|
Welcome to the VP speculation thread, a chance to muse on who will and who should become the vice presidential nominees for both the Democratic and Republican parties., hopefully with a minimum of poo poo flinging and name calling. I've done a breakdown of some of the most commonly cited names below but if there's anyone I've missed feel free to introduce them. After each candidate I've listed how they did in the MSNBC veepstakes as well as what my hunch is as to how good their chances are (just in case it's not clear it goes not happening->unlikely->longshot->possible->probable). Finally at the end of each party breakdown there's a section of various numerical nonsense, namely intrade prices from the 3rd of June (when Obama became the Democratic nominee) to today, the latest betting odds (for the Democrats I've included some trending info but unfortunately I don't have that data for the Republicans) and my own invention the BuzzometerTM[/super], which is the number of matches on Google News for '[candidate name] McCain/Obama VP'. Consider the BuzzometerTM[/super] my own version of the Keith Number, in that I invented it so I'll drat well run it into the ground, and like the Keith Number it's useless in a lot of scenarios (Gore for example gets mentioned an awful lot in relation to past elections, hence his high ranking on the Buzzometer[super]TM). Anyway, without any further ado:  Obama enters the final stages of VP vetting comfortable in the knowledge that he doesn't desperately need a VP to do anything. Despite rumbling from the media and the lunatic, PUMA fringe the Democratic party has come together pretty nicely despite a fierce primary competition, and the current state of the general election maps means that gaining extra electoral votes, though it would be a nice bonus, is not an immediate priority. For Obama and his team, then, electoral and intra-party issues are likely to take a backseat in picking a VP, with personal relationships and similarity in outlook coming to the fore instead. That's not to say electoral factors won't play a role, and as far as they go there's two routes Obama could take. He could seek to counter his perceived weaknesses by picking and older white male with a wealth of foreign policy and/or military experience who would be seen as a safe pair of hands. Personally though I think Obama's more likely to go the Clinton-Gore route and pick someone who emphasises his strengths; someone young, outside of the standard Washington circles and who has a track record of working across the aisle. Either way given the way the media treatment is shaping up the Obama campaign need to be very careful about anyone with a whiff of scandal or who could be framed negatively. Finally, one potential x factor is the former Clinton supporters both within the party apparatus and the population at large. A month ago I'd have said they were a major force that need to be factored into the equation and so former Clinton supporters or even the candidate herself had to be considered. Now. though, with polls showing Obama having the vast majority of identified Democrats behind him and his position within the party consolidated I'd say the only real consideration that needs to be made is not to make a decision that will piss them off massively. With that in mind here's the most commonly bandied around choices: Evan Bayh  Who he? Former Governor of Indiana and current Senator from Indiana. Briefly flirted with making a presidential bid this time round, but instead settled for endorsing Hillary. Former chair of the DLC (the Clinton wing of the party). Pros: 1. Wildly popular governor (had 80% approval ratings by the end of his second term) so would almost certainly be a big boost in Indiana 2. Could help smooth tensions with Clinton supporters within the party Cons: 1. Voted in favour of the Iraq War, though he was later a strong critic of it and pushed for Rumsfeld's resignation 2. Little if any national name recognition MSNBC veepstakes result: Out in third round Gut prediction: Possible Links: Homepage Wikipedia Votesmart OnTheIssues Joe Biden  Who he? Senator from Delaware and candidate for the Democratic presidential nomination in 84, 88, 2004 and 2008. Pros: 1. Has experience coming out the wazoo 2. As chairman of the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations would boost Obama's foreign policy credentials 3. Could help court the Catholic vote Cons: 1. Supported the Iraq war 2. 4 failed presidential bids don't exactly instil huge confidence in his campaigning ability 3. Being the senior senator from Delaware is unlikely to deliver Obama many electoral votes 4. Fairly gaffe-prone MSNBC veepstakes result: Winner Gut prediction: Possible Links: Homepage1 Homepage2 [url=]Wikipedia[/url] Votesmart OnTheIssues Michael Bloomberg  Who he? Billionaire and Mayor of New York Pros: 1. Would bring a lot of cash with him 2. Could sway Republicans to vote for Obama 3. May get favourable coverage from Bloomberg News Cons: 1. This isn't the 1860s. Unity tickets are pushed every election but never, ever happen for very good reasons. MSNBC veepstakes result: Out in third round Gut prediction: Not going to happen Links: Homepage Wikipedia Votesmart Phil Bredesen  Who he? Former Mayor of Nashville and current governor of Tennessee Pros: 1. Won re-election as governor by the largest margin in the state's history 2, As Mayor of Nashville, did a lot to fix crappy education system 3. Pretty decent health care ideas Cons: 1. Unlikely he could deliver Tennessee in the general 2. Supports the death penalty MSNBC veepstakes result: Out in first round Gut prediction: Unlikely Links: Homepage Wikipedia Votesmart OnTheIssues Wes Clark  Who he? Former 4 star general, head of NATO and commander of the NATO operation in Kosovo. Ran for the presidency in 2004 as the DLC's candidate but dropped out after Super Tuesday having won only one state (Oklahoma). Pros: 1. Strongest candidate in terms of military credentials 2. Would keep the Clinton wing happy Cons: 1. By all accounts ran a lovely campaign for president 2. Has various questions dogging him surrounding his Kosovo campaign. A photo of him joking and swapping hats with indicted war criminal Radko Miladic doesn't help much. 3. Dared to suggest that being shot down doesn't automatically make one qualified to be president MSNBC veepstakes result: Out in third round Gut prediction: Unlikely Links: Homepage Wikipedia OnTheIssues Hillary Clinton  Who she? Are you making GBS threads me? Pros: 1. Would satisfy the die-hards amongst her support Cons: 1. Would bring Republicans out in droves to vote against her and probably alienate a number of independents 2. Would compromise Obama's change and anti-Iraq messages 3. Has a couple of of skeletons in the closet. Each of whom has their own closet with skeletons in it. And those skeletons are holding miniature closets each of which has a few dozen midget skeletons inside. 4. If Hillary succeeds in forcing herself onto the ticket it could reinforce the Republican talking point that Obama would be a weak leader. 5. Would probably be a nightmare to manage if Obama were elected to the presidency 6. Bill 7-349 All the poo poo she pulled during the primary campaign 350 Bill again MSNBC veepstakes result: Runner-up Gut prediction: Not going to happen Links: Homepage1 Homepage2 Wikipedia Votesmart OnTheIssues Tom Daschle  Who he? Former Senator from South Dakota and Senate Majority Leader. Early supporter of and key adviser to Obama. Pros: 1. Close to Obama so would work well with him Cons: 1. Managed to lose a relatively safe Senate seat, raising doubts about his campaigning ability 2. Couldn't deliver Obama South Dakota in the primary so it's doubtful he could do so in the general 3. One of only two Democrats to support Bush's domestic surveillance program 4. His wife is a prominent lobbyist MSNBC veepstakes result: Out in second round Gut prediction: Not going to happen Links: Wikipedia OnTheIssues Chris Dodd  Who he? Former House Rep. and current Senator from Connecticut and former candidate for the Democratic presidential nomination. Pros: 1. Like Biden has a shitload of experience 2. Also like Biden is a long-standing member of the Senate Council on Foreign Relations Cons: 1. Being senator from Connecticut is not going to help in the general, and vacating the seat could help Lieberman push for a political ally to take Dodd's place 2. Has pushed through a lot of legislation that helped out the big accounting firms while taking a lot of cash from them. MSNBC veepstakes result: Out in first round Gut prediction: Longshot Links: Homepage1 Homepage2 Wikipedia Votesmart OnTheIssues John Edwards  Who he? Former Senator from North Carolina, Democratic nominee for the vice presidency in 2004 and former candidate for the Democratic presidential nomination. Pros: 1. Significant national name recognition, reflected in polls showing Edwards as the non-Clinton VP candidate who gives Obama the biggest boost 2. Would almost certainly shore up Obama's popularity with non-college educated white voters Cons: 1. Has said he's not that interested in running as VP and possibly actually means it given that his wife is seriously ill with cancer 2. By all accounts was a lacklustre VP candidate during Kerry's campaign 3. Has love children scattered across the globe if you believe the Enquirer MSNBC veepstakes result: Out in fourth round Gut prediction: Longshot Links: Homepage Wikipedia Votesmart OnTheIssues Al Gore  Who he? Vice President under Bill Clinton, former candidate for the presidency, currrent Nobel Laureate and Emperor of the Moon. Pros: 1. Has as much name recognition as anyone, including Hillary Clinton 2. Managed to successfully transform himself from a boring, unimpressive presidential candidate to a major international figure for environmental concerns 3. Pretty much universally loved amongst anyone pro-environment Cons: 1. Might provoke a Republican backlash and boost their turnout 2. It's not clear exactly what votes Gore would deliver that Obama doesn't already largely have 3. It's pretty unlikely that Gore would actually want to get back into politics again MSNBC veepstakes result: Not listed Gut prediction: Not going to happen Links: Homepage Wikipedia Chuck Hagel  Who he? Republican Senator from Nebraska, critic of the Bush administration and the Iraq War. Pros: 1. Would make Obama more appealing to Republicans while boosting his foreign policy credentials Cons: 1. This isn't the 1860s. Unity tickets are pushed every election but never, ever happen for very good reasons. MSNBC veepstakes result: Out in second round Gut prediction: Not going to happen Links: Homepage Wikipedia Votesmart OnTheIssues Tim Kaine  Who he? Governor of Virginia and one of the first major politicians outside Illinois to endorse Barack Obama for president. Pros: 1. Young and charismatic 2. Close to Obama and shares a similar political outlook 3. Would help in Obama's push to take Virginia Cons: 1. Doesn't really bring anything new to the table 2. Has had a fairly chequered governorship, at one point running up $300 million deficit 3. Says he's pro-life and pro-abstinence personally, though his actual record is pro-choice and against abstinence only education MSNBC veepstakes result: Out in second round Gut prediction: Probable Links: Homepage Wikipedia Votesmart OnTheIssues Claire McCaskill  Who she? Junior senator from Missouri Pros: 1. Policial ally of and early endorser of Obama and one of his most visible supporters 2. MO is shaping up to be a key battleground in the general election 3. Has a near spotless senate record having never taken any earmarks Cons: 1. Currently has mediocre approval ratings (48% for versus 46% against) 2. A female VP pick could be risky as it could alienate former Clinton supporters and would certainly lead to the media framing it as a "token female" pick MSNBC veepstakes result: Not listed Gut prediction: Longshot Links: Homepage Wikipedia Votesmart OnTheIssues Janet Napolitano  Who she? Governor of John McCain's home state of Arizona. Pros: 1. Could force McCain to spend money in Arizona, and could help with other south western states Cons: 1. Dogged by rumors that she's gay 2. Same problem as McCaskill as regards the reaction of Clinton supporters and the media MSNBC veepstakes result: Out in first round Gut prediction: Longshot Links: Homepage Wikipedia Votesmart OnTheIssues Sam Nunn  Who he? Current CEO of the Nuclear Threat Initiative, a charitable organisation working to stop the spread of WMDs, chairman of the board at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and former Senator from Georgia (a position he held for 24 years). Pros: 1. Highly experienced 2. Would shore up Obama's foreign policy credentials and could help deliver votes in the South. Cons: 1. Not particularly well known outside of Georgia 2. Right wing on a number of issues including school prayer and DADT MSNBC veepstakes result: Out in third round Gut prediction: Longshot Links: Wikipedia OnTheIssues Ed Rendell  Who he? Governor of Pennsylvania and former chairman of the DNC Pros: 1. Would be a major asset in PA given his popularity and campaigning ability there 2. Potential Clinton sop pick Cons: 1. Made various quotes during the primary that could come back to haunt him 2. Closely tied to convicted fraudster Norman Hsu MSNBC veepstakes result: Not listed Gut prediction: Longshot Links: Homepage Wikipedia Votesmart OnTheIssues Bill Richardson  Who he? Current Governor of New Mexico, former Energy Secretary, Ambassador to the UN, Chairman of the DNC, Chairman of the Democratic Governors Association and candidate for the Democratic presidential nomination. Most prominent Hispanic politician in the Democratic Party. Pros: 1. Has a shitload of experience, especially in foreign policy 2. Would help turn New Mexico blue could help deliver Hispanic votes nationwide 3. Would significantly decrease the chance of Obama being assassinated by a crazy racist Cons: 1. A black guy and a Mexican might be a change too far 2. Still somewhat dogged by questions relating to his handling of the Chinese nuclear espionage episode while Energy Secretary 3. Nominating him VP would probably piss off the Clinton wing of the party royally as he's seen as their Benedict Arnold for endorsing Obama 4. Dogged by rumours that he was somewhat too close to various female staff members MSNBC veepstakes result: Out in second round Gut prediction: Unlikely Links: Homepage1 Homepage2 Wikipedia Votesmart OnTheIssues Bill Ritter  Who he? Governor of Colorado Pros: 1. Very popular in Colorado which is by the Obama campaign as a likely pick-up 2. Generally progressive 3. Former Catholic missionary Cons: 1. Personally pro-life, but generally pro-choice as a governor MSNBC veepstakes result: Not listed Gut prediction: Longshot Links: Homepage Wikipedia Votesmart OnTheIssues Brian Schweitzer  Who he? Governor of Montana Pros: 1. Red state Democrat who like him some guns, so would help appeal to Republicans and Independents 2. Would probably help carry Montana (he has a 70% approval rating) and could help elsewhere in the Mid West 3. By far the best of all the bolo tie wearing Arabic speakers in contention Cons: 1. Montana is only slightly more important than DC when it comes to national elections 2. Has consistently claimed to not be interested in the job 3. Differs with Obama on a number of key policies and has been vocal with his criticism MSNBC veepstakes result: Out in first round Gut prediction: Distant longshot Links: Homepage Wikipedia Votesmart OnTheIssues Kathleen Sebelius  Who she? Governor of Kansas, former chair of the Democratic Governors Association. Pros: 1. Generally regarded as a solid governor and won re-election by 17% 2. Is fairly well known after being chosen to give the Democratic response to Bush's last State of the Union Cons: 1. Polls suggest that she would not help Obama a great deal in Kansas 2. Her State of the Union speech was dull as dishwater 3. Same problem as McCaskill and Napolitano as regards the reaction of Clinton supporters and the media MSNBC veepstakes result: Out in fourth round Gut prediction: Possible Links: Homepage Wikipedia Votesmart OnTheIssues Ted Strickland  Who he? Former House Rep and current Governor of Ohio. Prominent Hillary cheerleader. Pros: 1. Pretty influential and well liked in Ohio, usually seen as acrucial swing state 2. Another potential Clinton compromise candidate Cons: 1. Remember the douchebag nodding in the background during Hillary's "shame on you" rant? That was Ted. MSNBC veepstakes result: Out in second round Gut prediction: Unlikely Links: Homepage Wikipedia Votesmart OnTheIssues Tom Vilsack  Who he? Former governor of Iowa and one of the first people to enter the presidental race this time round. Also first person to drop out of the presidential race this time round, pulling out 11 months before the actual elections started and endorsed Clinton instead. Pros: 1. Iowa is one of the states the Obama campaign have targeted as a pick-up 2. Yet another potential Clinton compromise candidate Cons: 1. His almost complete lack of nationwide name recognition could explain why he dropped out of the presidential race so early MSNBC veepstakes result: Not listed Gut prediction: Not going to happen Links: Wikipedia Votesmart OnTheIssues Mark Warner  Who he? Former Governor of Virginia, currently running for election to Virginia's empty Senate seat. Pros: 1. Hugely popular in Virginia Cons: 1. Has stated that he's only interested in running for Senate 2. Pro-war MSNBC veepstakes result: Not listed Gut prediction: Not going to happen Links: Homepage Wikipedia Votesmart OnTheIssues Jim Webb  Who he? Current Seantor from Virginia, formerly served in the Marine corps in Vietnam and as Reagan's Secretary of the Navy. Pros: 1. Yet another Virginian who could help deliver the state 2. As a highly decorated vet would help dampen McCain's war hero platform 3. Has long been a strident critic of the Iraq War. Cons: 1. By all accounts ran a pretty poor campaign for Senate and only won because his opponent was a crazy racist. 2. Has a notoriously short fuse. 3. A senator midway through their first term isn't going to help on the experience front. 4. The guy who wrote an article on women in the army titled "Women Can't Fight" is probably not going to help win over pissed off Hillary supporters. 5. Rules of Engagement was a lovely film. 6. Has ruled himself out of the race MSNBC veepstakes result: Out in second round Gut prediction: Not going to happen Links: Homepage Wikipedia Votesmart OnTheIssues THE NUMBERS Intrade  Click here for the full 1248x768 image.  Click here for the full 1241x760 image. Betting  Buzzometer[super]TM  Click here for the full 1239x733 image.
|
| # ? Jul 26, 2008 01:17 |
|
|
|
| # ? Dec 02, 2008 11:06 |
|
|
 For McCain the choice of who will be his VP is a far more pressing and important decision than it is for Obama. Not only does his age bring the issue of succession into sharper focus but the current polling and the enthusiasm gap he faces compared to his rival means that he needs to use his VP choice to close the gap somewhat. To make matters even worse the 2006 elections have meant that he has a significantly diminished pool of sitting governors and senators to choose from. In theory that could be compensated by the fact that he also has a wealth of former and current Bush administration appointees available to him, but in reality the fact that McCain has been keen to distance himself from that administration makes such a pick less likely. As with Obama there's essentially two routes McCain could opt for. The first would be to emphasise his strengths by picking somebody with a wealth of national security and/or foreign policy experience who is seen as being apart from the standard Republican machinery. The other and, in my opinion, more likely option is that he could go for someone who could shore up his perceived weaknesses; someone young, or who at least appears young, who could help bring the social and/or financial conservatives on board more enthusiastically (without alienating moderates) and who has (or is seen to have) solid economic credentials. Given the current state polling it's also likely that candidates who may be able to deliver electoral votes will jump up the rankings, while the hint of major or even minor scandals is likely to kill any contender's hopes. Having said all that here's the most prominent contenders: Michael Bloomberg  Who he? Billionaire and Mayor of New York Pros: 1. Having a shitload of money automatically makes him an expert on all matters relating to the economy 2. Would help solve McCain's financing troubles 3. May get favourable coverage from Bloomberg News Cons: 1. A moderate, pro-choice, Jewish mayor from New York is unlikely to make the religious right warm to McCain. 2. Big on gun control. 3. Supports amnesty for illegal immigrants while also supporting a federal DNA and fingerprint database for all citizens thus managing to create a stance guaranteed to piss off 99% of the party. MSNBC veepstakes result: Not listed Gut prediction: Not going to happen Links: Homepage Wikipedia Votesmart Matt Blunt  Who he? Governor of Missouri Pros: 1. Young (at 37 he's the joint youngest serving governor with Bobby Jindal) 2. Former naval officer, so would complement McCain's military background 3. Solid financial conservative (receiving an 'A' from the Cato Institute) and social conservative record 4. Missouri will almost certainly be a key swing state in the upcoming election Cons: 1. Not massively popular in the state 2. Tied to the US Attorneys scandals and the dismissal of Bud Cummings 3. Has had a very spotty history of managing healthcare in the state MSNBC veepstakes result: Not listed Gut prediction: Longshot Links: Homepage Wikipedia Votesmart OnTheIssues Jeb Bush  Who he? W's little brother and former governor of Florida Pros: 1. Could probably help deliver Florida Cons: 1. If you're trying to distance yourself from George W Bush putting his brother on the ticket isn't the best move MSNBC veepstakes result: Out in second round Gut prediction: Not going to happen Links: Homepage Wikipedia OnTheIssues Charlie Crist  Who he? Governor of Florida Pros: 1. Helped deliver McCain Florida in the primaries and would almost certainly do so in the general. 2. Solidly socially conservative. Cons: 1. Support for emission standards could piss off financial conservatives. 2. If Obama chooses to cede Florida it's unclear where else Crist could deliver votes. 3. Scuttlebutt in Florida is that he likes it in the scuttlebutt (though he coincidentally enough announced his plans to marry his girlfriend a couple of weeks ago). MSNBC veepstakes result: Out in first round Gut prediction: Possible Links: Homepage Wikipedia Votesmart OnTheIssues Carly Fiorina  Who she? Former CEO of Lucent Technologies and Hewlett Packard Pros: 1. Lacks a penis 2. Would boost McCain's economic credentials... Cons: 1. ...until people took a closer look at her time at Lucent and HP which could charitably be described as "disastrous". MSNBC veepstakes result: Not listed Gut prediction: Unlikely Links: Wikipedia Rudy Giuliani  Who he? Former Mayor of New York and former candidate for the Republican Presidential nomination Pros: 9. 11. Cons: 1. His presidential campaign suggested that he's a very popular until people actually get to know him 2. Has more skeletons in his closet than Pol Pot's furniture maker 3. More loathed amongst social conservatives than McCain MSNBC veepstakes result: Out in second round Gut prediction: Not going to happen Links: Wikipedia Votesmart OnTheIssues Lindsey Graham  Who he? Former Air Force Colonel and current Senior Senator from South Carolina Pros: 1. Long-standing friend and political ally of McCain 2. Gulf War vet Cons: 1. Has little name recognition outside of SC 2. Seen as almost as much of a "maverick" as McCain MSNBC veepstakes result: Out in first round Gut prediction: Longshot Links: Homepage Wikipedia Votesmart OnTheIssues Mike Huckabee  Who he? Baptist preacher, former Governor of Arkansas and former candidate for the Republican Presidential nomination Pros: 1. Loved by the religious right and the media 2. He might be crazy but, gosh darn it, he's just so drat likable Cons: 1. Liable to scare off anyone even a little socially moderate 2. Prone to saying and doing really stupid poo poo from time to time 3. Has a pretty poor fiscal record as governor 4. Eats squirrels MSNBC veepstakes result: Out in third round Gut prediction: Not going to happen Links: Homepage Wikipedia Votesmart OnTheIssues Kay Bailey Hutchison  Who she? The Senior Senator from Texas Pros: 1. Prominent female choice if McCain wants to try to sway disenchanted former Hillary supporters Cons: 1. Hasn't accomplished a whole lot in the Senate. 2. Is unlikely to deliver much in the way of electoral votes. 3. Pro-choice. 4. At 64 wouldn't bring youth to the ticket. MSNBC veepstakes result: Out in second round Gut prediction: Not going to happen Links: Homepage Wikipedia Votesmart OnTheIssues Bobby Jindal  Who he? Indian-American governor of Louisiana Pros: 1. At 37 is pretty much as young as they get 2. Smart and a great speaker 3. Has made a success of his governorship so far despite taking over in the wake of Katrina 4. Solidly socially conservative 5. Seen as one of the GOP's rising stars Cons: 1. May cost McCain the "won't vote for a black guy" vote 2. This rising star might not want to hitch itself to this particular wagon (mixed metaphors itt) 3. Has a tendency to believe that women that come on to him are possessed by the devil MSNBC veepstakes result: Out in fourth round Gut prediction: Longshot Links: Homepage Wikipedia Votesmart OnTheIssues Joe Lieberman  Who he? Former Democratic Vice Presidential candidate and former Democratic, now independent, Senator from Connecticut Pros: 1. Close ally of McCain's and endorsed him for president Cons: 1. A pro-choice, pro-gay marriage, pro-environment, pro-affirmative action, Jewish former Democrat from the north east is not going to massively help McCain win over sceptics within the GOP MSNBC veepstakes result: Out in third round Gut prediction: Unlikely Links: Homepage Wikipedia Votesmart OnTheIssues Sarah Palin  Who she? Governor of Alaska and former Miss Alaska contestant Pros: 1. Both young and female 2. Hugely popular within Alaska 3. Solid social conservative credentials Cons: 1. Alaska isn't exactly a swing state and influence in neighbouring states is negligible unless Bush plans to annex Canada 2. May be another young up and coming Republican who opts to sit this election out 3. Currently caught up in a scandal involving the firing of a state trooper who divorced her sister MSNBC veepstakes result: Out in second round Gut prediction: Unlikely Links: Homepage Wikipedia Votesmart OnTheIssues Tim Pawlenty  Who he? Governor of Minnesota and chairman of the National Governors Association Pros: 1. National co-chair of McCain's presidential campaign 2. Minnesota would be a major pick-up for McCain if he could deliver it 3. Solid social and fiscal conservative credentials 4. Tough on immigration Cons: 1. Squeaked re-election in 2006 by 1% 2. Might have a tough time defending his tightness with the transport budget both before and after the I-35 bridge collapse MSNBC veepstakes result: Out in fourth round Gut prediction: Probable Links: Homepage Wikipedia Votesmart OnTheIssues Rob Portman  Who he? Former Director of the Office of Management and Budget, United States Trade Representative and House Rep from Ohio Pros: 1. Best of the candidates in terms of economics credentials 2. Would help in Ohio and may help in the midwest 3. Relatively young and seen as a rising star of the party 4. Solid conservative reputation Cons: 1. Tied to the Bush administration 2. May prefer to sit this one out in favour of going for a senate seat or the governorship of Ohio MSNBC veepstakes result: Out in first round Gut prediction: Unlikely Links: Wikipedia Colin Powell  Who he? Former National Security Advisor, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and Secretary of State Pros: 1. Unmatched military, national security and foreign policy credentials 2. Popular amongst the Republican base 3. Could perhaps sway some African American voters McCain's way Cons: 1. Heavily tied to the Bush administration and the invasion of Iraq 2. Might cost McCain a slice of the racist vote 3. Has said rather a lot of quite flattering things about Obama MSNBC veepstakes result: Runner-up Gut prediction: Not going to happen Links: Wikipedia OnTheIssues Condoleezza Rice  Who she? Former National Security Advisor and current Secretary of Sate Pros: 1. Is both black and a woman, it's a twofer! Cons: 1. Wouldn't exactly be the best choice if McCain wants to distance himself from the Bush administration's foreign policy MSNBC veepstakes result: Out in third round Gut prediction: Distant longshot Links: Wikipedia Tom Ridge  Who he? Former governor of Pennsylvania and first Secretary of Homeland Security Pros: 1. Would be a majro asset in PA 2. Strong national security credentials Cons: 1. Not exactly young 2. Heavily tied to the Bush administration 3. Pro-choice 4. Strong lobbyist ties MSNBC veepstakes result: Out in second round Gut prediction: Unlikely Links: Wikipedia OnTheIssues Willard "Mitt" Romney  Who he? Multi-millionaire former Governor of Massachusetts and candidate for the Republican Presidential nomination Pros: 1. Polls suggest he'd offer a significant boost in Michigan and Nevada 2. Popular with the fiscal conservative wing of the party and right wing talking heads 3. May serve to dampen Obama's popularity in the mid-west 4. Looks a lot younger than he actually is Cons: 1. Dubious social conservative credentials; never managed to win over social conservatives even with Limbaugh and co. shilling for him 2. Pretty piss poor at debates 3. Possibly the slimiest politician in existence MSNBC veepstakes result: Winner Gut prediction: Probable Links: Homepage Wikipedia Votesmart OnTheIssues Mark Sanford  Who he? Former House Rep. and current Governor of South Carolina Pros: 1. Popular as governor with 61% approval rating 2. Big in the libertarian wing of the party Cons: 1. South Carolina's not going to be in play 2. The libertarians are not exactly the most powerful lobby in the GOP MSNBC veepstakes result: Out in second round Gut prediction: Unlikely Links: Homepage Wikipedia Votesmart OnTheIssues Fred Thompson  Who he? Former Senator from Tennessee, lawyer, actor and candidate for the Republican Presidential nomination Pros: 1. Popular on the internet 2. He totally burned Michael Moore Cons: 1. Managed to run a campaign that went from joint favourite for the nomination to vigorously challenging write-ins for "penis" 2. Loves him his lobbyist money MSNBC veepstakes result: Out in second round Gut prediction: Not going to happen Links: Homepage Wikipedia Votesmart OnTheIssues OnTheIssues John Thune  Who he? Junior senator from South Dakota Pros: 1. Young 2. Impeccable social conservative record 3. Strong campaign record, having ousted Tom Daschle to get his senate seat 4. SD is one of the states the Obama campaign has targetted as a potential pickup Cons: 1. Unknown outside of SD 2. His impeccable social conservative record could lead independents to run a mile 3. Said the Iraq war would be a good opportunity for Christian conversion 4. Has worked for lobbying firms in the recent past MSNBC veepstakes result: Out in third round Gut prediction: Distant longshot Links: Homepage Wikipedia Votesmart THE NUMBERS Intrade  Click here for the full 1253x758 image.  Click here for the full 1248x758 image. Betting  BuzzometerTM  Click here for the full 1235x744 image.
|
| # ? Jul 26, 2008 01:17 |
|
|
Nice work on this. I'll admit I hadn't even heard of some of these guys, on both sides. How relevant do you think the market numbers are for predicting results? Traders aren't privy to any information that we aren't, so it seems more like a hype measurement than any insight into the campaigns' decisions.
|
| # ? Jul 26, 2008 01:29 |
|
|
Strong work. The Giuliani write-up took me a second, but that was incredibly hilarious.
|
| # ? Jul 26, 2008 01:31 |
|
|
Thanks, Daduzi. For what it's worth (albeit very, very little), This Week w/ George Stephanopolous had the Obama's shortlist down to Bayh, Biden, Kaine and HilRod. Out of those, I think the best choice is easily Kaine. I love Biden, but put him in the cabinet. As for the other side of the aisle I can't make any predictions, but drat I hope he chooses Romney.
|
| # ? Jul 26, 2008 01:32 |
|
|
Evan Bayh does not actually exist, you can't prove it. His entire fake existence is predicated on the need for pundits to fill airtime and column inches with nonsensical VP "picks." He's the inverse of Snake Plissken, like "Evan Bayh! I thought you was alive!" Rumor has it that if you look in the mirror and say his name three times the Democratic Congress will roll over and pass a giveaway to corporate special interests.
|
| # ? Jul 26, 2008 01:33 |
|
|
Twinxor posted:How relevant do you think the market numbers are for predicting results? Traders aren't privy to any information that we aren't, so it seems more like a hype measurement than any insight into the campaigns' decisions. It true that they are mostly a measure of buzz. That doesn't mean they are without value though I think. If a campaign has indeed found a VP they might begin to get his name out in subtle ways to reinforce the decision before they announce. That may show up as a huge gain in one of these measures.
|
| # ? Jul 26, 2008 01:33 |
|
|
I have lots of money riding on Obama's pick NOT being HRC/Gore (duh) and have a strong suspicion that it WILL be Sebellius, Kaine, or Bayh. Those three are the ones that make the most sense of a somewhat mediocre field. Biden and Nunn are possible tier 2 picks, but both have major drawbacks. Strickland and Rendell round out the back of the pack solely due to their pro-HRC credentials, but the PUMAs have marginalized themselves enough that nobody cares anymore, so they're done. On the Republican side, Romney is the clear #1 for everyone except the actual candidate. If McCain weren't famous for holding grudges, I'd consider him a lock. As it stands, though, given that the rumor is McCain has already made up his mind, it looks like the writing is on the wall. Barring McCain unbending, I would look for Pawlenty to be the pick, although I wouldn't be *shocked* to see Romney. The only two other serious candidates are Portman and Crist (who's not getting it because McCain is not dumb enough to pull an Eagleton. Also, marrying someone in the most obviously timed effort to scuttle the rumors in a decade is really loving creepy.) Jindal would be an option in a different election, but not this cycle and not with his "ten year old incest victims must carry their baby to term" stance; look for him to transparently moderate that crap in the next eight years. Huckabee would also be an option, but people that think they are in serious contention for a VP slot don't announce plans to host news shows on cable. If I had to go with just two people, it would be Sebellius (with Bayh a very close second) and Pawlenty.
|
| # ? Jul 26, 2008 01:37 |
|
|
Can anyone really prove substantially that Romney would bring anything to Michigan that isn't based off that ridiculous SurveyUSA poll? I know his dad was a governor there, I just don't see that translating into votes especially when we're in a big economic recession and you have a multimillionaire VP who largely profitted off the backs of now unemployed industrial laborers in Flint. The Mormon vote in the West is a different story, which is why I think McCain will ultimately take a chance on Romney, but I don't see Michigan as anything other than a could-be media story. For what it's worth, I want to casually point out that I have predicted Kaine/Romney since March, in case this scenario comes to pass and you can all admire my punditry skills.
|
| # ? Jul 26, 2008 01:38 |
|
|
The biggest "con" against Biden isn't the things mentioned in the OP, it's that he never met a banking or credit-card industry-written bill he didn't like and shove through Congress. Considering that the economy is the no. 1 concern among Americans at the moment, there's no loving way the v.p. will be the co-sponsor of the lovely 2005 bankruptcy "reform" bill, which now gives hospitals the right to foreclose on patients' homes in lieu of nonpayment. Also, while I agree that Obama won't pick Clinton, I think the list of "cons" for her is pretty specious. If there are any skeletons that $71 million and 7 years of Ken Starr's life didn't uncover, I doubt they'd come to light during the 2008 general election.
|
| # ? Jul 26, 2008 01:39 |
|
|
The Tourist posted:Bayh, Biden, Kaine and HilRod. Was this based off a leak or something? I've always thought Sebellius was the best choice, kind of disappointed if she's not even still in the running.
|
| # ? Jul 26, 2008 01:39 |
|
|
Twinxor posted:How relevant do you think the market numbers are for predicting results? Traders aren't privy to any information that we aren't, so it seems more like a hype measurement than any insight into the campaigns' decisions. I think something like Intrade can be useful provided you look at it the right way. Like you said most traders are not any more informed than the average D&D poster (less so quite often) and are also just as prone to personal bias (I think for instance Hillary Clinton's high numbers are a combination of a lot of people trading early on little more than name recognition and the fading hopes of a number of former Clinton supporters). So, yeah, it's use as an absolute predictor is limited. What it is useful for, however, is seeing at a glance what happened when. For instance you can see Webb's numbers drop off dramatically following his announcement he wasn't interested in the job while Clark's numbers similarly drop off after his comments regarding McCain's Vietnam experience. It's also useful for seeing who has been getting the most media attention, albeit bearing in mind the occasional screwy results it can throw up.
|
| # ? Jul 26, 2008 01:40 |
|
|
Daduzi posted:I think something like Intrade can be useful provided you look at it the right way. Like you said most traders are not any more informed than the average D&D poster (less so quite often) and are also just as prone to personal bias (I think for instance Hillary Clinton's high numbers are a combination of a lot of people trading early on little more than name recognition and the fading hopes of a number of former Clinton supporters). So, yeah, it's use as an absolute predictor is limited. What it is useful for, however, is seeing at a glance what happened when. For instance you can see Webb's numbers drop off dramatically following his announcement he wasn't interested in the job while Clark's numbers similarly drop off after his comments regarding McCain's Vietnam experience. It's also useful for seeing who has been getting the most media attention, albeit bearing in mind the occasional screwy results it can throw up. Am I better informed than most people on Intrade? Sure (just look at their forums - some real LF material in there.) Do I consider myself to be +EV in this market? Extremely. Should you use my picks to predict who the VP will be? Maybe in percentage terms, but jeez, don't write any term papers about it.
|
| # ? Jul 26, 2008 01:43 |
|
|
Mopey Dick posted:Also, while I agree that Obama won't pick Clinton, I think the list of "cons" for her is pretty specious. If there are any skeletons that $71 million and 7 years of Ken Starr's life didn't uncover, I doubt they'd come to light during the 2008 general election. There's been a number of business deals conducted by either her, her husband or both since Bill left office that have a lot of potential to blow up in the event that she ended up on the ticket. There's enough of a stink about them for the right wing media to launch into a frenzy even if there's not anything actually illegal or immoral going on.
|
| # ? Jul 26, 2008 01:44 |
|
|
qalnor posted:Was this based off a leak or something? I've always thought Sebellius was the best choice, kind of disappointed if she's not even still in the running.
|
| # ? Jul 26, 2008 01:47 |
|
|
Daduzi posted:There's been a number of business deals conducted by either her, her husband or both since Bill left office that have a lot of potential to blow up in the highly unlikely event that she ended up on the ticket. Which "business deals" did she conduct that haven't yet been brought to light? I can see how BC's refusing to disclose donors for his library might be considered a smoking gun or a dealbreaker, but I've heard of no rumors of shady deals conducted by her personally since back in the Whitewater days.
|
| # ? Jul 26, 2008 01:47 |
|
|
Mopey Dick posted:The biggest "con" against Biden isn't the things mentioned in the OP, it's that he never met a banking or credit-card industry-written bill he didn't like and shove through Congress.
|
| # ? Jul 26, 2008 01:51 |
|
|
Adar posted:I am a major player on Intrade (not ridiculously huge, but I have made the market move by myself at times; for example, I made up 95% of the Webb shorting when he bowed out) and I obviously have no inside info at all. Right. Financial markets are conveniently self-fulfilling - if most traders believe the price of oil will rise, naturally it will rise. But the outcome of an abstract market like Intrade isn't likely to have much influence on Obama's VP choice, so I think it's mainly representative of the imaginations of Intrade users.
|
| # ? Jul 26, 2008 01:52 |
|
|
Adar posted:George Stephanopoulous is a giant Clintonista bandwagon jockey and has pretty much been in the tank for her/against Obama since last year. Everything GS, Politico and Novak, AKA The 2008 Trio of Suck <TM>, have put out has to be taken with a giant grain of salt, because they've either been wildly wrong, have a huge agenda, or both. In this case, for example, GS hates Sebellius (because she's a non-HRC woman candidate) and has done a lot to downplay her chances over the last couple of months. Yeah, again, everyone - don't take much from that. That said, Sebelius is the only one absent from the list who I think may well be on the REAL list at this point
|
| # ? Jul 26, 2008 01:53 |
|
|
Adar posted:George Stephanopoulous is a giant Clintonista bandwagon jockey and has pretty much been in the tank for her/against Obama since last year. Everything GS, Politico and Novak, AKA The 2008 Trio of Suck <TM>, have put out has to be taken with a giant grain of salt, because they've either been wildly wrong, have a huge agenda, or both. In this case, for example, GS hates Sebellius (because she's a non-HRC woman candidate) and has done a lot to downplay her chances over the last couple of months. Ok thanks, that was my gut reaction when I saw his name, because I remember him from the Clinton years, but I don't pay enough attention to mainstream media poo poo to feel confident dismissing something like that. The Tourist posted:Yeah, again, everyone - don't take much from that. That said, Sebelius is the only one absent from the list who I think may well be on the REAL list at this point Yeah and I'd take Biden and Clinton off the list personally. qalnor fucked around with this message at Jul 26, 2008 around 01:57 |
| # ? Jul 26, 2008 01:53 |
|
|
ReindeerF posted:This is definitely his biggest minus and even though I love the guy for foreign policy honesty, it's really hard to forgive how much he's willing to bend over on financial regulation. Still, I don't think it would hurt that much in the election since the average person doesn't even seem to know about the bankruptcy laws, let alone be able to connect them to Joe Biden. Making that stick requires explaining something that's not catchy and that tends to not stick. I mean McCain was part of the Keating Five and one of his top campaign people was representing the Burmese junta as a lobbyist or some such thing and no one gives a poo poo. Now if he couldn't name the price of milk or something, well, that's the kind of thing we just can't have in America, a President who doesn't know how much milk costs or who, god forbid, doesn't always put their hand over their heart during The National Anthem. In that light I think Biden's voting record with respect to the financial industry wouldn't alienate too much of the voting public since he'd downplay it and the Republicans wouldn't want to crow too loudly about it, leaving only the Kossacks to bang on about it (not that they're forgettable entirely, but they're always going to be mad about something). I dunno, I'd rather see him in a cabinet position than as v.p. Between his economic record, his three aneurysms, and his tendency toward verbal gaffes, I don't think he's the strongest choice for Obama. The Keating 5 was eons ago in political time, and 527s would ignore it anyway in painting Biden as a tool of the financial industry. It's not that Kossacks would freak out about Biden, it's that the ticket could easily be painted as cavalier toward economic matters, since that's where McCain himself is weak, and since it's such a hotbutton issue for most voters.
|
| # ? Jul 26, 2008 02:03 |
|
|
Mopey Dick posted:Which "business deals" did she conduct that haven't yet been brought to light? As far as her personally there's not a whole lot (though I do recall vaguely something relating to a contributor to her campaign that was all the poo poo on Youtube a while ago back, though obviously that needs to be taken with a huge pinch of salt) but Bill has certainly been involved in a couple of deals with overseas agents that have something of a smell to them, and though she got a relatively easy ride over them during the primaries, for various reasons, I have no doubt plenty of media outlets would be all over them were she to be the VP nominee.
|
| # ? Jul 26, 2008 02:04 |
|
|
drat, that is one hell of an excellent post Daduzi. Most impressive. At this point, with the way the McCain campaign can't seem to do anything right (or anything at all, HURR WE ARE AT GERMAN RESTAURANT), I'm expecting them to announce that it will be McCain/Clinton-Giuliani '08! That's right, Rudy and Hillary for co-Vice President! It's historic! The first woman and strange, reptilian man on the ticket ever!
|
| # ? Jul 26, 2008 02:13 |
|
|
The funniest VP poll result I've seen is that Colin Powell does the best on each ticket among that party's voters.
|
| # ? Jul 26, 2008 02:22 |
|
|
Mopey Dick posted:The funniest VP poll result I've seen is that Colin Powell does the best on each ticket among that party's voters. Well honestly I think if you threw Mr T, Tom Hanks and Mickey Mouse on a poll like this you'd probably have them getting more than most. VP selection is rarely about picking someone ordinary people have actually heard of.
|
| # ? Jul 26, 2008 02:25 |
|
|
http://edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/07/23/veep.talk/quote:One day after it was revealed that Sen. John McCain was to hold a closed-door meeting with Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, a Republican, Jindal said Wednesday that there is no way he will fill the bottom half of the GOP presidential ticket.
|
| # ? Jul 26, 2008 02:30 |
|
|
I have a feeling Obama will pick Kaine, and Sword of Chomsky fucked around with this message at Jul 26, 2008 around 02:40 |
| # ? Jul 26, 2008 02:37 |
|
|
Speaking of VPs nobody has ever heard of, can McCain really expect to get a bump in the polls once he's announced his? McCain is about as popular as Republicans can get this cycle, and whoever he picks will be seen as "generic Republican," except maybe Romney but that's another can of worms. Nobody votes for the VP, but nobody wants to vote for generic Republican either; unless the VP has an interesting bio that can be replayed for 3 days straight on cable news I don't expect much of any result.
|
| # ? Jul 26, 2008 02:41 |
|
|
Sword of Chomsky posted:I have a feeling Obama will pick Kaine, and Mittens or Pawlenty. For me personally, he can't go wrong with either, because Mittens is such a horrible debater that he wouldn't bring much to the ticket, and because Pawlenty would be exposed for the douchebag he is (and he wouldn't deliver Minnesota). e: Agree on Kaine.
|
| # ? Jul 26, 2008 02:42 |
|
|
I think one of the cruel ironies of this election season is Bill Richardson having absolutely no chance as the Veep spot precisely because he chose integrity over political expediency. Had he kept his drat mouth shut during the primaries he could have offered the ticket his strengths in |
