Happy New Year!

Happy New Year everyone! I think it will be a happy year, except for Hamas of course. I’m predicting victory for the Israelis and a score draw in the Russo-Ukrainian War. I don’t think that Volodymyr Zalensky will still be president of the Ukraine at the end of the year. The British general election is likely to come in the fall, possibly on November 14^th. The outcome is difficult to predict, given the uncertainty over whether or not Nigel Farage, fresh from his triumph in the Queensland jungle, returns to the fray. The US general election on November 5^th is easier to predict – a win for Donald J. Trump, but possibly not over Joe Biden.

The Gaza War

As I predicted towards the end of last year the IDF are winning. Indeed they are winning hands down and have been able to transfer troops to the northern front. The elimination of senior Hamas commander Saleh al-Arouri on January 2^nd has strengthened Israel’s hand. The Administration aren’t happy, but then that’s always a good sign.

The MSM are continuing to harp on about ‘civilian’ casualties, as though everybody being killed was innocent. I see no reason to depart from the 50% figure I gave before Christmas for the ratio of terrorist dead to civilians. Secretary Blinken can whinge as much as he likes. Those nice people the Mossad have more than enough on Joe Biden and Barack Obama, including evidence of the election fraud in 2020, to enable Israel to resist pressure from the Administration.

The Pentagon have pretty much the same stuff as the Mossad, hence their ability to operate independently of the White House. This was dramatically demonstrated when Secretary of Defense, Lloyd Austin, went into hospital on December 22^nd for an operation under general anesthetic, then back in again on New Year’s Day. I should explain that usual procedure when the Secretary of Defense is in intensive care is to let the White House know., but then the President is usually compos mentis.

I suspect that the war will drag on for a few more months, but that ultimately Hamas will be eliminated. Quite what will replace them in Gaza is less clear. The Israelis want some form of Palestinian administration, not involving either Hamas or the Palestinian Authority, but that is easier said than done. I see no alternative to Israeli military government.

The Israelis are stepping up their operations against Hezbollah. I predict that these will intensify, with a possible ground operation once Hamas have been wiped out. Britain, India and the US are ramping up operations against the Houthis in Yemen. At the moment they are small scale assaults only, but I suspect that the tempo of air strikes will increase. There is no political will to solve the problem, which would require amphibious operations, preferably in conjunction with an incursion by the Saudi army from the north. The West will continue to favor only limited operations.

The Russo-Ukrainian War

I suspect that the war in the Ukraine will drag on for a bit longer than the war in Gaza. It should however be resolved by the end of the year. We now have a stalemate along a front roughly the same length as the Western Front in World War 1, although thankfully with far fewer casualties.

The failure to increase Western defense expenditure in anticipation of war breaking out means that stocks of smart weapons are running low. The UK has pretty much run out of spare Challenger 2 tanks and I doubt that the Pentagon has many more Abrams to send to Ukraine. I did warn them!

Battle fatigue has already crept in. Word is also spreading about Zelensky’s sponsorship by the CIA and the corruption in Kiev. The reality is that Ukraine is a German client state, indeed it was once occupied by the Germans. As I have said since the beginning this is really a Russia/Germany conflict, but Western politicians are hung up on the notion that the Ukraine is a functioning democracy.

I suspect that Zalensky will be removed before the end of the year in an internal coup. The Ukrainian general staff are already getting restless.

The British General Election

The big question is when will Nigel Farage make his move? His party (and mine), Reform, are polling around 10 points at the moment, which suggests support of at least 12.5%, given the anti-conservative bias of nearly all polling organisations. That’s enough to do real damage to the Tories and deliver a working Labour majority.

If Nigel were to take over the leadership then all bets are off. He would most likely favor a coalition deal with the Tory Right, which could lead to Britain’s first serious conservative government in a generation, since the German-sponsored internal party coup in 1990 which drove my old friend Margaret Thatcher from office. One of the problems Reform has of course is a lack of experience in government. At the same time the governing class in Britain has fallen into deep disfavor. They have simply been unable to gain control over the Cabinet Office, which in turn has been responsible for a range of scandals, from infecting people with HIV using contaminated blood products to prosecuting innocent sub-postmasters to ordering the NHS to withhold treatment from Covid patients.

The Post Office Horizon scandal has burst into prominence over the holidays thanks to ITV’s brilliant mini-series Mr Bates vs The Post Office, to be reviewed in my next column. In the greatest miscarriage of justice in British history over 900 sub-postmasters and mistresses were maliciously prosecuted for alleged theft and false accounting based on faulty data from Fujitsu’s Horizon computer system, installed at vast expense in every Post Office in the country.

It has since emerged that individual Post Office accounts were being manipulated remotely from Fujitsu’s UK HQ in Bracknell. Courts were repeatedly told that remote manipulation was not possible. To what extent Fujitsu HQ in Minato City, Tokyo was involved is unclear. Given that Japan was a member of the Axis any suggestion of Japanese involvement in deliberately manipulating the accounts of British sub-postmasters and mistresses, driving four of them to their deaths, would be explosive. Anglo-Japanese relations would obviously be affected.

The scandal has already engulfed the LibDem leader, Sir Ed Davey, who was Post Office minister for part of the period. It is about to engulf Sir Keir Starmer, the Labour leader, who was Director of Public Prosecutions when a large number of prosecutions went forward, including a dodgy murder prosecution where flawed Horizon data was the sole evidence of motive. It is important to emphasise that the Horizon prosecutions involved the manipulation of evidence and systematic deception of the courts and defendants. There were also outrageous bankruptcy applications in pursuit of non-debts. Each application was obviously an abuse of the process of the court.

There are two other scandals dating from Sir Keir Starmer’s time as DPP, with Cabinet Office involvement an element in each. The first relates to his failure to prosecute the notorious pedophile Sir Jimmy Savile. The Savile Ring was essentially run from the Cabinet Office, indeed the late Cabinet Secretary Sir John Hunt was a member of the ring and was supplied with boys by Savile. By the time that Sir Keir was appointed DPP the truth about Savile was largely in the open.

The other scandal of course relates to my case. Sir Keir was DPP when the decision was taken to charge me with making a bomb hoax, in relation to a bomb which was actually present, and making indecent images on a memory stick which looked like one seized from me but which was actually purchased by Thames Valley Police. The CPS strategy was to secure a conviction on the images matter first and use that to deter me from attacking prosecution witnesses over the decisions to wipe the Ministry of Defence’s recording of their call to me and their contemporaneous note of it. As any intelligence officer who has listened to the recording can confirm it was essential to the prosecution case to conceal what I had actually said from the jury. Under no circumstances could they hear the tape or see the original note.

The prosecution also planned to smear me as an ‘intelligence nuisance”, a strategy apparently advised by C, an adviser to Tony Blair. This involved blackmailing the late trial judge, His Honor Judge McCreath, into curtailing my evidence and preventing the jury from seeing my book Spyhunter. The jury were also barred from seeing materials demonstrating my involvement in intelligence work.

The blackmailing operation was run out of the Ministry of Justice by an official, R, reporting to another official, G, in the Cabinet Office.  A senior CPS prosecutor, B, reported to both the Cabinet Office and the DPP’s office. Judge McCreath, shamefully, was murdered by the German operation in London, GO2, using a bioweapon, two years ago, possibly after he threatened to talk.

It is legitimate to ask what Sir Keir knew and when. Was he party to the decision to plant underage gay images on a SanDisk memory stick which looked like one of mine? (The Bad Guys were caught out when Western Digital Corporation, an NSA contractor, took over SanDisk in 2016, after which they started coughing!)  Did he listen to the recording of my intelligence briefing for the MoD? Was he shown the contemporaneous note? Somebody had to have appreciated the legal importance of keeping the recording and note away from the jury.

We know that the instructions to wipe the recording and destroy the note were relayed to MOD from an official, P, in the Cabinet Office, on the instructions of the Cabinet Secretary, the traitor Sir Jeremy Heywood, very properly executed by MI5 in 2018. Interestingly, his successor, Simon Case, who so far has not been executed and is on ‘medical leave’, was a Cabinet Office official in 2012. Word on the street is that MI5 have had a careful look at what he was up to back then.

The US General Election

My prediction is that Donald Trump will easily win the Republican nomination, probably with RINO Nikki Haley coming a distant second. I also predict that the legal cases against him will start running into trouble on appeal. Each of them is a crock, about as ethical as the prosecution of Marinus van der Lubbe for the Reichstag Fire. I also suspect that we may see revelations concerning the judges.

I can’t see the various attempts to force President Trump off the ballot, based on the false narrative that Jan 06 was an ‘insurrection’ and a Civil War era amendment to the US Constitution, surviving on appeal to the Supreme Court. Donald Trump never fought for the Confederacy. He wasn’t even at Bull Run.

It is less easy to predict who the Democrat nominee will be. The Democrats have a real problem. Joe Biden is looking increasingly frail, both physically and mentally. He’s hugely ambitious and is obviously intending to run, but can the Democrats take the risk? How can you have a candidate who actually believes in global warming?

Finding another candidate is easier said that done however. The Vice-President, Kamala Harris, is even dumber than the President, no offense intended. There is excited talk about Michelle Obama, much of it coming from Michelle’s camp, but that’s all it is. We’re already in election year. Realistically an alternative candidate would need to have had their campaign up and running by now.

It’s not just a question of getting your name on the ticket. Presidential campaigns take time to organise and the electorate will not want to be taken by surprise.

I suspect it will be Biden, but I can’t see him winning come November. He lost big last time, remember, needing to be bailed out by the DVD, the Correa Group and the CIA, but rigging this election isn’t going to be as easy as rigging 2020. The Pentagon and NSA will be on full alert for one thing.

It looks to me like Donald Trump will be back in the White House come next January. His second term should prove to be quite interesting.

Christmas TV

If I were in the industry I’d be worried that the peak of British Christmas TV viewing was reached on Christmas Day 1971 when the Morecambe & Wise Christmas Show was broadcast. Naturally the show was repeated this Christmas. The scene involving the late, great André Previn is a hoot. You know that Eric is going to say “I’m playing all the right notes, but not necessarily in the right order” but it’s still funny when it comes.

You learn something new each Christmas. I hadn’t realised that an old friend, the astronomer Sir Patrick Moore, host of The Sky At Night, was in the show! Eric and Ernie were one of the greatest double acts of all time. They were certainly funnier than Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt.

We also had the usual Christmas repeats of another great double act, The Two Ronnies, including the 1984 Christmas special, in which the late Peter Wyngarde played a marvellously bad eponymous Bad Guy, Sir Guy. Sir Guy is so evil, cruel and supercilious that he could have been a Cabinet Secretary, no offense intended.

The argument about whether Die Hard is festive viewing now appears to be settled. It features Bruce Willis and it’s set at Christmas. Of course it’s a Christmas movie! The scene at the end, where the cold-blooded German psychopath, if that is not a tautology (no offense to Jerry intended) played by the late, great Alan Rickman, falls to his death, definitely adds to the festive spirit.

Alan Rickman could also have played a Cabinet Secretary, so superbly did he do evil. Unfortunately nobody has yet thrown a Cabinet Secretary off a tall building, although happily the government now has a number of tall office blocks in Central London from which a Cabinet Secretary could usefully be thrown.

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Michael Shrimpton

Michael Shrimpton was a barrister from his call to the Bar in London in 1983 until being disbarred in 2019 over a fraudulently obtained conviction. He is a specialist in National Security and Constitutional Law, Strategic Intelligence and Counter-terrorism. He is a former Adjunct Professor of Intelligence Studies at the American Military University.

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