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Who will buy Yahoo?
18%)
Would you sleep with me for $10m?
It is clear that Yahoo’s position is shifting from “We don’t want to be bought” to “OK, but that isn’t enough”. It is a bit like the old joke where a guy propositions a girl with the line “Would you sleep with me for $10m?”. The girl says well for one night she probably would. The guy then makes the same proposal but for $100. The girl says “What do you think I am, a prostitute!?” to which the guy replies “We’ve already established your status, I’m just trying to negotiate the price!”.
Forecasting a deal
Anyway, Yahoo is currently trading at $27.4 per share (pre-opening) so some investors certainly think that Microsoft could walk away. However more interestingly the forecast chance of Yahoo staying independent is steadily dropping on the Hubdub prediction market. Currently Hubdub predictors are forecasting the percentage chance of Yahoo being independent at the end of 2008 as around 15%. So will it be bye bye Yahoo, hello Microhoo?
Settlement details:
This question will be settled on the announcement of the acquisition of Yahoo!, not completion. If an acquisition occurs involving a number of parties then the question will be settled as the lead or the investor taking the largest stake. If there is no clarity as to who the lead investor is then the question will be voided. If no acquisition has occured by the end of 2008, the question will be settled as "Still independent by end of '08".
Make your prediction!
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Microsoft |
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News Corp |
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Viacom |
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Time Warner |
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Other public company |
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Still independent by end of '08 |
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Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (4 weeks to go)
Initial likelihoods: Microsoft: 10%, News Corp: 5%, Viacom: 2%, Time Warner: 1%, Other public company: 3%, Private equity: 5%, Still independent by end of '08: 74%
Action history:
nigeleccles nigeleccles: Note on News Corp rumours: If News Corp strike a deal with Yahoo but do not acquire then Yahoo would be considered to remain independent nigeleccles 
andrew
Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (4 weeks to go)
more info...
Get widget!Predictions (1082)
1082 predictions
thepeoplegeekllc
exilpatComments (26)
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More questions by
nigeleccles
70 settled, 13 voided
This question is starting to get very interesting (not that Henry Blodget has never been wrong before *ahem*)
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Thoughts?
Looks like Microsoft is still the only game in town.
http://www.bloggingbuyouts.com/2008/02/11/a-yahoo-yhoo-overture-to-aol-twx/
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mork (This user: Is On Strike)
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