Public's Focus Is Health Care,
Troop Cuts in Iraq

Poll Shows Clear Demands
That President Will Face
For State of Union Speech

By JOHN HARWOOD
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
January 31, 2006

WASHINGTON -- A politically weakened President Bush addresses the nation tonight facing two clear demands from the American public: solve problems in the health-care system and bring U.S. troops home from Iraq.

A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll shows health care at the top of Americans' priority list, with 76% calling increased access and lower costs "an absolute priority" for 2006. Two-thirds say it is time to reduce troop levels in Iraq, while just 28% support maintaining existing troop levels.

Those sentiments haven't been lost on Mr. Bush, who has signaled his intent to reduce troops and who plans to make health care a centerpiece of tonight's State of the Union address.

IN THE POLLS

• The Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll

• Track Bush's approval ratings

Yet Mr. Bush's lower personal ratings since the start of his second term suggest he will have a hard time controlling the debate in the face of opposition from congressional Democrats and some Republicans seeking an independent course. Asked who should take the lead in settling national policy, just 25% say Mr. Bush, while 49% prefer Congress to take charge.

The poll of 1,011 adults, conducted Jan. 26-29, has a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points. Mr. Bush's overall job-approval rating remains at 39%, down from 50% immediately following his 2004 re-election.

The proportion of Americans who credit the president with being "honest and straightforward" has fallen to 38% from 50% in January 2005; the proportion that gives him high marks for "strong leadership qualities" is 42%, down from 52%.

The results show Mr. Bush "is off track," says Democratic pollster Peter Hart, who conducts the Journal/NBC survey with Republican counterpart Bill McInturff. Mr. Hart adds that it raises a question about Mr. Bush's nationally televised speech tonight: "How much of an olive branch will we see" the president extend to his critics?

The poll follows the most difficult year of Mr. Bush's presidency -- one that saw his Social Security overhaul sidetracked, his Iraq policy bogged down by a persistent insurgency, and the administration's competence questioned over Hurricane Katrina. One factor favoring Mr. Bush is the relative weakness of his opponents in the Democratic Party. Only 36% of Americans express a favorable view of the party, essentially matching the 35% with a negative view. Fully 63% give Democrats in Congress subpar ratings on "presenting a clear agenda," while only a third say they have done well on that score.

Yet Democrats have seized the early edge in this year's elections, when control of Congress and most of the nation's governorships is at stake. By 47% to 38%, Americans say they prefer a Congress controlled by Democrats rather than Republicans to emerge from November balloting. A 58% majority wants Democrats in Congress to "provide a balance to make sure that President Bush and the Republicans don't go too far."

In a sign of trouble for the incumbent party, a 46% plurality says it is time to give a new candidate a chance to serve in Congress, rather than the current representative. That predilection for change isn't as pronounced as it was in January 1994, 10 months before the Republicans swept away Democratic House and Senate majorities. But for now it erases the edge incumbents enjoyed when Republicans defended their majorities in the past four contests for Congress.

Mr. Bush's support among Republicans remains strong; 82% approve of his job performance, while just 11% disapprove. A united base supports Mr. Bush's Supreme Court nominee Judge Samuel Alito, who is expected to win Senate confirmation today. Fully 77% of Republicans back the choice compared with 37% of independents and 22% of Democrats.

But Mr. Bush's Republican support is down slightly from 89% a year ago, amid signs of friction on hot-button issues such as immigration, fiscal policy and wiretaps conducted by the National Security Agency at Mr. Bush's direction without court orders. Just 25% of fellow Republicans say the Bush administration still has "a vibrant and solid agenda." One in four Republicans wants Congress, not the president, to take the lead on setting policy. And on Iraq, Mr. Bush's most important policy initiative, 45% of Republicans say it's time to reduce troop levels, up from 32% a year ago.

The public's overall mood, Mr. McInturff says, remains "dark and gloomy," with 57% of Americans saying the country is "on the wrong track." The last time a plurality said the U.S. was "headed in the right direction" was in January 2004. Following last year's fourth-quarter slowdown in economic growth, Americans say by 37% to 22% that the economy has become worse rather than better over the past 12 months.

Against that backdrop, neither party has been able to claim much advantage from some of its initiatives. The Bush administration's much-heralded prescription-drug benefit under Medicare has yielded scant political benefit. Unfavorable views of the benefit outnumber positive marks by 31%-15%, with the rest having no opinion. Nearly eight of 10 senior citizens call it "too complicated and confusing."

Democrats have made only modest progress in exploiting the issue of congressional corruption after guilty pleas by onetime lobbyists Jack Abramoff and Michael Scanlon. By 36% to 22%, Americans say the Republican Party is more influenced by special interests than Democrats. By 22% to 12%, Americans say Democrats would do better at overhauling ethics rules. Yet six in 10 give neither party an edge on the issue.

On the controversy over warrantless wiretaps by the National Security Agency, opinion is mixed. A narrow 51% majority says it approves of the Bush administration's approach to wiretapping international calls by suspected terrorists abroad and inside the U.S. But when asked whether the administration should obtain court orders for those wiretaps, the result is reversed, with 53% saying court orders should be required. Some 79% of Democrats, 58% of independents, and 27% of Republicans describe themselves as "extremely" or "quite" concerned that warrantless wiretaps "could be misused to violate people's privacy."

Write to John Harwood at john.harwood@wsj.com