The Howey-Gauge Poll was conducted with 600 registered likely voters on Aug. 29-30.

Press Release

INDIANAPOLIS - Indiana voters will find themselves at the American
political epicenter over the next 60 days as Republican presidential
nominee John McCain holds a narrow 45-43 percent lead over Democrat Barack Obama. The race falls within the poll's 4.1 +/- margin of error.

In the Indiana gubernatorial race, Gov. Mitch Daniels holds a commanding 53-35 percent lead over Democrat Jill Long Thompson. Daniels is attracting 24 percent of Democratic vote. Twenty-seven percent of Obama's support is coming from Daniels supporters. The Republican governor is also attracting 27 percent of the African-American vote with 22 percent of that traditionally Democratic demographic undecided.

The Howey-Gauge Poll was conducted with 600 registered likely voters on Aug. 29-30. The survey began 20 hours after Obama's Democratic National Convention acceptance speech, and five hours after McCain announced the stunning selection of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate. Poll respondents were universally aware of both events.

In the presidential race, McCain slightly under performed the GOP base. Both McCain and Obama have near universal name recognition at 99 percent. McCain's 55 percent favorable recognition was up 8 percent and his unfavs stood at a relatively low 27 percent. Obama's favorables have been on a steady increase from 41 percent in the April Howey-Gauge Poll to 56 percent in this survey. His negatives fell from 34 percent in April to 27 percent in August. Hoosiers having a hard opinion of McCain increased from 72 percent in April to 82 percent. "The positive movement for Obama is significant," said Gauge Market Research pollster Holly Davis. "At the end of the day, we'll have to wait and see if Obama's impact is larger than that of Palin's. We will see if the new voters that were registered before and after the May Democratic primary out-weigh the renewed excitement social conservatives have for Sarah Palin."

In the gubernatorial race, Democrat Jill Long Thompson faces a similar dilemma to what she faced in the primary. Her total awareness stood at 77 percent, up from 41 percent in February and 59 percent in April. While that number increased, her favorables and unfavorables both increased 10 percent from 22/9 in April to 32/19 in August.

On the re-elect question, Gov. Daniels has improved from a troublesome 41 percent in February during the heart of the property tax crisis, to 47 percent in April a month after HB1001 passed the Indiana General Assembly and 48 percent in August when more than half of Hoosier homeowners saw their property taxes reduced. Forty percent responded by saying "elect someone new" and 12 percent were undecided.

"In this environment, 48 percent is OK," said Davis. "If that number was still in the low 40s, the governor would be in trouble. On the right track/wrong track question, 47 percent said right track (compared to 37 percent in February, 39 percent in April. The wrong track numbers have declined from 40 percent in February, 41 percent in April and 35 percent in August. "

On the question of support for HB 1001, 59 percent favored the plan and 25 percent opposed.

The poll was the third conducted since February by Indianapolis-based Gauge Market Research for Howey Politics Indiana, a non-partisan, online publication based in Indianapolis. The complete survey toplines can be viewed at www.howeypolitics.com and www.gaugemarketresearch.com.

The final Howey-Gauge Poll will be conducted in late October and
released on Thursday, Oct. 23 at the Barnes & Thornberg Auditorium, 11 S. Meridian St., Indianapolis, at a ticketed luncheon event.

Source: Howey Politics Indiana