ICICI Direct's currency report on USDINR
Spot Currency
The rupee ended lower on Friday as investors remained concerned ahead of the interim Budget amid expectation of populism. The market is expecting an announcement on agri - relief package today wherein the quantum of such a measure would be keenly tracked. The rupee is expected to open positive today tracking gains in major currencies against US$ • The dollar sustained sharp losses on Friday ahead of US FOMC policy meeting this week . Also, news of a temporary shutdown relief improved risk sentiment. Euro reversed sharply from its supports near 1.13 levels. Any declines in the dollar could see sharp gains in the Euro.
Benchmark yield
Sovereign treasury yields rose to 7. 33 % ahead of expectation of farm - relief package announcement today • US treasury yields rose in yesterday’s session. However, market participants would be tracking the upcoming Fed monetary policy meeting in the backdrop of lower expectation of faster rate hikes.
Currency futures on NSE
The dollar - rupee January contract on the NSE was at 71. 21 in the previous session. January contract open interest declined by 4. 79 % in the previous session • We expect the US$INR to face supply pressure at higher levels. Utilise upsides in the pair to initiate short positions.
Intra-day strategy
| US$INR January futures contract (NSE) | View: Bearish on US$INR |
| Sell US$ in the range of 71.08 -71.14 | Market Lot: US$1000 |
| Target: 70.85 / 70.75 | Stop Loss: 71.27 |
| Support | Resistance |
| S1/ S2: 71.0 / 70.90 | R1/R2:71.15 /71.25 |
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