Bank of Hawaii outlook: Arrivals to fall 3.9%
Pacific Business News (Honolulu) - by Jim Kelly
Hawaii will see about 280,000 fewer visitors this year than in 2007, according to a new forecast issued Friday by the Bank of Hawaii.
In the first comprehensive economic outlook issued since Aloha and ATA airlines stopped flying, Bank of Hawaii economist Paul Brewbaker said visitor arrivals will fall 3.9 percent, the number of jobs will slip .03 percent and personal income growth will be practically flat at .01 percent.
Brewbaker estimates the visitor count for 2008 at 7.08 million, down from 7.36 million last year. But he is also forecasting a fairly strong recovery in 2009 with arrivals up 3.8 percent to 7.21 million.
Brewbaker's numbers represent a significant change from his last forecast issued Jan. 30, which anticipated stronger job and income growth. He had also forecast visitor arrivals to fall 2 percent, so the latest forecast is nearly a doubling of that number.
"Weaker than expected Mainland economic fundamentals, higher than expected oil and commodity prices, a harder than expected credit crunch and a weaker than previously reported starting point for Hawaii employment and income all contributed to a more conservative 2008-2009 outlook," Brewbaker wrote. These events came on top of the unexpected shutdowns of two airlines, the withdrawal of two cruise ships from Hawaii service and the closure of Molokai Ranch.
"Collectively, all of these events imply potentially large downward revisions to at least some of these forecasts and they will remain in flux for some time," Brewbaker wrote.
The report is available at www.boh.com/econ
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