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Seasonal Stock Market Trends: The Definitive Guide to Calendar-Based Stock Market Trading 1st Edition
Purchase options and add-ons
- ISBN-100470270438
- ISBN-13978-0470270431
- Edition1st
- PublisherWiley
- Publication dateDecember 22, 2008
- LanguageEnglish
- Dimensions6.4 x 1.1 x 9.3 inches
- Print length320 pages
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Editorial Reviews
From the Inside Flap
In many aspects of life, things occur in a repetitive pattern. And while things do in fact change over time, the basic underlying idea of seasons and seasonality is that even though things do change, they often return to a particular state over and over again?often in a very predictable way.
Over the course of the past twenty-five years, author Jay Kaeppel?one of the most experienced profes-sionals in the areas of seasonality and stock, options, and futures trading?has examined a wide range of seasonal and cyclical trends as they relate to the stock market over the past century. Now, with Seasonal Stock Market Trends, he shares his extensive insights with you.
Written in a straightforward and accessible style, this book will show you how following the calendar?and taking advantage of consistently strong seasonal trends?can help you to achieve long-term stock market success. Kaeppel introduces you to a wide array of seasonal stock market trends?most based on 70 to 100 plus years of actual market data?and identifies objective "rules" for utilizing each one. Along the way, he also presents a process that allows you to track the performance of a given strategy, so that you can gauge its overall effectiveness.
Just a few of the trends touched upon include:
Holiday Seasonal Trends, which looks at the trading days surrounding market holidays to reveal some surprising results
Monthly Seasonal Trends, which focuses on a variety of intramonth market trends and breaks the month down into clearly defined favorable and unfavorable trading days
Repetitive Time Cycles of Note deals with the performance of the stock market in relation to three specific, and repetitive, time cycles?the 212-week cycle, the 40-week cycle, and the 53-day cycle
Sell in May and Go Away thoroughly analyzes the advantages and disadvantages of breaking the year into two six-month periods for investment purposes
Rounding out this detailed discussion is a chapter devoted to using a variety of seasonal trends to build three separate investment models?the Long-Only Method, the Long-Only Plus Leverage (LOPL) Method; and "Jay's Ultimate Seasonal Barometer" (or JUSB). These detailed models are designed to generate specific buy and sell signals, and require no interpretation on your part.
Seasonal Stock Market Trends will help you incorporate seasonal trends into your current investment or trading endeavors and put you in a far better position to generate consistent profits over time. Free of complicated trading systems and so-called surefire secrets, this book will set you on a solid path to finding opportunities in the markets based on recurring seasonal patterns.
From the Back Cover
PRAISE FOR
SEASONAL STOCK MARKET TRENDS
"Seasonal Stock Market Trends is by far the most comprehensive analysis of seasonality since we created the Stock Trader's Almanac forty-two years ago. We even learned a few new things."
Jeffrey and Yale Hirsch, Creators and Editors at Large, Stock Trader's Almanac and www.stocktradersalmanac.com
"Jay Kaeppel's book, Seasonal Stock Market Trends, sets a new standard in seasonality research. There is no guessing here; all of his work is well researched and thoroughly tested."
David Vomund, President, Vomund Investment Management
"Jay Kaeppel is a highly regarded market analyst who brings his discerning perspective to the study of seasonal patterns in the stock market. In this comprehensive text, Kaeppel builds on the vast literature of calendar price tendencies and goes on to develop a wealth of powerful new seasonal investment strategies."
Nelson Freeburg, Editor, Formula Research
About the Author
Jay Kaeppel (Naperville, IL)?is a successful trading strategist for Optionetics, Inc., and has a weekly column titled "Kaeppel's Corner" in which he writes on a variety of trading topics for www.Optionetics.com.? Jay has been profiled in Futures magazine, and Barclays Managed Accounts Report, and is author of The Four Biggest Mistakes in Futures Trading, Four Biggest Mistakes in Option Trading,?and The Option Trader's Guide to Probability, Volatility and Timing,?all of which have achieved the Top 10 List at www.traderslibrary.com. With 18 years of programming experience, Jay has written a variety of software programs, most notably "Option Pro" trading software, voted "Best Option Trading System" six consecutive years in Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities Magazine.? As Director of Research for Essex Trading Co., Ltd. (1989-2004), he served as a software developer and trading systems designer, and until 2003 he managed futures trading accounts as a CTA,?registering seven consecutive profitable years.? He earned his Bachelor of Business Administration degree from Western Illinois University in 1981.
Product details
- Publisher : Wiley; 1st edition (December 22, 2008)
- Language : English
- Hardcover : 320 pages
- ISBN-10 : 0470270438
- ISBN-13 : 978-0470270431
- Item Weight : 1.14 pounds
- Dimensions : 6.4 x 1.1 x 9.3 inches
- Best Sellers Rank: #1,277,628 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
- #444 in Business Investments
- #522 in Business Finance
- #1,257 in Stock Market Investing (Books)
- Customer Reviews:
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- Reviewed in the United States on January 13, 2021The book should actually be called "Calendar Investing", because it conserns itself with how the market performs on a calendar, not Winter, Spring, Summer, Fall.
That being said, the book stays on topic and makes its points clearly. The book goes into broader details and also micro details, but always on topic.
A minor drawback is that each chapter has useless introductions and conclusions. We were taught (badly) in school that we are supposed to indiscriminately pad our writing with such filler. A much better way to present technical material is the DRY approach (Don't Repeat Yourself). Besides the introductions/conclusions, the author also sometimes repeats himself in-chapter ("as we discussed earlier..."). Personally, I want to read high quality information, and only high quality information, exactly once. But these writing inefficiencies are not enough to take a star away. So I still give the book five stars.
The book could easily be a lower priced soft cover at this point (it's not exactly a new book). But the publisher wants to make money I guess, so they have kept it (as far as I know) only in hard cover format. The page and print quality are good, so you at least get something for your money in that aspect.
- Reviewed in the United States on January 25, 2014This is the kind of book that can get you thinking, questioning your belief system, and forces you to accept facts. I guaranty you that there is no way you can read this book and not get out a calendar and start making notes. For everyone of us who has thought "the trend is your friend" was a trite expression and then immediately started thinking we were smarter than the market and then started picking tops, this book is a slap on the back of the head. Well written and presented. Highly recommended.
- Reviewed in the United States on March 17, 2015The is a trading book that I'll come back to again and again. Jay is pretty rigorous in his testing, and some of The seasonal patterns he's found defy belief...and yet there they are, as plain as day.
The book was written a few years ago, but that's actually a good thing, as you can then research for yourself the "out of sample" data of the subsequent time period, and see for yourself if the patterns are still holding up.
My one quibble, which is minor, is that the longer-term patterns (4- Or 10-Year patterns for example) simply haven't had enough data points in the last 120 yrs or so to be truly meaningful. But the astute reader can decide for him/herself whether there's signal in the noise.
Jay also has a great and humorous writing style, and you'll be hard-pressed to find a book on historical trading patterns that is this light and amusing. A must-read.
- Reviewed in the United States on July 18, 2016Too early to tell.
- Reviewed in the United States on February 10, 2017Good eye opening book on seasonals. I like how he keeps iterating with more discretion and using leverage instead of adding more rules. It needs a 2nd edition soon, the data stops around 2007-2008 so you have to run your own backtest using recent data. Jay seems down to earth, theory is definatley worth considering.
- Reviewed in the United States on December 8, 2020Good book, got me thinking about seasonal trends to go along with my trading approach
- Reviewed in the United States on February 17, 2018This book is an interesting read and Jay shares some extremely powerful seasonal patterns that are simple to incorporate into your existing trading models.
- Reviewed in the United States on August 27, 2019The condition was as described- very good.
Top reviews from other countries
- rmccraeReviewed in Canada on February 14, 2020
3.0 out of 5 stars Interesting, but incomplete.
This was an interesting book and easy to read, but ultimately unsatisfactory. The first issue was that there was no accounting of transaction costs - which is completely unrealistic. The second issue is that the data used to confirm his ideas was the same data that were used to generate the idea - a very serious problem.
In any event, I was interested enough to test his ideas.
As the book was written some time ago the data from 2007 to 2019 were out of sample. This gave 3271 data points. I used the KTI as described in Chapter 9. There were 693 times where the strategy called for a change (transaction out & in, so 1384 transaction costs - that's not cheap). The overall gain using KTI (ignoring transaction costs) was 95%. A simple buy and hold strategy yielded 128% gain (and would have avoided the transaction costs).
It may be possible that implementing parts of the strategy might yield superior results but, to some extent, that is also poisoning the data and should be approached cautiously, if at all.
Still, some interesting ideas and a completely approachable book. Just be cautious implementing the ideas.
- Simon CotonReviewed in the United Kingdom on August 14, 2017
5.0 out of 5 stars Honestly one of the most insightful stock trading books I have read
Kaeppel outlines from the start that the strategies presented are to be used in conjunction with your current strategies, in order to enhance performance by investing during optimal times. The book is direct, easy to understand and every statement is backed up using historical data.
- Johnny_JayReviewed in Canada on January 30, 2015
1.0 out of 5 stars I think I wasted my money
I tried replicating some of his results. The only way I could approximate his results were by ignoring transaction costs. Once I applied both buying and selling commissions (using a discount brokerage's fees) I ended up showing losses. I think I wasted my money.