"If the past five years is used as a guide, 25 sailings will have to blanked on Asia-Europe, while Transpacific will require the blanking of 67 average-sized sailings," SeaIntel said in a statement."
"We are now heading into the fourth quarter, where we would expect to see the traditional culling of deployed capacity relative to the peak season third quarter, but the current capacity outlook does not show a Q4 drop in deployed capacity in line with past years."
Over the 2012-2016 period, fourth quarter capacity deployed on the Asia-North Europe trade lane has on average been reduced by 6.6 per cent relative to the third quarter, but this fourth quarter only 0.8 per cent is currently scheduled to be removed.
"If the same seasonality is assumed, a total of 193,000 TEU would have to be blanked over the entire Q4 period, equal to the blanking of 13.5 average sailings, or roughly one sailing per week," said SeaIntel.
On Asia-Mediterranean trade lane, assuming the average 2012-2016 quarter-on-quarter "contraction of 10.2 per cent holds true, the trade lane is currently scheduled for an excess capacity [of] 126,000 TEU in Q4 [2017], which would equate to the blanking of 11.5 average-sized sailings, or a little less than one per week," the analysts said.
On the Asia-US west coast trade lane, fourth quarter capacity in 2012-2016 was on average cut by 4.5 per cent compared to Q3. However, this fourth quarter there is an excess of 184,000 TEU of capacity currently scheduled, equal to the blanking of a massive 25.1 average-sized sailings, or close to two sailings per week.
On the Asia-US east coast trade lane, deployed capacity is currently scheduled to grow by 4.1 per cent over the third quarter of 2017, which would yield a year-on-year growth of "a staggering 21.9 per cent. This would mean an excess capacity of 247,000 TEU if the 2012-2016 seasonality is assumed, which would require the blanking of a staggering 32 average-sized sailings, or almost 2.5 sailings per week," SeaIntel added.
"We are now heading into the fourth quarter, where we would expect to see the traditional culling of deployed capacity relative to the peak season third quarter, but the current capacity outlook does not show a Q4 drop in deployed capacity in line with past years."
Over the 2012-2016 period, fourth quarter capacity deployed on the Asia-North Europe trade lane has on average been reduced by 6.6 per cent relative to the third quarter, but this fourth quarter only 0.8 per cent is currently scheduled to be removed.
"If the same seasonality is assumed, a total of 193,000 TEU would have to be blanked over the entire Q4 period, equal to the blanking of 13.5 average sailings, or roughly one sailing per week," said SeaIntel.
On Asia-Mediterranean trade lane, assuming the average 2012-2016 quarter-on-quarter "contraction of 10.2 per cent holds true, the trade lane is currently scheduled for an excess capacity [of] 126,000 TEU in Q4 [2017], which would equate to the blanking of 11.5 average-sized sailings, or a little less than one per week," the analysts said.
On the Asia-US west coast trade lane, fourth quarter capacity in 2012-2016 was on average cut by 4.5 per cent compared to Q3. However, this fourth quarter there is an excess of 184,000 TEU of capacity currently scheduled, equal to the blanking of a massive 25.1 average-sized sailings, or close to two sailings per week.
On the Asia-US east coast trade lane, deployed capacity is currently scheduled to grow by 4.1 per cent over the third quarter of 2017, which would yield a year-on-year growth of "a staggering 21.9 per cent. This would mean an excess capacity of 247,000 TEU if the 2012-2016 seasonality is assumed, which would require the blanking of a staggering 32 average-sized sailings, or almost 2.5 sailings per week," SeaIntel added.