THE draft of the Integrated Energy and Power Master Plan, the document that the Japan International Cooperation Agency has prepared with three scenarios in focus predicting energy requirements up to 2050, has raised a fresh round of concern as experts believe that the plan is ambitious and unrealistic. Experts also believe that the plan, which has been in discussion since its submission to the power ministry in June, once implemented as it is, would add to fiscal burden and serve vested interests. Economists and experts, therefore, rightly put forth a call for an early revision of the document before it is put into a final form in March 2023. The Centre for Policy Dialogue presenting an evaluation of the master plan draft, which plans to establish 18 coal-based power plants for the generation of about 15,000MW altogether, at a press briefing in Dhaka on December 22 described the plan as flawed, especially in the promotion of fossil fuel and negligence to renewable energy ‘in pursuit of a highly ambitious growth.’ A former Power Cell director describes the document as being reminiscent of the 2016 Power Sector Master Plan, which has so far been viewed as disastrous, noting that the new plan pushes for dirty fuel such as coal when the world is moving away from it.
A basic premise of the master plan is to pursue a per capita income of more than $12,500 by 2041, suggesting a massive energy demand while the per capita income in the 2021 financial year was $2,824. Experts say that such a highly ambitious goal for a technical document is flawed. It should, rather, focus on the near future so as to avoid any mistake that could add to fiscal burden in the long run. The document envisages 90,000MW of power in maximum demand in 2050, which is viewed as highly ambitious, that could benefit vested interests rather than ordinary people. The Awami League-led government has increased the installed power generation capacity five times to 25,826MW from 4,942MW in 2009 when it assumed office, but power generation ranges between 12,350MW, in the winter, and 10,250MW, which was the average in November. Wrong economic growth projection has already left the country in a situation with 60 per cent overcapacity in power generation. The plan does not talk of ways to reduce subsidies in the power sector without increasing tariffs, which experts believe is possible. The plan undermines renewable energy potential while it prioritises coal. It does not make any target-oriented plan to develop renewable capacity, the cost of which is rapidly declining. Experts say that Bangladesh could produce 22,000MW from renewable sources. It does not talk of domestic gas exploration and extraction and puts an accent on liquefied natural gas, which means import. What remains a worry is that the plan talks of advanced technologies such as hydrogen power which has yet to be settled as a reliable energy source.
The government must, in such a situation, purge the plan of all flaws and inadequacies for affordability and sustainability of the master plan. And, it must rise above all other interests to protect the interest of ordinary people in energy and power planning.
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