrats and two-thirds of the Black Caucus), and criminal justice in general. QUESTION ANSWERED IN THIS SPREADSHEET: If the criminal homicide rate remained at 1990-94 levels, how many more homicides would have occurred in total by 2017? (Or another way of asking: How many lives have been saved, potentially?) ** | SOURCE | http://www.disastercenter.com/crime/uscrime.htm | Other sources: | https://ourworldindata.org/homicides | See more charts on this tab of spreadsheet: | https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WxxT6FjbrL7YQOn7eGnnYjnnLkgLaZzg3pRd44EdC3Y/edit#gid=2009559636 | |||||||||||||||||||
4 | Average Homicides 1990-1994 | 23,952 | Tabulate difference from early 1990s average for each year | 2003 | 7,424 | 2011 | 9,291 | Explanation of crime drop? I wrote about it here while slowly realizing (through research) that I was watching propaganda in "The 13th" by Ava DuVernay. Ever since 2016, I've only seen that myths of "White Supremacy" perpetrated and the evils of the carcal state excaerbated -- all while the murder totals increased exponentially and experts saying "no crime wave." | Chart below shows links from Leavitt data in the caption. From Medium article linked to the left, "“The 13th” and its Glaring Omission: Actual Crime that Mirrors Demographics"
| |||||||||||||||||
5 | Murders 2014 (lowest since 1968) | 14,164 | 1995 | 2,342 | 2004 | 7,804 | 2012 | 9,086 | https://medium.com/@agent.orange.chicago/the-13th-and-its-glaring-omission-actual-crime-that-mirrors-demographics-1cc0004032c9 | |||||||||||||||||
6 | Murders 2016 (20% increase since 2014) UPDATE: 21,000+ in 2020, a historical 29% one-year increase and largest on record in America! | 17,413 | 1996 | 4,302 | 2005 | 7,212 | 2013 | 9,633 | Excerpt : | |||||||||||||||||
7 | Total lives not taken by criminal homicide 1995-2017 compared to 1990-94 levels. | 164,839 | 1997 | 5,744 | 2006 | 6,922 | 2014 | 9,788 | Again, the murder rate is down by half from the 1990s levels, as well as crime in general. Which factor carries the most weight for the drop: Eliminating lead in gas, abortion, more police, data-driven police tactics (CompStat), or incarceration? Or video games? (It has been considered.) A panel of experts from the National Academy of Sciences said incarceration has had a “modest” effect, apparently. I’m more inclined to believe Steven Levitt’s of Freakanomics-fame: “Crime fell sharply and unexpectedly in the 1990s. Four factors appear to explain the drop in crime: increased incarceration, more police, the decline of crack, and legalized abortion.” | |||||||||||||||||
8 | Total lives not taken by criminal homicide 1995-2019 (25 years) | 180,315 | 1998 | 7,038 | 2007 | 7,023 | 2015 | 8,069 | BLM myths debunked as riots started. 25+ people would die in rioting, and murder totals will have increased by 20-25% in 2020. | |||||||||||||||||
9 | * Thus, it's safe to say that more than 160,000 lives from 1995-2017 have been saved in part due to efforts to lock up dangerous people who murder others. But note: Even when the economy was booming in the 1980s, crime levels didn't drop from the dramatic spike that occurred after the welfare state expanded in the 1970s (correlation, not causation, but even so). Many theories try to explain this rapid drop, but I tend to trust Stephen Leavitt of Freakanomics fame who wrote a paper determining these 4 factors: "Increased incarceration, more police, the decline of crack, and legalized abortion." | 1999 | 8,430 | 2008 | 7,510 | 2016 | 6,539 | https://medium.com/@agent.orange.chicago/unarmed-killings-of-african-americans-numbered-under-10-last-year-a-400-reduction-since-2015-e54f3eeb67ae | ||||||||||||||||||
10 | 2000 | 8,366 | 2009 | 8,553 | 2017 | 6,668 | The "No Crime Wave" arguments of the Brennan Center only increased over time. This was my first analysis predicting the huge murder spike from 2014 to 2016. | |||||||||||||||||||
11 | 2001 | 7,915 | 2010 | 9,180 | 2018 | 7,738 | https://docs.google.com/document/d/1JR7ye-3KQdoerxQ-f1tnjcLJbfn5oORdADPb7lYV5q0/edit | |||||||||||||||||||
12 | ** And this number doesn't even factor population growth. And yet in 2020 people can only say the 1994 Crime Bill was "racist" and a collossal failure. I'd say the exact opposite. Black lives have been saved. | 2019 | 7,738 | Estimate (final tally in Sept 2020 for 2019) | ||||||||||||||||||||||
13 | Leavitt paper | http://pricetheory.uchicago.edu/levitt/Papers/LevittUnderstandingWhyCrime2004.pdf | One could argue 3 of 4 factors were bolstered by 1994 Crime Bill. | Leavitt Excerpt: | "In this paper, I attempt to sort out why crime declined in the 1990s. I begin with a review of the facts. I then analyze the leading explanations for why crime fell, looking at possible determinants that changed in some substantial way in the 1990s. Most of the supposed explanations listed in Table 1 actually played little direct role in the crime decline, including the strong economy of the 1990s, changing demographics, better policing strategies, gun control laws, concealed weapons laws and increased use of the death penalty. Four factors, however, can account for virtually all of the observed decline in crime: increases in the number of police, the rising prison population, the waning crack epidemic and the legalization of abortion." | |||||||||||||||||||||
14 | "Increases in the number of police, the rising prison population, the waning crack epidemic" | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
15 | Other articles | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
16 | More police lowers crime | https://www.theatlantic.com/national/archive/2015/02/more-police-managed-more-effectively-really-can-reduce-crime/385390/ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
17 | https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/2/13/18193661/hire-police-officers-crime-criminal-justice-reform-booker-harris | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
18 | https://mason.gmu.edu/~atabarro/TerrorAlertProofs.pdf | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
19 | 9 in 10 blacks want same # or more police: (down to 8 in 10 in 2020) | http://www.gallup.com/poll/184511/blacks-divided-whether-police-treat-minorities-fairly.aspx | 2020 > | https://reason.com/2020/08/06/81-percent-of-black-americans-want-the-same-level-or-more-of-police-presence-gallup/ | Chicago > | https://www.usnews.com/news/cities/articles/2019-06-04/gallup-study-finds-low-income-chicagoans-want-more-police-support | ||||||||||||||||||||
20 | In 2020, carjackings doubled in Chicago (and murders spiked 50%) | https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/criminal-justice/ct-chicago-2020-carjackings-jump-20210111-rf2prz67are4tmddx5zjjagati-htmlstory.html | Murder up 50% > | https://chicago.suntimes.com/crime/2020/12/31/22208002/chicago-murders-2020-skyrocket-crime-violence-cpd-homicides | ||||||||||||||||||||||
21 | Nationwide, police focused on protests, and Ferguson Effect happened. | https://www.dmagazine.com/frontburner/2020/10/is-there-a-ferguson-effect-in-murder-spikes-a-dallas-effect/ | In Minneapolis > | https://reason.com/volokh/2020/07/09/are-minneapolis-crime-increases-tracking-the-2016-chicago-homicide-spike/ | Coined term > | https://www.city-journal.org/ferguson-effect-inner-cities | ||||||||||||||||||||
22 | Proof of Ferguson Effect, by Roland Fryer (ignored during Floyd protests) | https://www.thecollegefix.com/harvard-professors-research-defunding-the-police-could-cost-thousands-of-black-lives/ | Fryer's study > | https://www.nber.org/papers/w27324.pdf | ||||||||||||||||||||||
23 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
24 | Full Copy of this source: | Use these numbers under "murder" column to run data above. Scroll down to see murder totals under last 4 presidents. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
25 | http://www.disastercenter.com/crime/uscrime.htm | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
26 | Year | Population | Total | Violent | Property | Murder | Rape | Robbery | assault | Burglary | Theft | Theft | ||||||||||||||
27 | 1990 | 248709873 | 14475600 | 1820130 | 12655500 | 23440 | 102560 | 639270 | 1054860 | 3073900 | 7945700 | 1635900 | ||||||||||||||
28 | 1991 | 252177000 | 14872900 | 1911770 | 12961100 | 24700 | 106590 | 687730 | 1092740 | 3157200 | 8142200 | 1661700 | ||||||||||||||
29 | 1992 | 255082000 | 14438200 | 1932270 | 12505900 | 23760 | 109060 | 672480 | 1126970 | 2979900 | 7915200 | 1610800 | ||||||||||||||
30 | 1993 | 257908000 | 14144800 | 1926020 | 12218800 | 24530 | 106010 | 659870 | 1135610 | 2834800 | 7820900 | 1563100 | ||||||||||||||
31 | 1994 | 260341000 | 13989500 | 1857670 | 12131900 | 23330 | 102220 | 618950 | 1113180 | 2712800 | 7879800 | 1539300 | ||||||||||||||
32 | 1995 | 262755000 | 13862700 | 1798790 | 12063900 | 21610 | 97470 | 580510 | 1099210 | 2593800 | 7997700 | 1472400 | ||||||||||||||
33 | 1996 | 265228572 | 13493863 | 1688540 | 11805300 | 19650 | 96250 | 535590 | 1037050 | 2506400 | 7904700 | 1394200 | ||||||||||||||
34 | 1997 | 267637000 | 13194571 | 1634770 | 11558175 | 18208 | 96153 | 498534 | 1023201 | 2460526 | 7743760 | 1354189 | ||||||||||||||
35 | 1998 | 270296000 | 12475634 | 1531044 | 10944590 | 16914 | 93103 | 446625 | 974402 | 2329950 | 7373886 | 1240754 | ||||||||||||||
36 | 1999 | 272690813 | 11634378 | 1426044 | 10208334 | 15522 | 89411 | 409371 | 911740 | 2100739 | 6955520 | 1152075 | ||||||||||||||
37 | Forcible | Aggravated | Larceny- | Vehicle | ||||||||||||||||||||||
38 | Year | Population | Total | Violent | Property | Murder | Rape | Robbery | assault | Burglary | Theft | Theft | ||||||||||||||
39 | 2000 | 281421906 | 11608072 | 1425486 | 10182586 | 15586 | 90178 | 408016 | 911706 | 2050992 | 6971590 | 1160002 | ||||||||||||||
40 | 2001 | 285317559 | 11876669 | 1439480 | 10437480 | 16037 | 90863 | 423557 | 909023 | 2116531 | 7092267 | 1228391 | SOURCE: | https://jasher.substack.com/p/contextualizing-the-largest-decline | ||||||||||||
41 | 2002 | 287973924 | 11878954 | 1423677 | 10455277 | 16229 | 95235 | 420806 | 891407 | 2151252 | 7057370 | 1246646 | ||||||||||||||
42 | 2003 | 290690788 | 11826538 | 1383676 | 10442862 | 16528 | 93883 | 414235 | 859030 | 2154834 | 7026802 | 1261226 | ||||||||||||||
43 | 2004 | 293656842 | 11679474 | 1360088 | 10319386 | 16148 | 95089 | 401470 | 847381 | 2144446 | 6937089 | 1237851 | ||||||||||||||
44 | 2005 | 296507061 | 11565499 | 1390745 | 10174754 | 16740 | 94347 | 417438 | 862220 | 2155448 | 6783447 | 1235859 | ||||||||||||||
45 | 2006 | 299398484 | 11401511 | 1418043 | 9983568 | 17030 | 92757 | 447403 | 860853 | 2183746 | 6607013 | 1192809 | ||||||||||||||
46 | 2007 | 301621157 | 11251828 | 1408337 | 9843481 | 16929 | 90427 | 445125 | 855856 | 2176140 | 6568572 | 1095769 | ||||||||||||||
47 | 2008 | 304374846 | 11160543 | 1392628 | 9767915 | 16442 | 90479 | 443574 | 842134 | 2228474 | 6588046 | 958629 | ||||||||||||||
48 | 2009 | 307006550 | 10762956 | 1325896 | 9337060 | 15399 | 89241 | 408742 | 812514 | 2203313 | 6338095 | 795652 | ||||||||||||||
49 | Forcible | Aggravated | Larceny- | Vehicle | ||||||||||||||||||||||
50 | Year | Population | Total | Violent | Property | Murder | Rape | Robbery | assault | Burglary | Theft | Theft | ||||||||||||||
51 | 2010 | 309330219 | 10363873 | 1251248 | 9112625 | 14772 | 85593 | 369089 | 781844 | 2168457 | 6204601 | 739565 | ||||||||||||||
52 | 2011 | 311587816 | 10258774 | 1206031 | 9052743 | 14661 | 84175 | 354772 | 752423 | 2185140 | 6151095 | 716508 | ||||||||||||||
53 | 2012 | 313873685 | 10219059 | 1217067 | 9001992 | 14866 | 85141 | 355051 | 762009 | 2109932 | 6168874 | 723186 | ||||||||||||||
54 | 2013 | 316497531 | 9850445 | 1199684 | 8650761 | 14319 | 82109 | 345095 | 726575 | 1931835 | 6018632 | 700294 | ||||||||||||||
55 | 2014 | 318907401 | 9395195 | 1186185 | 8209010 | 14164 | 84864 | 322905 | 731089 | 1713153 | 5809054 | 686803 | ||||||||||||||
56 | 2015 | 320896618 | 9258298 | 1234183 | 8024115 | 15883 | 91261 | 328109 | 764057 | 1587564 | 5723488 | 713063 | ||||||||||||||
57 | 2016 | 323405935 | 9214136 | 1285606 | 7928530 | 17413 | 132414 | 332797 | 802982 | 1516405 | 5644835 | 767290 | ||||||||||||||
58 | 2017 | 325719178 | 8977306 | 1283220 | 7694086 | 17284 | 135755 | 319356 | 810825 | 1401840 | 5519107 | 773139 | ||||||||||||||
59 | 2018 | 327,167,434 | 8,441,110 | 1,245,065 | 7,196,045 | 16,214 | 139,380 | 282,061 | 807,410 | 1,230,149 | 5,217,055 | 748,841 | ||||||||||||||
60 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
61 | United States Population and Number of Crimes 1960 - 2017 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
62 | Forcible | Aggravated | Larceny- | Vehicle | ||||||||||||||||||||||
63 | Year | Population | Total | Violent | Property | Murder | Rape | Robbery | assault | Burglary | Theft | Theft | ||||||||||||||
64 | 1960 | 179323175 | 3384200 | 288460 | 3095700 | 9110 | 17190 | 107840 | 154320 | 912100 | 1855400 | 328200 | ||||||||||||||
65 | 1961 | 182992000 | 3488000 | 289390 | 3198600 | 8740 | 17220 | 106670 | 156760 | 949600 | 1913000 | 336000 | ||||||||||||||
66 | 1962 | 185771000 | 3752200 | 301510 | 3450700 | 8530 | 17550 | 110860 | 164570 | 994300 | 2089600 | 366800 | ||||||||||||||
67 | 1963 | 188483000 | 4109500 | 316970 | 3792500 | 8640 | 17650 | 116470 | 174210 | 1086400 | 2297800 | 408300 | ||||||||||||||
68 | 1964 | 191141000 | 4564600 | 364220 | 4200400 | 9360 | 21420 | 130390 | 203050 | 1213200 | 2514400 | 472800 | ||||||||||||||
69 | 1965 | 193526000 | 4739400 | 387390 | 4352000 | 9960 | 23410 | 138690 | 215330 | 1282500 | 2572600 | 496900 | ||||||||||||||
70 | 1966 | 195576000 | 5223500 | 430180 | 4793300 | 11040 | 25820 | 157990 | 235330 | 1410100 | 2822000 | 561200 | ||||||||||||||
71 | 1967 | 197457000 | 5903400 | 499930 | 5403500 | 12240 | 27620 | 202910 | 257160 | 1632100 | 3111600 | 659800 | ||||||||||||||
72 | 1968 | 199399000 | 6720200 | 595010 | 6125200 | 13800 | 31670 | 262840 | 286700 | 1858900 | 3482700 | 783600 | ||||||||||||||
73 | 1969 | 201385000 | 7410900 | 661870 | 6749000 | 14760 | 37170 | 298850 | 311090 | 1981900 | 3888600 | 878500 | ||||||||||||||
74 | Forcible | Aggravated | Larceny- | Vehicle | ||||||||||||||||||||||
75 | Year | Population | Total | Violent | Property | Murder | Rape | Robbery | assault | Burglary | Theft | Theft | ||||||||||||||
76 | 1970 | 203235298 | 8098000 | 738820 | 7359200 | 16000 | 37990 | 349860 | 334970 | 2205000 | 4225800 | 928400 | ||||||||||||||
77 | 1971 | 206212000 | 8588200 | 816500 | 7771700 | 17780 | 42260 | 387700 | 368760 | 2399300 | 4424200 | 948200 | ||||||||||||||
78 | 1972 | 208230000 | 8248800 | 834900 | 7413900 | 18670 | 46850 | 376290 | 393090 | 2375500 | 4151200 | 887200 | ||||||||||||||
79 | 1973 | 209851000 | 8718100 | 875910 | 7842200 | 19640 | 51400 | 384220 | 420650 | 2565500 | 4347900 | 928800 | ||||||||||||||
80 | 1974 | 211392000 | 10253400 | 974720 | 9278700 | 20710 | 55400 | 442400 | 456210 | 3039200 | 5262500 | 977100 | ||||||||||||||
81 | 1975 | 213124000 | 11292400 | 1039710 | 10252700 | 20510 | 56090 | 470500 | 492620 | 3265300 | 5977700 | 1009600 | ||||||||||||||
82 | 1976 | 214659000 | 11349700 | 1004210 | 10345500 | 18780 | 57080 | 427810 | 500530 | 3108700 | 6270800 | 966000 | ||||||||||||||
83 | 1977 | 216332000 | 10984500 | 1029580 | 9955000 | 19120 | 63500 | 412610 | 534350 | 3071500 | 5905700 | 977700 | ||||||||||||||
84 | 1978 | 218059000 | 11209000 | 1085550 | 10123400 | 19560 | 67610 | 426930 | 571460 | 3128300 | 5991000 | 1004100 | ||||||||||||||
85 | 1979 | 220099000 | 12249500 | 1208030 | 11041500 | 21460 | 76390 | 480700 | 629480 | 3327700 | 6601000 | 1112800 | ||||||||||||||
86 | Forcible | Aggravated | Larceny- | Vehicle | ||||||||||||||||||||||
87 | Year | Population | Total | Violent | Property | Murder | Rape | Robbery | assault | Burglary | Theft | Theft | ||||||||||||||
88 | 1980 | 225349264 | 13408300 | 1344520 | 12063700 | 23040 | 82990 | 565840 | 672650 | 3795200 | 7136900 | 1131700 | ||||||||||||||
89 | 1981 | 229146000 | 13423800 | 1361820 | 12061900 | 22520 | 82500 | 592910 | 663900 | 3779700 | 7194400 | 1087800 | ||||||||||||||
90 | 1982 | 231534000 | 12974400 | 1322390 | 11652000 | 21010 | 78770 | 553130 | 669480 | 3447100 | 7142500 | 1062400 | ||||||||||||||
91 | 1983 | 233981000 | 12108600 | 1258090 | 10850500 | 19310 | 78920 | 506570 | 653290 | 3129900 | 6712800 | 1007900 | ||||||||||||||
92 | 1984 | 236158000 | 11881800 | 1273280 | 10608500 | 18690 | 84230 | 485010 | 685350 | 2984400 | 6591900 | 1032200 | ||||||||||||||
93 | 1985 | 238740000 | 12431400 | 1328800 | 11102600 | 18980 | 88670 | 497870 | 723250 | 3073300 | 6926400 | 1102900 | ||||||||||||||
94 | 1986 | 240132887 | 13211869 | 1489169 | 11722700 | 20613 | 91459 | 542775 | 834322 | 3241410 | 7257153 | 1224137 | ||||||||||||||
95 | 1987 | 242282918 | 13508700 | 1483999 | 12024700 | 20096 | 91110 | 517704 | 855088 | 3236184 | 7499900 | 1288674 | ||||||||||||||
96 | 1988 | 245807000 | 13923100 | 1566220 | 12356900 | 20680 | 92490 | 542970 | 910090 | 3218100 | 7705900 | 1432900 | ||||||||||||||
97 | 1989 | 248239000 | 14251400 | 1646040 | 12605400 | 21500 | 94500 | 578330 | 951710 | 3168200 | 7872400 | 1564800 | ||||||||||||||
98 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
99 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
100 |