Flu outbreak is now an epidemic; how bad will it be?
The flu is now so widespread across the USA that it's officially considered an epidemic by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, but it's too soon to tell how particularly bad it will be, says Michael Jhung, a medical officer with the CDC's influenza division.
What is clear is that the most common strain of flu this season, H3N2, is not a good match for the strains covered by the current vaccine, although the vaccine should still provide some protection, Jhung says.
There are large numbers of people sick with the flu across 36 states, and the disease has been responsible for the deaths of at least 15 children so far this season, most in Texas, Minnesota, Ohio, Florida and California.
Walgreens, which tracks prescriptions for antiviral medications, reports that the top areas for flu this week are Paducah, Ky.; Cape Girardeau, Mo.; Harrisburg, Ill.; Dallas-Fort Worth; Austin; Chattanooga, Knoxville and Nashville, Tenn.; the Tri-Cities region of Kingsport, Johnson City and Bristol in Tennessee and Virginia; Columbia, S.C.; Oklahoma City.; and Rockford, Ill.
Major drug chains have reported some spotty outages of antivirals, including Tamiflu, although manufacturers have assured the CDC that they have produced enough supply to handle a heavy flu season. Pharmacists can turn Tamiflu pills into liquid form if liquid supplies run short, says Mike DeAngelis, director of public relations for the CVS/pharmacy chain.
Such antivirals can significantly reduce the flu's severity when taken soon after symptoms begin, ideally within the first 24 hours, Jhung says. That is particularly important, he says, for those most at risk for severe cases, including older people, children under 5 and people with health conditions such as diabetes, heart disease, asthma or obesity, or who have weakened immune systems.
"If you're in one of those risk groups," and you get a fever, or get a little bit of a sore throat, Jhung says, "don't wait until tomorrow. Call your doctor and say, 'What can I do?' "
Most doctors are aware of the benefits of starting antivirals quickly, he says, and can write a prescription even before receiving test results.
Antivirals don't carry the same concern about overuse as antibiotics do, Jhung says. Widespread resistance to drugs like Tamiflu and Relenza is not a worry, he says, although individuals can become resistant if they take an antiviral for long periods.
More people seem to be getting the message that vaccination helps limit the spread of flu.
In November, CVS reported that flu vaccinations were up about 8% over the same period last year, DeAngelis says. Walgreens administered 7 million flu shots through Nov. 31 compared with 6.1 million at the same time last year, according to spokeswoman Markeisha Marshall.
Although this year's flu season started a few weeks earlier than usual, Jhung says he doesn't expect it to peak until early to mid-February. That's why there's still time to get vaccinated, he says. The vaccine generally takes two weeks to reach full effectiveness.