Regression and Correlation Analysis To Model Future CO2 Emission and Temperature in Jakarta
Regression and Correlation Analysis To Model Future CO2 Emission and Temperature in Jakarta
ISSN No:-2456-2165
Abstract:- This study aims to develop a methodical Keywords:- Carbon dioxide; CO2 emissions; Temperature;
approach to investigate the impact of CO2 emission Environmental; Climate change; Regression Analysis.
gasses on the temperature in Jakarta. Recently, the
anomaly of temperature and climate has been one of the I. INTRODUCTION
issues not understood by the public. People rely on
weather forecasts without knowing the image at all. In The anomaly of temperature and climate change is no
this research, an analysis of the data on CO2 emission longer a new thing because it is happening at the moment.
level and temperature is needed in order to design a non- Indonesia, as one of the tropical countries in the world, has
linear regression model that depicts the relationship experienced the effects of climate change as the temperature
between both variables. Moreover, the proposed in some cities is drastically increasing. This graph is an
methodological approach is intended to be widely spread overview of the temperature anomaly recorded by the
among the general public in order to understand the Indonesian Agency for Meteorological, Climatological, and
correlation and impact that CO2 emission gasses have on Geophysics.
environmental aspects, namely temperature and climate
change.
This study will focus on the changes happening in II. LITERATURE REVIEW
Jakarta, the capital city of Indonesia and one of the cities
with the highest surge in temperature. Therefore, this study This research emphasizes on the air temperature
aims to investigate the major cause of this phenomenon, predictions in the ever warming city of Jakarta. In order to
which is CO2 emission gasses. accurately predict the city air temperature, it’s needed to
determine the dominant factor that caused the increase of
This research involves the collection of data on temperature. Based on recent studies, H2O, and CO2 is the
temperature rates throughout the period 2022–2023 and most significant global warming contributor within the
CO2 emissions sources from combustion vehicles, power family of greenhouse gasses [30, 34]. This is due to those
plants, residential, and industrial emissions within and gasses that have a property of absorbing infrared radiation
surrounding Jakarta. The purpose of this paper is to develop on several bands [34]. Meanwhile, in the city of Jakarta,
a mathematical model as an approach to compare the there has been an increasing amount of industrialization, and
amount of CO2 emissions and temperature increase rate to land usage that has made the CO2 emissions increase
investigate the impact and the correlation between these two drastically [21, 22, 26]. Ever since the 19th century, the
variables. With the regression model discussed in this paper, levels of CO2 concentrations have increased by 40%.
we will be able to predict the possible effect and outcome Combining this rise of CO2, added with the growing
(in temperature) if the amount of CO2 emissions is concentrations of other greenhouse gasses (CH4, N2O, etc.),
increased or decreased. has led to the increase of global temperatures by a rate of
0.08 degrees celsius per year [30].
Fig. 3(a): the VEPP emission model (blue), plotted with the real observational data (orange). observational data is from 2010-
2019, with the later orange graph is the trendline of observational data. While the VEPP model is plotted from the available
vehicular data between 2010-2022.
Fig. 3(b): the value of emission difference between the median-VEPP model, and the real observational data to measure accuracy
of the model.
B. CO2 concentration analysis Jakarta, from ground level, up to the stratosphere. The
The base relations between CO2, temperature, and stratosphere is set to be the boundary, due to the highest
radiative forcing, uses the CO2 in the form of concentration. radiative forcing effects that happen within the stratosphere,
To convert CO2 emission mass to concentration, we can use and troposphere beneath it [6].
the basic ppmv formula of
In order to calculate the atmospheric volume, the
atmosphere is modeled as the volume difference between
two 3D spherical sectors, with the same solid angle, but
different radius. The outer (higher radius) is a spherical
sector from the stratosphere to the center of the earth. While
C : CO2 concentration the inner (lower radius) is a spherical sector from the
M_CO2 : CO2 emission mass altitude of Jakarta to the center of the earth. The deflection
angle of the circular surface area on the sphere surface is
rho : CO2 density calculated from the area of Jakarta. The corresponding
V_air : volume of atmospheric air
formulas of the calculations are :
The air volume in this calculation refers to the volume
of the earth atmosphere above
By taking the area of Jakarta as 661.52 km^2 [1], the polynomial, 2nd degree polynomial, logarithmic, and
radius to the stratosphere as 6421 km (50 km above earth exponential, which results are interpreted in the four graphs
radius) [27], and the radius to the altitude of Jakarta as below, with the y-axis representing temperature, and the x-
6421.008 km (8m altitude above sea level) [4], the axis representing CO2 concentration in ppmv.
calculations would results as : theta equals to 0.130503665
degrees; Volume of stratosphere as 1.438184188E+15 m^3; The regression model that best suits the temperature vs
Volume of Jakarta as 1.404853265E+15 m^3; and the CO2 concentration is the 3rd degree polynomial, with a high
volume of atmosphere for further calculations equals to value of R squared, reaching 0.98, figure 4a. Which is
0.033330923E+15 m^3. While the density of CO2 that is followed up by the 2nd degree polynomial with the R
used equals 1.87 kg m^(-3). squared of 0.94. Even though both these regression models
have a high R squared, it would not be logical to have such a
C. Regression Model of CO2 Emission and Temperature steep increase of temperature for CO2 concentrations above
By using those equations to convert the CO2 emission 450 ppmv. This is not relevant because sharp increases in
masses, to CO2 emission concentration, the regression radiative forcing temperature would only happen in high
between CO2 and temperature could be calculated. The ppm levels, above 2000ppmv [34].
regression done in this research includes the 3rd degree
Fig. 4: Shows the trendlines of different regression equations on the sorted temperature-concentration data
From top to bottom: figure 4a. shows the exponential regression; 4b. shows the 3rd order polynomial regression; 4c. shows the
2nd order polynomial regression; 4d. shows the logarithmic regression.
Meanwhile, the exponential regression has a moderate there is a sharp increase of temperature, which doesn’t show
value of R squared of 0.92, and for the theory based, a logarithmic increase. To counteract this, we limit the
logarithmic regression, has a R squared value of 0.89. concentration levels for regression analysis up to 450 ppmv.
This new prototype results in a higher R squared value of
In order to get a logarithmic theory-based temperature 0.943, which is represented in this graph.
prediction model, we did a qualitative analysis on the graph.
It shows that at CO2 concentration levels above 450 ppmv,
Fig. 5: Shows the logarithmic regression trendline (orange) of the temperature-concentration data which data range is limited to
450 ppmv (blue).
D. Future Predictions temperature of the city of Jakarta in the future. The graph
Using our VEPP model, we can predict the CO2 below represents the comparison of temperature from the
emission in the future by using the vehicle count within the logarithmic prediction model, and the real observational
city of Jakarta. Equipped with future CO2 concentration temperature, within a range from 2010, up to the future in
prediction, we can use the values from the previous 2024.
logarithmic temperature regression to predict the
Fig. 6 shows the comparison between observed temperature (dotted line), with the predicted temperature from the regression
model (orange). The observed data has a range from 2010-2023, while the model has a similar range added with future
temperature predictions. The steadily increasing orange line after 2019 shows the temperature predicted from the VEPP model
which emits a steady CO2 emission prediction that doesn’t account for daily and monthly fluctuations.
Within the period of 2018-2023, observed temperature approximate volume of the atmosphere from Jakarta’s
data is present, but the temperature model doesn’t represent altitude level, up to the stratosphere.
it’s fluctuations. This is due to the usage of the VEPP
algorithm for the CO2 concentration, which emits a steadily In calculating the regression, the data of CO2 and
increasing emission prediction. This results in a steady temperature is sorted, and matched, where the highest
temperature prediction that doesn’t account for the daily observed temperature is plotted with the highest observed
fluctuations of CO2 concentration in a real city-wide CO2 concentration, and so on. This is done due to the
environment. While in the future, for periods after 2024, property of logarithmic equations where the increase of y
observed temperatures no longer exist, the graph only value in a ln(x) function is proportional to the increase of x
represents the predicted temperature that’s calculated from value.
CO2 concentrations of the VEPP model.
This results in 3rd and 2nd degree polynomial
This results in the average increase of temperature of regressions having the most correlation with an R squared
0.005809 degrees celsius in 2022, 0.009404 degrees in value of 0.98 and 0.94, while the logarithmic regression
2023, and 0.009119 in 2024. Looking to the future, the only has an R squared of 0.89. Even though the polynomial
temperature in January 2024 is predicted to be 30.3792 regressions have a high correlation, they are less accurate
degrees with predicted CO2 of 609 ppmv, and in December due to the sharp increase of temperature on higher CO2
of 2024 with temperatures reaching 30.4795, with CO2 concentrations that would only occur in levels above 2000
levels of 626 ppmv. ppmv, much higher than that of the daily observations, or
the VEPP prediction. Thus, the model sticks to the
V. CONCLUSION logarithmic regression.
This study aims to derive a mathematical relationship In order to make the correlation of logarithmic
between CO2 concentration and temperature in order to regression higher, this research limits the analyzed values of
predict future temperature in Jakarta. By referring to the only up to 450 ppmv of CO2. This new model results in a
theories of radiative forcing, the temperature in Jakarta is higher R squared value of 0.943. Plotting the temperature
obtained from a logarithmic function of CO2 concentration obtained from the model, with the observed temperature, the
which is obtained from a logarithmic regression of Jakarta’s model is seen able to mimic the gradients of temperature
CO2 concentration and temperature from 2010 to 2018. from 27.5 to 29.5 degrees Celsius. But, the model isn't able
While the CO2 concentration is predicted by the VEPP to achieve peak values of temperature, below and above
model which is developed in this research. those levels.
The VEPP model of CO2 emission prediction is based For future predictions, we can use this model with CO2
on multiplying a vehicle CO2 emission factor, to the yearly concentrations obtained from the VEPP model. Due to the
vehicular volume, whose values vary between vehicle steadily increasing nature of VEPP emissions, the predicted
categories, and an statistical-obtained effective emission temperature of Jakarta also increases in a steady manner.
constant of 0.853. This model gives us a good The predicted temperature has an average increase of
approximation of the CO2 concentration in Jakarta, in which 0.009119 degrees celsius in each month in 2024, reaching
the predicted values of emission between 2016-2022 has a 30.47951 degrees celsius by the end of 2024.
difference with real emissions of less than 400 Tons of CO2.
The mass of CO2 emissions from this model is converted
into CO2 concentration in ppmv by calculating an