As Germany prepares for elections on Sept. 26, a surprising candidate for chancellor offers hope of repairing the U.S.-German alliance.
That candidate is Annalena Baerbock, the leader of the center-left Green Party.
Just 40 years old, Baerbock offers a smart, confident, and charismatic injection into trans-Atlantic relations. Recently selected as her party's candidate for chancellor, Baerbock has helped the Greens rise in the polls. Where polls previously showed the Greens trailing Chancellor Angela Merkel's ruling CDU-CSU coalition by around 5 percentage points, polls now suggest Baerbock has given the Greens a small lead. If this dynamic holds to September, it would offer Baerbock the opportunity to replace Merkel as Chancellor. Baerbock would still have to form a coalition with either the center-left SPD or the CDU-CSU, but would do so as the majority partner.
Baerbock's electoral potential is good news for the United States and NATO. Europe's largest economy and the European Union's most influential power, where the German chancellor leads, other Europeans will follow.
Unfortunately, under Merkel, who has given way to Armin Laschet as the CDU-CSU chancellor candidate, the U.S.-German alliance is sinking. Although papered over by the Biden administration, Merkel's overt appeasement of China and Russia is incompatible with critical U.S. interests.
Ignoring China's genocide against its Uyghur minority population, its shredding of treaty obligations and democracy in Hong Kong, and its replication of imperial Japan's trade and territorial coercion, Merkel has instead prioritized Chinese trade. Trade matters to Merkel; everything else is irrelevant. Germany's support for Beijing has been a major complication to U.S. efforts to forge a democratic bloc that can push back against China on these various concerns.
Similarly problematic is Merkel's stance toward Russian President Vladimir Putin. Merkel has broken her pledge to reach the NATO 2%-of-GDP minimum defense spending target (Germany spends just 1.4% of GDP on defense). The chancellor also supports Putin's Nord Stream 2 energy pipeline. Ninety-percent completed, that pipeline is the centerpiece of Putin's effort to establish Europe's energy dependence on Russia. Not only will Putin use that dependence to extract European political deference, but Nord Stream 2 will also usurp energy flows provided by Ukraine. Along with those energy flows will go Ukraine's access to billions of dollars in much-needed transit payments.
But while Armin Laschet is set to continue these policies if he replaces Merkel as chancellor, Annalena Baerbock has pledged to take a very different approach. In a discussion hosted by the Atlantic Council on Thursday, Baerbock outlined a much firmer policy toward China and Russia.
Speaking in English, Baerbock observed that Germany and the European Union had to "be aware that we have other countries, like China, like Russia, who are also in a geostrategic fight with us."
Contrasted with Merkel's appeasement waffle, this is quite stunning rhetoric from a prospective chancellor. Indeed, it is historic for such a high-profile German politician to use the word "fight" when talking about adversaries. It encapsulates how Baerbock would be Germany's first truly 21st-century chancellor: a leader finally unburdened of Germany's post-World War II guilt legacy.
"Liberal democracy has to fight for human rights," Baerbock continued. "Sometimes you have to fight very strong on human rights." Referencing China's use of Uyghur forced labor in Xinjiang province, Baerbock said her chancellorship would mean "we don't have products being produced out of forced labor." This represents a seismic shift from Merkel and Laschet's strategy towards China, which is focused on ratifying a major EU-China trade deal in return only for a laughably weak Chinese pledge to make progress on forced labor.
On Russia, Baerbock noted that "it has to be a common European policy where everybody is standing together." Baerbock explained that Nord Stream 2 contradicts Western interests in punishing Putin for his 2014 seizure of Crimea and ongoing hostility. Baerbock was blunt: "We cannot finalize this project. ... It cannot start its action." Instead, there is "high potential in Ukraine for renewable energy." Linking this European security interest to her climate change agenda, Baerbock suggests using Ukraine's pipeline infrastructure to provide renewable energy supplies to Europe. This is creative leadership of the kind that Merkel would never dare dream.
This isn't to say that Baerbock is perfect. She rejects NATO's 2% target. Instead, she says that Germany should bolster its cyber capabilities. But with Baerbock at least willing to make credible the prospect of German military engagement in the event of a NATO crisis, her defense posture is far preferable to Laschet's. This matters because Russian war planning against NATO is predicated on splitting the alliance between those willing to fight and those hesitant to do so. Baerbock does not come across as a hesitant leader.
Instead, this young politician offers a much-needed booster shot to the U.S.-German alliance and the liberal international order. Where Merkel and Laschet are master conductors of a moral and strategic vacuum, Baerbock offers a new commitment to democracy, human rights, and security.
Fingers crossed for Chancellor Baerbock.
