The 2014-2015 Winter Forecast from the company that has had the most accurate forecasts during the last few winters
Belski's Blog
Updated Wednesday morning......
Anyone in the weather business knows how difficult forecasting can be at times..... especially a seasonal forecast.
It is even more difficult to get a correct winter forecast several years in a row and yet one company has done that.
WeatherBELL Analytics is a fairly new company.
It was started just a few years ago by Joe Bastardi, former hurricane and long range forecaster for Accuweather.... and Joe D'Aleo, the first Director of Meteorology for The Weather Channel.
They have pretty much nailed the winter forecast in most areas the last several winters.
For example...last winter, while NOAA had 5% of the U.S. with below normal temperatures in their forecast, WeatherBELL was talking cold over much of the country with extreme cold in some areas and that is exactly what happened.
Subscribers to WeatherBELL have received the updated winter forecast this morning. This will eventually be posted on their home page which is free.....click HERE
Here is what they say for this winter.....
It will be between a normal winter and the epic winters of the 1970s.
The core of the coldest weather as far as departure from normal temperatures will be from Pierre, SD to Kansas City to St. Louis to Louisville to Cincinnati to Charleston, WV with temperatures for the winter averaging 4 to 6 degrees below normal.
Last winter in Louisville our temps averaged 4 degrees below normal.... so they are saying it will be colder this winter than last.
They have about 60% of the country averaging more than 2 degrees below normal.
As far as snow, with the cold and forecast storm track.... they have the area that will average the most with respect to above normal amounts from Memphis to Paducah and Bowling Green to Louisville, Lexington and Cincinnati to Pittsburgh to Syracuse.
WeatherBELL has over 90% of the country with normal to above normal snowfall.
If the WeatherBELL forecast is correct for Louisville, the winter will not be quite as cold as the ones in the late 1970's, but it could be close.
Snow amounts with this forecast should top 20 inches and more than 30 inches is certainly a possibility which would lead to a top ten snowiest winter ever.
This will be very interesting to see how it develops. From their past record on what they have done with seasonal forecasts, hurricane predictions and other major weather events.... I trust their forecasts because they have a very high accuracy rate.