German Chancellor Angela Merkel smiles as she celebrates after having won a third term in elections... [+]
The German and world press universally laud Angela Merkel’s election triumph in the German parliamentary elections. She has won (not 100% sure) a third term and she fell only three seats short of the holy grail of German politics – the absolute majority. Pundits say she won because German voters like her slow but steady decision making and her down-to-earth style. Few have pointed out that her election victory has been marred by a huge electoral blunder.
Josef Joffe (Angela Merkel's Gilded Status Quo) points out that, having fallen short of an absolute majority, Merkel faces a daunting task in putting together a coalition government. The Social Democrats are loathe to enter another Grand Coalition, where they again risk losing votes from their base. The Greens must decide whether they are a grown-up and not one-issue party. Both Social Democrats and Greens will demand high prices for entering into a coalition with Merkel. She must sign on to their favorite issues or they won’t play along. They can always threaten to swallow their pride and form a government with the despised Left (die Linke).
Merkel could have easily avoided this electoral disaster by giving her junior coalition partners, the Free Democrats, or Liberals as they are known, a minor boost. She could have campaigned with them jointly, which would have transferred some of her electoral clout to them. On election eve, she could have issued veiled appeals to her backers to cast their second ballots (German election laws give voters two ballots) for the Free Democrats. But no. In the run-up to the election, she issued a clear call for her supporters to cast all their ballots for her party. Without breaking a sweat, Merkel could have brought her grateful Free Democrats across the five percent hurdle. Merkel would then have been free to form a coalition that would have agreed to her platform without a blink of the eye.
Why would a careful politician like Merkel make such a blunder? Perhaps the lure of the absolute majority was too great. She clearly underestimated the appeal of the anti-Euro party (which also narrowly missed the five percent hurdle). But she went ahead and took the risk, and missed out on the coalition, which historically has ruled Germany well.
As Merkel goes about the difficult business of wooing reluctant coalition partners, the magnitude of her blunder will become apparent to the German and world press.
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