To Believe the Official 2008 Recorded Vote, You Must Also Believe … ( TIA )

TruthIsAll      http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/ToBelieve2008.htm

Feb. 11, 2009

If you believe that 2008 was fraud-free and Obama won the recorded vote by 9.5 million, then you must also believe that …

1. Bush won in 2004 by 12.5 million votes (54.6–44.4%), assuming 2008 NEP vote shares and a 95% turnout, despite the fact that his official recorded margin was 3.0 million (50.7–48.3%). The Final NEP is always 'forced' to match the official recorded vote.
(Tables 9, 10)

2. Pre-election likely-voter (LV) polls that did not include new voters (Obama 51.0–43.6%) were more accurate than registered voter (RV) polls (52.3–40.0%).
(Table 5)

3. The Final NEP is correct in stating that 5.2 million (4%) of the 2008 recorded 131.37m were returning 2004 third-party voters, despite the fact that there were only 1.2 million third-party voters in 2004 (less than 1% of the 2008 recorded vote).
(Table 1)

4. The Final NEP is correct in stating there were 17 million (13% 'DNV') new voters in 2008, despite the fact that 122.3 million votes were recorded in 2004, and approximately 6 million (5%) died. Of the 116m living in 2008, approximately 110m (95%) voted. Therefore there had to be 21 million new voters (16%). Is it just a coincidence that the 13% new voter stat is 3% too low and the 4% third-party stat is 3% too high?
(Table 1)

5. The Final NEP is correct in stating that Obama won returning voters by a slim 50–48% margin, despite the fact that he led the final LV polls (i.e. returning voters) by 50.45–43.91%. Assuming Obama had 75% of the undecided vote, he won returning voters by 54–45%. The NEP states that Obama won all voters who did not vote in 2004 by 71–27% and newly-registered voters by 69–30%. Therefore, Obama won 82% of the 2% who did not vote in 2004 but did in a prior election.
(Table 2)

6. The Final NEP is correct in stating that Obama won returning (likely) voters by 50–48%, despite the fact that Obama led the LV polls by 50–44% (see #5). McCain needed 100% of the undecided 4%. But McCain was the de facto incumbent running for Bush’s third term, and Bush had 22% approval. The challenger (Obama) typically gets over 70% of the undecided vote, depending on incumbent approval.
(Table 4)

7. The Final NEP is correct in stating that 60.4 million (46%) were returning-2004-Bush voters, despite the fact that Bush had 62 million recorded votes, approximately 3 million (5%) died, and 56–57 million (95–97%) of 59m living Bush voters returned in 2008. Therefore, the NEP overstated the number of returning Bush voters by 4 million. However, if Kerry won by the unadjusted (WPE) exit poll margin (52–47%), then 51 million Bush voters returned in 2008, and the number of returning Bush voters was overstated by 9 million!
(Table 8.1)

8. The Final NEP is correct in stating that there were just 49 million (37%) returning Kerry voters, despite the fact that Kerry had 59 million recorded votes. Approximately 3 million (5%) died, and 53–54 million (95–97%) of 56m living Kerry voters returned in 2008. Therefore, the NEP understated the number of returning-Kerry-voters by 4 million. However, if Kerry won by 52–47%, the number of returning-Kerry-voters was understated by 9 million!
(Table 8.2)

9. The Final NEP is correct in stating that there were 11 million more returning-Bush than -Kerry voters, despite the fact that Bush won by only 3.0m votes.
(Table 1)

10. There is nothing suspicious about the fact that the 2004 Final NEP had an impossible 43/37% Bush/Gore returning voter mix (Gore won by 0.5%), the 2006 Midterm Final NEP an implausible 49/43% Bush/Kerry mix, and the 2008 Final an impossible 46/37% Bush/Kerry mix.

11. A plausible explanation for the impossible 46% of the 2008 electorate who claimed to be former Bush voters was that a) they were really returning Kerry voters who loved Bush and wanted to associate with him or b) simply forgot that they voted for Kerry and “falsely recalled” voting for Bush and c) they voted for Obama regardless. The explanation for the impossible 4 million (3%) who claimed to be returning third-party voters was that they were really Bush voters who were ashamed that they voted for him and therefore lied to the exit pollsters.

12. The Final NEP is accurate despite the fact that a mathematically impossible returning-voter mix was required to match the recorded vote.
(Table 1)

13. There is nothing odd in the fact that Obama won 52.3% of the 121 million votes recorded on Election Day and 59.2% of the 10 million recorded since.
(Table 11)

14. There is no reason to suspect that votes were uncounted, despite the fact that 5.4 million were uncounted in 2000 and 3.4 million in 2004. Since 70-80% are Democratic (50% in minority districts), the Gore and Kerry vote shares were reduced by 1-2%.

15. The 2008 recorded vote share is the True Vote, despite the fact that an impossible returning-voter mix was required to match the vote.

16. The Election Calculator Model True Vote share (Obama 57.5%) is bogus since the assumptions are not justified. The base case estimate of the number of returning 2004 voters is based on unknown mortality, uncounted vote and turnout rates. But the assumptions are based on historical evidence. More important, a sensitivity analysis shows that incremental changes in the assumptions have minimal impact on the True Vote. Returning voters are calculated for two scenarios: a) the 2004 recorded vote (Bush 50.7-48.3%) which assumes a fraud-free election, and b) the 2004 aggregate state exit poll (Kerry 52-47%) which indicates that the election was stolen.
(Table 12)

How Voted
in 2004
Did Not Vote
Kerry
Bush
Other

Total

 

 

'04 Electorate
Returning in '08
17.08
48.61
60.43
5.25

131.37 m

 

Shares
(= 12.13)
(= 43.26)
(= 10.27)
(=   3.47)

(= 69.13)

 

Shares
(=  4.61)
(=  4.37)
(= 49.55)
(=  1.26)

(= 59.89)

 

Shares
(= 0.34)
(= 0.97)
(= 0.60)
(= 0.53)

(= 2.44)

 

Yes
No

Total

 

 

First-Time and
Returning Voters
 14.45
116.92

131.37 m

 

Shares
(=   9.97)
(=  58.46)

(=  68.43)

 

Shares
(=   4.34)
(=  56.12)

(=  60.46)

 

Shares
(=  0.14)
(=  2.34)

(=  2.48)

 

Share

11%
2%

13%

Votes

14.45
2.63

17.08

DNV

New
Prior

Total

Mix

84.6%
15.4%

100%

Obama

69%
82%

71.0%

McCain

30%
13%

27.4%

Other

1%
5%

1.60%

 

Share

11.0%
4.80%

15.8%

Votes

14.45
6.31

20.76

DNV

New
Prior

Total

Mix

69.6%
30.4%

100%

Obama

69%
82%

73.0%

McCain

30%
13%

24.8%

Other

1%
5%

2.20%

 

 

 

Poll

LV
RV

Obama

52.97%
55.41%

McCain

45.53%
43.09%

Other

1.50%
1.50%

 

2004

New
Return

Total

Mix

15.80%
84.20%

100%

Voted

20.76
110.61

131.37

Obama

73.0%
53.0%

56.2%

McCain

24.8%
45.5%

42.2%

Other

2.2%
1.5%

1.6%

Obama

15.14
58.63

73.77

McCain

5.15
50.33

55.48

Other

0.46
1.66

2.12

Margin 18.28

 

Poll

LV
RV

Obama

53.96%
56.96%

McCain

44.55%
41.55%

Other

1.50%
1.50%

 

2004

DNV
Return

True Vote

Mix

15.80%
84.20%

100%

Voted

20.76
110.61

131.37

Obama

73.0%
54.0%

57.0%

McCain

24.8%
44.5%

41.4%

Other

2.2%
1.5%

1.6%

Obama

15.14
59.73

74.87

McCain

5.15
49.22

54.38

Other

0.46
1.66

2.12

Margin 20.50

 

2004

Kerry
Bush
Other

Total


Turnout


95%
95%
95%

    

Actual

48.27%
50.73%
1.00%

100.0%


2004

New
Kerry
Bush
Other

Total

ExitPoll

52.0%
47.0
1.0%

100.0%


Mix

15.8%
40.6%
42.7%
0.8%

100.0%

Voted

59.03
62.04
1.22

122.30


Voted

20.76
53.39
56.11
1.11

131.37

Died

2.83
2.98
0.06

5.87


Obama

71%
89%
17%
66%

55.21%

Alive

56.20
59.06
1.16

116.43


McCain

27%
9%
82%
24%

43.15%

Turnout

95%
95%
95%

95%


Other

2%
2%
1%
10%

1.64%

Voted08

53.39
56.11
1.11

110.61


Obama

14.74
47.52
9.54
0.73

72.53

%Voted

91%
108%
475%

100%


McCain

5.61
4.81
46.01
0.27

56.69

%Alive

87%
102%
451%

95%


Other

0.42
1.07
0.56
0.11

2.15

Margin 15.84

 

2004

Kerry
Bush
Other

Total


Turnout


95%
95%
95%

   

Actual

48.27%
50.73%
1.00%

100.0%


2004

New
Kerry
Bush
Other

Total

ExitPoll

52.0%
47.0%
1.0%

100.0%


Mix

15.8%
43.8%
39.6%
0.8%

100.0%

Voted

63.60
57.48
1.22

122.30


Voted

20.76
57.52
51.99
1.11

131.37

Died

3.05
2.76
0.06

5.87


Obama

71%
89%
17%
66%

57.47%

Alive

60.54
54.72
1.16

116.43


McCain

27%
9%
82%
24%

40.86%

Turnout

95%
95%
95%

95%


Other

2%
2%
1%
10%

1.67%

Voted08

57.52
51.99
1.11

110.61


Obama

14.74
51.19
8.84
0.73

75.50

%Voted

85%
116%
475%

100%


McCain

5.61
5.18
42.63
0.27

53.68

%Alive

80%
110%
451%

95%


Other

0.42
1.15
0.52
0.11

2.2

Margin 21.82

 

 

Required%

 

(4.8% Mort)

 

(95% RetV)

 

2008

Final NEP 'Vote for Pres in 2004'

2004

Did Not Vote
Kerry
Bush
Other

Total

of Actual 


92.0%
107.6%
100.0%

 

Alive in '08


51.70
63.55
1.17

116.42

Voted '08

20.77
49.12
60.37
1.11

131.37

Per Adjusted Mix
(2004 Vote Req'd)

2008 Recorded
Vote-Count

Adj. Mix

15.8%
37.4%
46.0%
0.85%

100%
131.37

100%
131.37

Obama

71%
89%
17%
66%

52.87%
69.46

52.87%
69.46

McCain

27%
9%
82%
24%

45.52%
59.80

45.62%
59.94

Other

2%
2%
1%
10%

1.61%
2.11

1.51%
1.98

 

 

the official 2004 election results (Table 10), confirming Kerry won the 2004 popular vote in a landslide. Here's why:

Just as the returning-Bush/Kerry voter-mix required to match the Obama recorded vote was impossible, so too was the returning-Bush/Gore voter mix required to match the Bush vote in 2004 (see #10 for links).

In 2004, the reluctant Bush responder (rBr) hypothesis was initially promoted by exit pollsters Edison/Mitofsky to explain the 7% difference in margin between the exit poll and the recorded vote. But this theory conflicted with the Final National Exit Poll 43%-to-37% Bush-to-Gore returning-voter mix. Not only that, the 43% statistic was mathematically impossible: It implied that there were 52.6 million returning-Bush-2000 voters, when Bush only had 50.5 million total votes in 2000 — and approximately 2.5 million of those voters died.  Therefore, there could have been no more than 48 million former-Bush-voters alive to return-and-vote in 2004 — but that's assuming 100% turnout. If only 46m (96%) actually voted, then that means the number of returning-2000-Bush voters was, in effect, inflated in the Final NEP by 6.6 million and carrying the category's associated 91%-share for Bush in 2004 (see '13660').  And, of course, incorporating the impossible must have been of necessity for  'forcing' of Final NEP vote-shares to match recorded vote-count shares (which, thereby, also must have been impossible proportionately).

To deal with the 43/37 conundrum, exit poll naysayers had to come up with another hypothesis — "false recall":  Returning-Gore-voters misspoke (lied, forgot) and told the exit pollsters they voted for Bush in 2000 because they wanted to associate with his win of the 2000 (stolen) election, and he was a war president (who ignored warnings of 911) and had a 48% approval rating to show for his efforts.

But the 2008 Final NEP put the final nail in the "false recall" coffin — and in so doing confirmed that the 2004 election was stolen. To suggest that the 46/37 Bush/Kerry returning-voter mix was due to Kerry voter "false recall" that they voted for Bush (at 22% approval in '08) makes absolutely no sense, just like Gore voter "false recall" made no sense in 2004. The odds are smaller than getting hit by lightening two days in a row.

But no one has yet suggested Kerry voter "false recall" as an explanation of the 46/37 mix.