Question

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

207

622 comments622

Total Forecasters1759

Community Prediction

Jan 2033

(29 Apr 2028 - Jun 2042)

Make a Prediction

PDF

CDF

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>2199
community	29 Apr 2028	Jan 2033	Jun 2042	1.3%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	29 Apr 2028	—
median	Jan 2033	—
upper 75%	Jun 2042	—
Upper bound
>2199	1.3%	—

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Aug 23, 2020

Closes:

Dec 24, 2199

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 24, 2199

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 25, 2020

AI Progress Essay Contest

AGI Outcomes

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

The AI doomers are having their moment

Business Insider•Aug 25, 2025

OpenAI Model Earns Gold-Medal Score at International Math Olympiad and Advances Path to Artificial General Intelligence

Scientific American•Aug 21, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

05 Apr 2027

When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?

Dec 2030

Will a major AI lab claim in 2025 that they have developed AGI?

1.7%

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Aug 23, 2020

Closes:

Dec 24, 2199

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 24, 2199

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 25, 2020

AI Progress Essay Contest

AGI Outcomes

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

The AI doomers are having their moment

Business Insider•Aug 25, 2025

OpenAI Model Earns Gold-Medal Score at International Math Olympiad and Advances Path to Artificial General Intelligence

Scientific American•Aug 21, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

05 Apr 2027

When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?

Dec 2030

Will a major AI lab claim in 2025 that they have developed AGI?

1.7%

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Make a Prediction

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?

Will a major AI lab claim in 2025 that they have developed AGI?

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?

Will a major AI lab claim in 2025 that they have developed AGI?

We use cookies 🍪 to understand how you use Metaculus and to improve your experience.