Tesla heads into Q1 earnings with a sharp YTD stock decline and rising short interest. A technical “cup and handle” formation in short interest may signal further bearish pressure. With options pricing a 9% move and shorts already sitting on $11.5B in YTD gains, positioning remains heavily tilted against the stock.

Tesla (TSLA) is due to announce Q1 earnings after the bell today, 4/22. The options market is implying a 1-day move of -/+ 9%.

Shares closed down -6% yest. to start off the week, after analyst and Tesla bull Dan Ives warned of a “code red” if Elon Musk sticks with DOGE, opposed to shifting his time and focus back the EV company.

YTD 2025, the stock price is down ~44%, while short interest is up by 10 million shares, or +15%.

TSLA is currently the #3 short within the SPX in terms of SI $ Notional Value, at $17.6 billion. (#1 NVDA: $24.6B, #2 AAPL: $22.2B)

Looking back over the past 52 weeks, short interest had been steadily trending down in 2024 hitting lower highs, and lower lows (orange dashes).

However, a ‘Cup and Handle’ pattern has developed in the short interest trend since the start of the year (red box).

On the long side of the trade, a C&H formation can be viewed as a bullish indicator, that stock price is about to break out higher.

But viewing from the short side, this pattern can be an indicator that short interest/bearish sentiment is about to potentially increase (orange arrow).

2025 TSLA YTD SHORT P&L

TSLA has been a very lucrative trade for shorts, with estimated mark-to-markets profits of +$11.5 billion so far this year.

In fact, TSLA has been the #1 most profitable short in terms of dollar value across all single name equities globally, beating out #2 NVDA ($9.4B)

A disappointing earnings print and/or forecast will line the “shorts short’s” even further.

With short interest climbing and sentiment deteriorating, Tesla's post-earnings path hinges on results and guidance clarity. A confirmed break above recent short interest resistance could suggest deepening bearish conviction, especially with analysts openly questioning leadership focus. Volatility is expected—direction depends on whether TSLA can counter rising pessimism.

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