Ready for wildfire season? Here's how bad this year's season could be across the west
WASHINGTON — As things begin to heat up across the West Coast, many may be wondering how this year's wildfire season is shaping up.
That's why we partnered with other Sinclair Broadcast Group television stations to talk with wildfire experts and meteorologists about what people can expect this year and how they can stay prepared for what could be a dramatic wildfire season. You can watch the full 30-minute special In the Line of Fire: 2023 Wildfire Season below:
The snowpack impact
Many areas in the West saw an abundant snowpack this winter. Consider these numbers: Utah recorded its highest snowpack of all time this past winter. Oregon missed out on the bulk of western storms and still had snowpack 170% of normal in early April, the best since 2008. In Nevada, snow accumulation was the highest ever recorded for the month of March. In California, at the start of the water year, 94% of the state was in a severe drought or worse, but at the beginning of April, less than 1% of the state was in the category, which is a massive improvement.
On the surface, a wet and snowy winter can tame the coming wildfire season. "Essentially if you have more snowpack and the later in the year that it lasts, the less likely you're gonna have a lot of wildfires or significant wildfires," said Nick Nauslar, a meteorologist with the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) in Boise, Idaho.
RELATED: Western drought quickly disappearing with historically wet winter
Nauslar said a heavy snowpack acts as a blanket, keeping potentially explosive fuels from drying out. But a simple pattern change in the weather can change the outlook.
"So you can have a very heavy winter snow pack, but if conditions change in the spring and you get very warm and dry, that snowpack can melt very quickly and you can enter a fire season around normal or sometimes even earlier than expected," Nauslar said.
That's one potential scenario, however at this point, fire forecasts are looking good in high snowpack regions.
"Right now, we are looking at definitely a below normal, at least start to the fire season in those areas," said Basil Newmerzhycky, a meteorologist with Great Basin Predictive Services in Salt Lake City, Utah. He's not too worried about high elevations right now, however, lower elevations can be a different story.
RELATED: Heavy snowfall in the Cascades benefits Washington's overall snowpack
"When you have abundant snowpack, you also have abundant precipitation," said Newmerzhycky, "and of course in the lower elevations, a lot of that falls in the form of rain. It grows a very thick grass crop. So in the valleys below 5,000 feet, we definitely get concerned."
That can be the downside of a wet winter - more rain equals more grass growth, which can be a prime fuel for wildfires. As long as things stay wet, grasses aren't a problem but hot summer temperatures can cause issues. And, if potential fuels don't catch fire this year, the danger can increase the following year.
"It turns into what we consider carryover fuel," said Newmerzhycky, "so it carries over, it's dead fuel, it carries over into the next year."
There are many variables that impact how a wildfire season will turn out and no matter what the season brings, we know there will be wildfires of some sort. If previous years suggest anything, it's that the fires could be dramatic.
Fighting fires from the sky
We crunched the numbers and found that nearly 22,000 square miles have burned in seven western states over the past three years alone - that's about the side of West Virginia.
When those fires ignite, sometimes the first defense falls from the sky. Smoke jumpers, as they are known, are the first to drop into the fire lines in an effort to protect our families and property.
Smoke jumpers plunge from the air into forests with almost 100 pounds of gear on them. They are currently training for the 2023 wildfire season.
"When that alarm goes off, there’s not a person here that doesn’t get really excited. Whether you’re on the load or not. Whether you’re a rookie or it’s 30th year smoke-jumping, people love it. Everybody is going to run to this room," said Joe Madden, a smoke jumper interviewed during a training.
Smoke jumpers work all the way through the wildfire season and may go to fires that the average person never even hears about, in remote areas of the West. They mostly go to fires in areas ground crews can't get to by road or trail, some of the fires are as small as an acre. But they are a crucial part of keeping fires from spreading.
"We can get there quickly. We've got an airplane, fixed-wing airplane that can get, you know, to every corner of Oregon in less than an hour or less, that'll take us into Washington," said Josh Cantrell, the Redmond smoke jumpers base training manager. "When they call us, we expect to go suppress the fire, full suppression, initial attack, full suppression, put the fire out."
Predicting wildfire season
A group of 10 meteorologists from Sinclair Broadcast Group television stations across the West got together to discuss the unusual winter much of the western states experienced. They also talked about what they think wildfire season may look like through the summer months. You can watch that discussion below:
RELATED: Meteorologist across the west forecast upcoming fire season after excessive rain
Wildfires impact on air quality
With wildfires comes smoke and that often leads to poor air quality in the western states. For the last several years, we've become accustomed to seeing haze and thick smoke from destructive wildfires, blanketing western Washington. It's likely we'll see it again this summer.
Experts said the poor air quality puts us at risk, but you can plan ahead to make breathing easier come fire season.
Savannah D'Evelyn, a postdoctoral fellow at the University of Washington who has studied wildfires as a source of pollution for the past 15 years, said wildfire smoke doesn't cause an onset of new disease. But the particulate matter in the air can make existing health conditions, such as asthma and cardiovascular disease, worse in some people.
RELATED: Smoky skies, poor air quality from wildfires likely becoming the norm in western U.S.
"We have these big smoke events that come through for a week or two, and as soon as they’re gone – people really want to forget about it instead of preparing for the next fire that comes through," said D'Evelyn. She said part of the preparation involves knowing the risk.
There are thousands of air quality monitoring stations across the country that are owned and operated by state environmental agencies. People can easily look up the air quality in their region and the risk factors associated with it.
Researchers at Stanford University found the number of people experiencing an "extreme smoke day" increased 27-fold over the past decade with nearly 25 million people across the lower 48 states affected by dangerous smoke in 2020 alone.
"It is clear that we’re seeing a pattern," said D'Evelyn.
Washington State Commissioner of Public Lands Hillary Franz said one of the best ways to reduce the risk of extremely smoky days is to attack wildfires quickly and to stop them from growing so rapidly, which takes lots of money.
It's something Franz has made a large focus in recent years as shareable resources between states, like helicopters and planes, become hard to get during long, intense wildfire seasons.
"More of our resources will come from the southeast part of the United States or the northeast or the Midwest because their fire seasons are different," said Franz. "But when it comes to the Western United States, we are all hands on deck – all of us trying to fight these fires as fast as we can."
Wildfire season has become part of our lives, especially for the western states, and while we can't know exactly what will happen each year, it helps to be aware of the risks and be prepared. The state Department of Natural Resources has several tips to help prevent wildfires, including campfire safety and home landscaping in dry conditions. See the full list of tips here.