Grey Enlightenment

Early in an interview with Tim Ferriss, Nassim Taleb discusses the closure of his old Fund, Empirica Capital, and the launch of his new fund, Universa: Not surprisingly Taleb glosses over why Empirica closed, nor does Mr. Ferriss press him on the matter. If I had to guess, it closed due to poor performance, until… Continue reading The failure of tail hedging, and why barbell strategies are misleading

Item #1: Jane Street is big. Like, really, really big. If anyone is confused as to what Janes Street does exactly, that is the point. Like all quant firms, it’s highly secretive. MainFT already reported the headline numbers — net trading revenues of $4.4bn in the first quarter, after a $10.5bn haul in 2023, and… Continue reading The Daily View 5/6/2024: Jane Street, 180+ IQs Study, Crypto, and more

The following stories went viral this week: Harvard applications drop 5% after year of turmoil on the Ivy League campus; and by Nate Silver, Go to a state school. Every year, for the flimsiest of justification or evidence, pundits trot out the same tired predictions or pronouncements about how the ‘Ivy League has peaked’ or… Continue reading In an era of overabundance, elite colleges matter more than ever

From Nate Silver: Go to a state school. This guy was taken seriously as a election pundit, and after capitalizing on that fleeting fame until his prediction models stopped working, basically been a long decline as a contrarian gadfly ever since. his week, for instance, Google — despite probably being the most progressive or Silicon… Continue reading Nate Silver: Go to a state school

As Bitcoin faceplants, at around $57,000 or so as of publishing this post for a decline of over 25% after peaking in March on what is likely a trajectory to $20,000 or lower, I am reminded of a useful heuristic: “Anything that is hyped or promised as a shortcut to wealth for the masses will… Continue reading Bitcoin’s crash is a reminder of the importance of high barriers to entry

Rob K. Henderson discusses his writing process, interestingly, downplaying the role of talent: Yes, you need some bare minimum level of ability to be a good writer, but not as much as you might think. It also implies that the writer can only do things he or she is “good at.” Most people aren’t working… Continue reading The importance of talent and the difficulty of ‘good writing’

Item #1: Meta stock falls 10% on weak guidance and concerns over AI spending despite an otherwise strong quarter, shown below: Of course, I lost a lot on this, which amounted to around 5% of the total portfolio. Thanks to diversification this was not as bad as the 20% decline incurred by FBL, an ETF… Continue reading The Daily View 4/28/2024: Meta Crash, Stock Surge, Bitcoin Falls, Biden Approval Falls

From Erik Hoel, I’m a neuroscientist. Our presidential candidates have shrinking prefrontal cortexes. Age-related cognitive decline–or at least some slowing of intellectual ability–is likely real to some variable extent, as Dr. Hoel shows. For tenured professors, there is marked decline of output with age. Public intellectuals produce their most important findings by their 40s, and… Continue reading Age-Related Cognitive Decline is Real

From CNN: Biden just signed a potential TikTok ban into law. Here’s what happens next. Pundits are erroneously calling this a TikTok ban, when it’s anything but. It’s more like a roadmap of options that could, in theory, potentially lead to a ban down the road if TikTok management is somehow unable to avail itself… Continue reading TikTok Ban: Take 2 (Why it won’t happen)

Time for another update on the Bitcoin method, in which I describe a ‘night effect’ for Bitcoin, similar to one that has existed for stocks for decades. A highly-cited paper from 2008 describes a night effect for stocks: We use transaction-level data and decompose the US equity premium into day (open to close) and night… Continue reading A Strong ‘Night Effect’ for Bitcoin: All of bitcoin’s gains come from overnight