Yes, The Overheated Climate Crisis Debate Is Settled. So Chill Out And Relax

Annual Arctic sea ice minimum since 1979.  (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

There’s finally no longer any debate about it. Yup, climate really does change, we humans almost certainly have some influence, Planet Earth has indeed experienced a continuing upward temperature trend for some time. And, oh yes, more than 97 percent of all scientists clearly agree with both of these statements. In fact, every single skeptical scientist that I know does.  Besides, all good scientists are supposed to be skeptical people.

And after all, isn’t “climate change” pretty obvious?

For example, while the Earth is warmer than it is at least 90 percent of the time, this includes our current experience ever since the beginning of a likely 12-15 thousand-year-long interglacial respite, the latest in a sequential pattern of Ice Ages typically lasting about 90 thousand years.

As for continued warming, until recently we have been witnessing a pretty constant trend of temperature increases ever since the last “Little Ice Age” (not a true Ice Age) ended in about 1850. And although no one really knows how long global temperatures will remain flat as they have now for well more than a decade, let’s all hope that flat-line or resumed warming lasts a long time before the next really big chill arrives that lots of scientists predicted in the late 1970s.

And although they have never, ever, been measured or documented, who can argue that human activities have absolutely no influence…however teensy-weensy… one way or another…on climate?

Never mind that those flat-line temperatures we have been witnessing over the past 17 years have occurred at a time when atmospheric CO₂ concentrations have hit a ballyhooed record level in 1,000 years. In fact even the UN’s IPCC is finally admitting that climate sensitivity to CO₂ appears to be far less than their models predicted… while at the same time they are assuring everyone that they are even more certain than ever that we humans are responsible for more than half of all global warming.

But then if we’re being credited for influencing warming, isn’t it only logical and fair to say that we’re influencing periods of cooling too?

Let’s also remember that significant fluctuations are normal. In fact the past century has witnessed two distinct periods of warming and cooling. The first warming period occurred between 1900 and 1945. Since CO₂ levels were relatively low then compared with now, and didn’t change much, they couldn’t have been the cause before 1950. The second, following a slight cool-down, began in 1975 and rose at quite a constant rate until 1998, a strong Pacific Ocean El Niño year…although this later warming is reported only by surface thermometers, not satellites, and is legitimately disputed by some. (There’s some background on this in my June 18 column.)

Incidentally, about half of all estimated warming since 1900 occurred before the mid-1940s despite continuously rising CO₂ levels since that time.

But then again, is that what that “settled science” debate was really about?

Have no doubt that there’s  a concocted climate of confusion regarding what many alarmists would like to have you think most scientists agree about.

You have doubtless repeatedly heard a claim that 97% (or sometimes 98%) of all climate scientists believe in global warming. In fact I’ve even witnessed supposedly informed university “experts” drop that dopey ruse  on audiences including peers who certainly should know better during lectures and debates. Ever wonder about the source and context of that nonsense?

It originated from an endlessly reported 2009 American Geophysical Union (AGU) survey consisting of an intentionally brief two-question online survey sent to 10,257 earth scientists by two researchers at the University of Illinois.

That anything-but-scientific survey asked two questions. The first: “When compared with pre-1800s levels, do you think that mean global temperatures have generally risen, fallen, or remained relatively constant?”  Few would be expected to dispute this. As previously mentioned, the planet began thawing out of the “Little Ice Age” in the middle 18^th century, predating the Industrial Revolution. That was the coldest period since the last real Ice Age ended roughly 10,000 years ago.