|
Following Key Developments
In the first edition of Driven by InNoVation this year, we share three subject areas in which we anticipate developments taking place and opine on their potential impacts in Northern Virginia. These three areas include: automated and connective technologies, traveler safety, and electrification, all topics we'll monitor throughout the year and share substantive updates as a result. Stay tuned right here for the latest updates!
Interest in AVs will persist, but action
will mostly likely be focused on connectivity.
The enthusiastic pursuit of fully self-driving technology has begun to slow down. Several factors contribute to this decline, including safety concerns dampening public interest and the complexity of real-world operations necessitating lengthy development processes. This makes it a particularly challenging decision for companies to continue to invest at a rapid pace, when other technologies, such as electrification, have a more immediate promise. With that said, AVs still remain both impressive and attractive, so much so that the consulting firm McKinsey & Company estimates the technology could create $300 - $400 billion in revenue by 2035. In fact, a pilot of this technology in Fairfax County has recently been expanded in scope, and you can experience it first hand by riding the Relay Shuttle though the Mosaic District, just around the corner from NVTA!
Source: Fairfax County
Technologies that connect vehicles, infrastructure and more, are related to the pursuit of AVs, but also have their own distinct value and use cases, many of which are closely tied to public-sector needs and offer immediate benefits. There are a few examples of this type of innovation in Northern Virginia already, including the CV2X Pilot, being deployed through a partnership with the Virginia Department of Transportation (VDOT), Audi of America, Qualcomm and the Virginia Transportation Institute, aiming to improve safety in work zones and at traffic signals.
Source: Qualcomm
Additionally, there are other potential benefits of connective technologies, such as safety improvements from crash avoidance systems. For these and other reasons, efforts are being made to support this type of innovation into the ongoing update of the Manual on Uniform Traffic Control Devices (MUTCD). Lawmakers are also pushing U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg to speed deployment of connected vehicle technology. A recent projection estimates that the “number of connected vehicles in service will reach 367 million globally in 2027, from 192 million in 2023.”
Why are we interested?
NVTA adopted the inaugural eight strategies and Action Plan of the Transportation Technology Strategic Plan (TTSP) in May 2021. At that time, the fourth strategy outlined was to “Minimize potential for Zero Occupancy passenger Vehicles.” In November 2022, the Authority unanimously approved expanding the scope and retitled the strategy, “Enhance operation of the multimodal transportation system through connectivity and automation.” Additionally, the recently adopted update to TransAction, the long-range transportation plan for Northern Virginia, explored the potential impacts of Connected, Automated, Shared and Electric (CASE) vehicles as one of three future scenarios and found they had the potential to reduce congestion.
What are we anticipating in 2023?
While there will be continued interest in fully autonomous driving, we anticipate the topic will receive less attention than it has in recent years. However, progress is likely to continue on both AV technology directly and through synergistic development of connected vehicle technologies which could garner increasing attention in the near future.
Increasing focus on traveler safety may create new use
cases for big data and reframe conversations about innovation.
In late 2020, there were seven consecutive quarters of increased traffic fatalities in the United States. Although the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) recently reported a decrease in overall fatalities in the end of 2022, there has been a continued increase in some contexts, including instances involving at least one large truck, rural interstates, motorcyclists, pedestrians, and bicyclists. The statistics for the Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) Fairfax Region are shown below. The Virginia DMV reported a 3% increase in overall traffic fatalities in this region in 2022, and a 51% increase in the number of pedestrian fatalities, as well as a decrease in bicycle and commercial motor vehicle involved fatalities.
 Source: Virginia Department of Transportation (VDOT)
The DMV's Fairfax region encompasses the cities of Alexandria, Fairfax, Falls Church, Fredericksburg, Manassas and Manassas Park, and the counties of Arlington, Caroline, Essex, Fairfax, King and Queen, King George, King William, Lancaster, Loudoun, Middlesex, New Kent, Northumberland, Prince William, Richmond, Spotsylvania, Stafford and Westmoreland.
Understandably, these trends have led to increased emphasis and urgency to improve the safety of travel, which can be seen in the U.S. Department of Transportation's (USDOT) National Roadway Safety Strategy (NRSS). A comprehensive approach to this issue explores innovative solutions, many of which rely on data collection and analysis. Examples include USDOT’s Volpe Center’s work on innovative uses of data science; the U.S. National Transportation Safety Board's recent call for increased data collection on micromobility, and locally, the creation of two platforms ( one in D.C. and one in Northern Virginia) that can be used to crowd-source information on “near misses.”
Why are we interested?
Safety is one of the Core Values identified in TransAction, which was subsequently used to evaluate each strategy included in the TTSP. Additionally, the seventh TTSP strategy, “Enhance regional coordination and encourage interoperability in the transportation system,” aims to “encourage standardization of data collection and sharing,” in hopes of preparing the region to receive potential safety benefits from emerging technologies.
What are we anticipating in 2023?
 Source: Transport Topics
We anticipate continued interest in monitoring traffic fatality rates and seeking new and innovative methods to reduce them. This may result in a greater emphasis on data standardization, collection and analysis. Additionally, it may shift the manner in which all emerging transportation technologies are discussed by increasing focus on their safety implications. For example, EVs have historically been discussed mostly in terms of their potential environmental benefits but recently the National Transportation Safety Board Chair has raised concerns about “the increased risk of severe injury and death from heavier electric vehicles on U.S. roads.”
Electrification will continue to be a focus for the transportation sector,
but discussion of additional options for transit may gain traction.
Source: CNBC
In 2021, the National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure (NEVI) Formula Program was established through the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, or Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA), to create a national network of EV charging stations to support President Biden’s goal of EV sales comprising of 50% of all vehicle sales by 2030. To access funding associated with the NEVI program, states were required to develop a plan to fill gaps between existing and compliant charging stations along Alternative Fuel Corridors (AFCs). Virginia’s plan was approved in September 2022 and is intended to be a living document that will guide deployment of EV infrastructure over the next five years. The Commonwealth of Virginia intends to achieve Full Build Out (FBO) status along AFCs quickly (2023-2024) and then shift to expanding beyond them. VDOT is committed to doing this in an equitable manner and to pursuing a private-sector driven approach designed to maximize the resilience of the network.
 Source: Electrek
Since the launch of the NEVI program and approval of state plans, there has also been other federal action supporting the transition towards electrification. For example, in January the Biden-Harris Administration released a National Blueprint for Transportation Decarbonization, which identifies long-term opportunities for battery/electric technology across many modes of transportation. Additionally, the United States Postal Service received approximately one-third of the funding needed to purchase 66,000 electric delivery vehicles by 2028 through the Inflation Reduction Act. There have also been efforts to spur private EV sales through expansion of federal tax credits, but the complexity of the eligibility criteria has created a confusing landscape for buyers and it is unclear how many manufacturers will be able to produce vehicles that meet sourcing requirements. Despite this, EV sales are expected to continue to grow in 2023; however, at a slower pace than in the last two years.
Why are we interested?
We identified electrification as an area to watch in the first edition of DBI in 2022 and believe it will continue to be an important conversation this year. This topic also aligns well with NVTA’s Core Value, of Sustainability identified in TransAction. Sustainability, along with the other Core Values, were subsequently used to evaluate each strategy included in the TTSP, which contains a strategy to “Advance decarbonization of the transportation system.”
|
