Stakes high for Taiwan’s hard-won democracy as island tipped to throw out ruling party and elect first woman president
Taiwanese voters are expected to elect opposition leader Tsai Ing-wen as president when the island goes to the polls on January 16, in a move many believe will strengthen its hard-won democracy.
With the island preparing to hold its sixth presidential election since 1996, opinion polls suggest voters fed up with a lacklustre economy and the performance of the Kuomintang over the past eight years will gravitate towards Tsai, chairwoman of the Democratic Progressive Party, over Eric Chu Li-luan, the KMT chairman.
If Tsai were elected, not only would she become the island’s first female president – the DPP, which ruled the island from 2000 to 2008, would have unseated the KMT for the second time.
This would underline that transitions of power are normal in Taiwan’s system and therefore strengthen the island’s democracy, observers believe.
Such a result may have repercussions farther afield, by inspiring people in Hong Kong and mainland China who are increasingly demanding democratic practices of their own.
READ MORE - ‘Enough is enough’: Taiwanese voters look for new leader to spur economy
A victory by Tsai would also impact cross-strait relations, which have improved greatly since President Ma Ying-jeou of the KMT took office in 2008.
Ma’s meeting in Singapore with the mainland’s President Xi Jinping (習近平) in November was a landmark for cross-strait ties since the civil war ended in 1949.
But it also underlined Beijing’s hope for continuing recognition of the “1992 consensus”, which underpins efforts by the two sides to cooperate and improve relations and was stressed by Ma and Xi at their meeting.
The Ma government and the KMT view the consensus as a verbal understanding that the two sides of the strait recognise there is only one China, but each side may have its own interpretation of what that China stands for.
The mainland focuses on the ‘one-China’ part of the consensus, while Chu focuses on each side having its own interpretations, and Tsai and her party have denied the consensus even exists – telling a televised debate it was “an option” because not all Taiwanese could accept it.
Tsai has said she will maintain the cross-strait “status quo”, but has offered no concrete proposal on how she could do that without abiding by the “1992 consensus” that Beijing sees as unnegotiable.
A victory by Chu would probably see cooperation between Taiwan and the mainland grow; a win by Tsai would bring uncertainty.
READ MORE - ‘We are brothers’: Xi hails closer ties with Taiwan as closed-door talks with Ma wrap up at historic Singapore summit
Beijing is expected to adopt a wait-and-see attitude if Tsai wins, but is unlikely to tolerate any move to distance Taiwan from the mainland.
The election could even affect both Taipei and Beijing’s relations with the United States.
Tsai is expected to permit imports of US pork – banned due to the use of ractopamine in animal feed – to gain leverage with Washington in the event tensions with Beijing escalate.
If tensions do flare, Beijing is likely to respond with economic measures. Measures could include targeting tourism and air transport to pressure the DPP. The DPP could respond by increasing cooperation with Japan – a move certain to provoke regional tensions.
On the domestic front, the presidential election will be held alongside a parliamentary vote, which is expected to see the DPP further erode the KMT’s influence. Local elections in 2014 saw the KMT’s influence being narrowed to northern Taiwan. It may still cling to outposts such as Matsu and Kinmen, but many doubt the KMT can keep control of Taipei city, its traditional stronghold.
The KMT could even lose control of parliament for the first time in history, which would allow the DPP to take full control and possibly further thwart Beijing’s attempts at political unification.
Whoever wins, Taiwan-centric, or “natural independence”, sentiments could rise. With more young people identifying with “Taiwan” rather than “China” in polls, even the KMT could become more Taiwan-centric.