Edition: U.S. / Global

Politics

Wisconsin Recall Exit Polls: How Different Groups Voted

Based on interviews with voters by Edison Research as of 11:30 p.m.
Scott Walker
Republican
Tom Barrett
Democrat
Hari Trivedi
Independent
Sex Male    (50% of voters) 59% 40% 1%
Female    (50%) 47% 52% 1%
Race White    (91%) 57% 43% 1%
Black    (5%) 5% 94% 1%
  Other    (5%)
Age 18-29    (16%) 47% 51% 1%
30-44    (22%) 57% 43% 1%
  45-64    (44%) 53% 47% 1%
  65 and older    (18%) 56% 44%
College degree Yes    (40%) 49% 50% 0%
No    (60%) 56% 43% 1%
Income Less than $50,000    (38%) 44% 56% 1%
$50,000 - $99,999    (41%) 56% 43% 1%
  $100,000 or more    (20%) 63% 37% 0%
Political philosophy Liberal    (21%) 13% 86% 1%
Moderate    (44%) 46% 54% 1%
  Conservative    (36%) 86% 14% 0%
Party identity Democrat    (34%) 8% 91% 1%
Republican    (35%) 94% 6% 0%
  Independent/other    (31%) 54% 45% 1%
Tea Party Support    (36%) 93% 7% 0%
Neutral    (27%) 53% 46% 2%
  Oppose    (35%) 14% 86% 0%
Opinion of recent changes in state law limiting ability of government workers to collectively bargain over pay and benefits Approve    (52%) 90% 10% 1%
Disapprove    (47%) 10% 89% 1%
Opinion of how Scott Walker has handled creating jobs Approve    (54%) 93% 6% 1%
Disapprove    (45%) 3% 96% 1%
Do you or someone in your household belong to a labor union? Yes    (33%) 38% 62% 1%
No    (67%) 61% 39% 0%
Family's financial situation compared to two years ago Better    (20%) 52% 47% 0%
Worse    (36%) 52% 48% 0%
  About the same    (44%) 53% 46% 1%
If the presidential election were today, for whom would you vote? Barack Obama    (51%) 18% 81% 1%
Mitt Romney    (44%) 94% 6% 0%
  Would not vote    (3%)
Who did you vote for in the 2010 election for governor? Tom Barrett    (34%) 6% 94% 0%
Scott Walker    (47%) 94% 6% 0%
  Someone else    (4%)
  Did not vote    (13%) 45% 53% 2%
Size of area City (>50,000)    (21%) 37% 62% 1%
Suburb    (47%) 56% 44% 0%
  Small city and rural    (33%) 60% 39% 1%
Do you think recall elections are appropriate: For any reason    (27%) 9% 90% 1%
Only for official misconduct    (60%) 68% 31% 1%
  Never    (10%) 94% 5% 1%

The exit poll was based on questionnaires completed by 2,457 voters on Tuesday as they left 35 randomly selected precincts throughout Wisconsin. The poll was conducted by Edison Research of Somerville, N.J. for the National Election Pool which consists of ABC News, The Associated Press, CBS News, CNN, Fox News, and NBC News.

In theory, in 19 cases out of 20, the results from such polls should differ by no more than plus or minus 4 percentage points from what would have been obtained by seeking to survey all voters who participated in the Wisconsin recall election. Results based on smaller sub-groups, like demographic groups or backers of a particular candidate, have a larger potential sampling error.

In addition to sampling error, the practical difficulties of conducting any survey of voter opinion on election day, like the reluctance of some voters to take time to fill out the questionnaire, may introduce other sources of error into the poll. Michael R. Kagay of Princeton, N.J. assisted The Times in its polling analysis.