And the winner of the T-X trainer contract is … Boeing, the U.S. Air Force announced Thursday. This contract means at least $15 billion – and probably much more in the long run – in work for them, for their partner Saab, and for their suppliers. It also means an all-new aircraft will enter production, which hasn’t happened in the military market for quite some time. Kudos to Boeing for taking a big risk on a clean-sheet design.
Given Boeing’s recent string of victories (the MQ-25 drone, the MH-139 helicopter) it’s very clear that the company is being very aggressive, and is pricing to win. This is particularly true since their bid price needed to overcome the Air Force’s risk adjustment, in light of Boeing offering the only completely new design (and with the troubles of the KC-46 tanker still weighing on customer perception). There's a strong risk to Boeing of up-front losses here, as with the KC-46. But these wins do a lot to bolster Boeing’s military side, which had been under heavy pressure for the past few decades due to the Joint Strike Fighter and Long Range Strike-Bomber losses.
Second, condolences to Lockheed Martin/Korea Aerospace and to Leonardo. Losing the contest does not mean death for their respective entrants, the T-50 and the M-346. The T-50 has a very strong home market, and a nice string of export victories. The M-346 has also won several key foreign trainer competitions, most notably Israel, Singapore, and Poland.
But given the limited size of the market, winning T-X matters. As I wrote earlier this week, the basic T-X program of record (350 aircraft) is equal to the total size of the advanced jet trainer market over the last 20 years. That US Air Force stamp of approval is important. There’s also a good chance that Boeing will market its plane as a light fighter, an interesting new product on the market and a way of expanding beyond the relatively small advanced trainer market.
However, winning that Air Force endorsement doesn’t guarantee market dominance. Even when the Air Force’s current elderly trainer, the T-38 (and its light fighter cousin, the F-5) was on the market, competing European contractors sold hundreds of Alpha Jets, Hawks, and Jaguar trainer variants.
The Air Force deserves tremendous credit. In a time of resurgent economic nationalism and trade barriers, the service went shopping around the world for the platform that offered best value for money. The service’s MH-139 helicopter selection earlier this week also clearly shows their commitment to global sourcing.
The three final T-X competitors were a Korean jet, a half-Swedish jet, and an Italian jet (with Russian DNA). Globalization isn’t appropriate for all military markets, but building a trainer is hardly core to national security or the health of the industrial base. Even though any winner needed to stand up a US production line, immigrant planes were welcome.
As a final note, this could be the last plane of its kind. I’ve long doubted that remotely-piloted vehicles would take over most of today’s inhabited combat aircraft missions any time soon. But even I’m forced to admit that this could be the last advanced trainer built. After all, if the T-38 story provides any guidance, the last T-Xs could still be in service in 2090.
