This article begins a new season of fantasy baseball observation and analysis by the staff of RotoWire.com.
Next week I want to get into specifics on strategy, especially when it comes to closers, but to open our coverage I wanted to start with a few players I’m targeting. They are by no means sleepers, but these are players I’m willing to pay more than the normal price tag to acquire.
Zack Greinke: Greinke finished with a 3.83 earned run average last year, but that was accompanied by a 10.54 K/9 rate that easily led the majors. In fact, the next best in the National League was the
Cy Young Award winner Clayton Kershaw, who fanned nearly one fewer per nine (9.57). Greinke ended June with a 5.63 E.R.A, and while it would be easy to explain his slow start by a lack of spring training since he
missed April with a rib injury, he had 80 strikeouts and 12 walks in 62 1/3 innings, so he was actually pretty fantastic.
Things normalized after that, as he recorded a 2.59 E.R.A. and a 1.16 WHIP after the All-Star break, even with his K:BB ratio being not quite as good. And make no mistake, Greinke
is no Ricky Nolasco, as his run prevention usually matches his terrific peripherals. Put differently, his E.R.A. has actually been better than his xFIP in five of his eight years in the league.
Greinke will be pitching for a big contract this season, and thoguh he may never repeat his Cy Young performance in 2009, don’t overlook just how dominant he was while switching to the National League last year, even if his E.R.A. failed to show it. His current A.D.P. suggests you can grab him after 50 picks are gone, but Greinke is the No. 5 starting pitcher on my board.
Desmond Jennings: First the negatives: Jennings hit .160/.258/.245 in September, so it’s possible pitchers caught up to him after his fast start. Moreover, Tropicana Field has ranked 29th and 30th when it comes to hitters’ parks over the past two seasons, for what that’s worth.
Now the positives: Jennings racked up 10 homers and 20 steals in just 247 at-bats last year, which reveals quite a bit of upside. I’m not a huge fan of paying for unproven players, but Jennings is 25, with an extensive minor league track record. Even during his terrible September, he managed 2 homers and 6 stolen bases, which reveals a high floor.
Maybe he takes the career path of his teammate B.J. Upton, who gives you around 20 homers and 40 steals, with a poor batting average. Or maybe he hits .290 with more of both, especially the steals, which could approach 50-plus. When you get past the third round of drafts, few stand out, and it becomes something of a dice roll when it comes to hitters. Why not grab one with first-round-type upside?
Madison Bumgarner: Bumgarner ended April with a 6.17 E.R.A. and a 1.757 WHIP last year, but he was one of baseball’s best pitchers the rest of the season, posting a 2.83 E.R.A. and a 1.142 WHIP (and that’s with him allowing eight runs while recording just one out in a June outing). Over the final four months, he recorded a remarkable 145:24 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 126 2/3 innings. His 3.10 xFIP ranked seventh-best in baseball.
Bumgarner’s fastball velocity is all the way back, and his slider is one of the best pitches in the game, although it should be noted he threw it 32.4 percent of the time last year, which was the fourth-highest rate in M.L.B., so there is some concern with health. Still, at 6 feet 4 inches and 215 pounds, he appears to be a horse and has not shown any signs of arm trouble. Bumgarner is extremely difficult to homer against, and with plus command and a rising strikeout rate, he enters his third year in the league with massive upside. Selective end points don’t mean much, but he posted a 2.52 E.R.A. and a 1.08 WHIP with 99 strikeouts and 19 walks in 100 innings after the All-Star break.
I’m a Giants fan, and I give Bumgarner a 40 percent chance of having a better season than Tim Lincecum. I would have no problem making MadBum my SP1 in fantasy leagues.
Clayton Kershaw: The day of the 300-strikeout pitcher is most likely finished, but if any contemporary has a chance it’s Kershaw, who also happened to post a 1.31 E.R.A. and an 0.89 WHIP after the All-Star break last season as a 23-year-old. That E.R.A. is obviously unsustainable, but his 1.67 BB/9 control over that span shows that his Cy Young campaign may just be the start of something special. Here are his WHIPs over his final five months last year: 0.96, 0.88, 1.07, 0.95, 0.75.
Kershaw is risky as both a pitcher and a player without a track record, but he’s also very likely both the best pitcher in baseball who also happens to play in the easiest division, which makes him a viable top-10 pick over all.
Dalton Del Don is a senior writer for RotoWire.com. RotoWire’s M.L.B. draft kit and real-time player notes are available free for 10 days at RotoWire.com.