CAIRO — I’ve been on the phone today again with people in the Tripoli area in Libya, and I had an inquiry that goes to the heart of the need for NATO, the United States and Europe to move more forcefully. Several Libyan navy ships were ordered to bombard the city of Benghazi, which has been liberated by rebels. The ships’ officers don’t want to do that and don’t like Qaddafi, and they’re also fearful that if they attack Benghazi they’ll be attacked right back by shore batteries. They would like to make a run for Malta and defect, but they fear that the Libyan air force is watching them and will bomb them if they head in that direction. And the commanding officers also aren’t entirely sure who on board is trustworthy and who isn’t. They’re in a bind.
So a trusted intermediary made an appeal to me: Could NATO or the United States assure safe passage to Malta if the ships were to declare that they are no longer obeying Qaddafi orders?
That should be a no-brainer for us. Why can’t NATO announce a safe passage route for planes and ships that are disobeying Qaddafi orders? I’d like to see us all go further and announce a no-fly zone and a no-sail zone, but a safe passage corridor for elements in the Libyan military is a start.
Look, there’s probably nothing we can do to convince Qaddafi and his sons not to fight to the end. So that makes it essential that we try to peel away as much of his military force as possible, and there are signs that that is very feasible. I’ve heard an estimate that only 10 percent of the Libyan military officers are really with Qaddafi: the rest aren’t necessarily against him, but just don’t want to pick sides.
Earlier today, I heard about an Air Force base that is just keeping its head down, with commanders hoping and praying that rebels will arrive soon and “liberate” them. They’re not quite ready to join the rebels of their own volition, but they have no stomach to fight on behalf of Qaddafi — especially because of a growing perception that his time is running out. So we should be sending every signal possible to Libyan military units that they should stand down, and in the case of planes and ships we should help them do that.
I also think we should make clear that American ground troops are not going to be dispatched to Libya. That would be controversial, and Qaddafi is already portraying this as an imperialist land grab — we don’t want to play into that narrative. Likewise, it would help if we coordinated our safe corridors and/or no-fly and no-sail zones with Tunisia and Egypt to give us a bit more legitimacy in these efforts. At the end of the day, many Libyans are horrified by what Qaddafi is doing and want outside help getting him out — but are also uneasy about Americans landing on Libyan soil and doing that. The other measures I’m talking about, such as a no-fly zone, would go over much better than a direct intervention.
Meanwhile, I keep hearing unbelievable stories of the courage of Libyan protesters. After noon prayers, some protesters congregated in the Suq Juma area of Tripoli, but by one account an unmarked car full of security forces approached and opened fire on the protesters before racing off. Some five people may have been killed there.
Then in Tajura, about 10 miles from Tripoli, thousands of people gathered and began marching on Tripoli to demand that Qaddafi leave, according to a man from Tajura. But as they approached they were fired on directly with machine guns. Many injured, and an unknown number of fatalities. The injured in these shootings face the added problem that they can’t be taken to Tripoli hospitals, because there have been credible reports of police going to the hospitals and executing or kidnapping patients seeking treatment for injuries inflicted by security forces.
One question I don’t know the answer to: Does Libya have chemical or biological weapons that are unaccounted for? As rebels raid weapons depots around the country and help themselves, is there a risk of sarin nerve gas becoming available on the international black market?
I outlined my suggestions for the moves we can take in a column Thursday, and I’m glad there are some international steps in that direction –but I also fear that we’re moving far too slowly. Your thoughts?