Betreff: The Flu got a Flu got a ... |
Datum: Fri, 22 Oct 2004 10:02:49 +0200 |
Thursday 21 October 2004
Dr. Rodney Sherman, an oncologist on the Upper East Side of Manhattan who has 350 chronically ill patients in need of protection against the flu, is giving up on the United States government.
After weeks of trying to get answers as to whether he is in line to get vaccine - and calm his patients' fears - he has decided to take matters into his own hands.
This morning, he is flying to Canada, hoping to buy vaccine, even though he does not know if any will be available.
It is a measure of how desperate private doctors in New York have become. While hospitals, clinics and nursing homes have all been surveyed by the state to determine what they need, private doctors say they have felt ignored.
William Van Slyke, a deputy commissioner of the New York State Health Department, said that while New York's 70,000 private physicians have not been asked what they need, officials at the Centers for Disease Control in Atlanta are checking with the two major manufacturers to determine who did not receive vaccine.
As the flu season draws nearer, Dr. Sherman said, that explanation offers little comfort.
"I am frantic," Dr. Sherman added. "This is bordering on insanity."
Dr. Svetlana Kogan, who runs a practice in Queens and treats 500 people who need the vaccine, agrees. She has no vaccine and cannot even get a shot for a patient who suffering from a deficient white blood cell count and is terribly at risk because of a ravaged immune system.
"There is a daily newsletter," she said, to alert doctors where the remaining vaccine is going. "But it doesn't make it easy for a private solo practice like this one because we are kind of out of the loop."
She said she was considering banding together with a group of other private doctors and going to Canada.
Like the rest of the country, New York doctors are trying to make the best of a difficult situation, but they say they face some unique challenges. The city has large numbers of chronically ill patients who come from around the world to receive care from top-notch private physicians. Even the way New Yorkers live, one on top of the other, adds a degree of risk.
Despite repeated assurances from public officials that there will be enough vaccine for everyone who needs it, not one doctor interviewed believed that would be the case.
Dr. Stephen Baum, chairman of the Department of Medicine at Beth Israel Medical Center and an infectious disease specialist, said, "I think it is reasonable to say that, by and large, the people who get it will need it, but not everyone who needs it will get it."
He said that given the shortage, there were often no good choices as to who gets vaccine and who does not, but he understood the concern of the doctors.
"The physicians in private practice do not have adequate supplies of influenza vaccine on hand and do not have likelihood of getting it," he said.
Americans who travel to Canada for the vaccine are likely to find themselves competing for a small supply. Canada has no shortage of the vaccine because it did not rely on Chiron, the company whose vaccine was contaminated, but any excess supply would cover only a fraction of the United States shortfall.
In the provinces of Alberta and Ontario, pharmacists have been warned not to sell any of the public supply of the flu vaccine to non-Canadians. But pharmacies are free to sell additional flu shots they have bought privately from their own suppliers. The shots are being sold for $8 to $40.
In the small Saskatchewan town of Estevan, just nine miles of the North Dakota border, more than 100 Americans arrived at Henders Drug for flu shots on Tuesday, said the store's pharmacist and co-owner, Larry Preddy.
"The Americans have run into an unfortunate situation that was out of their control," said Mr. Preddy, who planned to offer the shots every Tuesday and Thursday to anyone who showed up until the end of November, or as long as his supplies lasted. "The flu virus certainly doesn't discriminate and I don't think we should either."
The Canadian government announced that it could send as many as one million flu shots from its excess public supply to the United States, but only after Canadian needs are guaranteed. "If we can share it in a way that doesn't jeopardize the safety and supply for Canadians, we would do so," said the health minister, Ujjal Dosanjh.
In Atlanta, Dr. Mitchell Cohen, director of the Coordinating Center for Infectious Diseases at the C.D.C., said he was optimistic that the 20 million doses that scheduled to be shipped out in the next six to eight weeks would meet the needs of those most at risk. The federal government is talking to the manufacturers and will determine the number of doses New York and other states received or did not receive. The C.D.C. will use that data to help determine how much of the remaining vaccine to send to each state, but it will then be up to local officials to decide how the supply is distributed, Dr. Cohen said.
He said the C.D.C. hoped to notify states how much they would be sent within the next week or two.
Those most at risk of having serious complications if they do not get flu shots are children younger than 2, adults older than 65 and the chronically ill. This third group is varied, from people with severe respiratory illnesses to cancer patients to those with H.I.V. Doctors across the city said there did not seem to be any prioritizing to get vaccine to the sickest people in those categories.
Dr. Sherman said he had many patients whose immune systems had been battered by chemotherapy and were too sick to stand in long lines in the slim hope of getting a shot. He has called around the city, asking colleagues for spare vaccine, as well as asking city and state health officials for help, all to no avail.
In fact, he said the city directed him to call the state, which he did, only to be directed back to the city.
Many doctors said they had taken extra precautions this year because of problems in recent years, but, in the end, getting the vaccine was largely a matter of luck.
There are two main suppliers of vaccine in the United States. One of them, Chiron, did not distribute any vaccine because its supply, made at a British factory, was contaminated, leaving doctors across the country with only about half of the 100 million doses they were expecting.
Dr. Jeffrey B. Greene, a professor of clinical medicine at the New York University School of Medicine, runs a private practice with roughly 600 H.I.V. and AIDS patients in need of the vaccine and considers himself one of the lucky few to get doses because he ordered a year in advance and in bulk. Roughly half of the city's H.I.V. and AIDS patients are treated by private physicians, he said, so doctors have the unenviable task of doing triage to determine who gets what little vaccine remains.
"I had doctors from all over the city asking if I could send them some vaccine," said Dr. Greene, who did not receive his entire shipment. He could send them none.
Dr. Ronald Primas, an internist in Manhattan, has also been besieged by calls. "C.E.O.'s are calling in and asking for shots," he said. But, unlike his patients, once the C.E.O.'s are denied, they stop calling. "We don't get a call back from them so I am sure they are getting the shots somewhere else," he said.
Many doctors said they were recommending that patients who desperately need flu shots go to an emergency room, something hospitals fear because their own supplies are limited, if they have any at all.
For patients, all of this is maddening, to say the least. Elinor Brecher's struggle to find vaccine for her sick father, Walter, is common.
Mr. Brecher, 90, a retired theater owner whose family once owned the Apollo in Harlem, lives on the Upper East Side, wears a pacemaker and receives dialysis three days a week. He is on the higher end of the risk scale, and doctors have told her that he would die if he got sick, but all attempts to find a dose of the vaccine have proved futile.
"It is frightening and infuriating," Ms. Brecher said, adding that she would continue her search. "I have to wonder when and where the prioritizing will start, and how old, sick people who are not so fortunate as to have good doctors and caring children will be able to find it."
Nonetheless, the vaccine has made it to some unusual quarters. Vice President Dick Cheney got one, according to aides, citing his history of heart problems, as did the Senate majority leader, Bill Frist, a heart surgeon who is considered healthy. The Texas Department of Criminal Justice says that it has received 1,100 doses of flu vaccine for the high-risk prison inmates, including several on death row who fall into the category of chronically ill, over 65, immune deficient or pregnant.
"Any
inmate in
our system is our responsibility," said the department's spokeswoman,
Michelle Lyons, noting that in the close quarters of a prison, sickness
can spread fast.
The Flu Scare Game...
DOMESTIC TERRORISM CONTINUES...
http://www.lewrockwell.com/keller/keller20.html
by John Keller
I always know when it's flu season. First, the media begins its usual role as hysterical government press secretary, uncritically trumpeting the same cooked numbers about the coming flu epidemic. The steady drone of recent broadcasts, including one on NBC's Today Show (10/6/04), warn that the flu kills about 36,000 people every year in the United States. The broadcasts usually cite the CDC as the source of this huge number. This is borne out by the main CDC page, with its immediate link to flu information and statistics. It's a crock, a lie, and a sham; a conspiracy to generate fear and stampede people to use a vaccine of questionable effectiveness to the benefit of pro-immunization bureaucrats, and big pharma. Sounds harsh, but follow the math and the money.
A cursory glance at the most recent (2001) death statistics from the Data Highlights page posted on the CDC site, shows that Influenza and Pneumonia (International Cause of Death numbers J10 and J18) killed 62,034 people. Quick mental subtraction would tell you that just over half were killed by the flu, versus pneumonia, if the 36,000 number is correct. So far, the size of the flu epidemic seems plausible. Here's the link to the National Vital Statistics System page within the CDC site that has the Data Highlights and Full Reports.
This is important, because the Data Highlights page is just that, a single page highlight of all the various mortality stats gathered by the CDC. Now, let's dig into the more detailed reports. The "Deaths: Final Data for 2001" report is an 8MB PDF. Skip it unless you want all the charts detailing deaths by race, age, and ethnicity. The 2002 preliminary report contains the interesting parts of the 2001 final report, as well as data from 2002. The second search result for J10 (the mortality code for flu) brings us to page 16 of 48, which contains the breakout of flu and pneumonia. Total flu deaths for 2002: 753. Pneumonia accounted for the other 65,231 deaths. Scrolling to the right are the numbers for 2001. Again, total flu deaths were under one thousand, coming in at 257. That's right, less than a thousand people died of the flu in 2001 and 2002, according to the CDC's own numbers.
Searching around on the CDC website reveals several more pages that call into question the 36,000 deaths per year number. For example, this page dedicated to the 2003-04 season states that "152 influenza-associated deaths among children" occurred during the 2003-04 flu season, but carefully avoids answering its own question about the total number of dead in the 2003-2004 season. Instead, it goes on in serious sounding quais-scientific statistico blather: "During the 2003-04 season, the percentage of P & I-associated deaths was higher than the epidemic threshold for 9 consecutive weeks." Again, lumping pneumonia and flu deaths together, even though the CDC does not recognize the flu as one of the many causes of pneumonia.
Finally, the CDC's own "Flu Pandemics" page puts deaths in the United States from the Spanish Flu Pandemic of 1918-1919 at 500,000, Asian Flu pandemic of 1957-58 at 70,000, and the Hong Kong Flu pandemic of 1968-69 at 34,000. These are the three 20th century pandemics, and two of them killed close to what the CDC is now calling average. What's going on here?
How is it that the CDC could be off by two orders of magnitude between their own official mortality stats, and the press kit number of 36,000 deaths per year. Could it be that the CDC is somehow misleading the public about the relative dangers of the flu?
Here is a link to the CDC-AMA sponsored National Influenza Vaccination Summit for 2004. This is an invitation only conference hosted by the CDC and the American Medical Association. Luckily for the public, the speaker list, agenda, and presentations are posted online. The attendees list of this CDC-AMA sponsored event reads like a lobbying group for flu immunization. Of the 97 attendees, vaccine manufacturers CHIRON (10), Aventis-Pasteur (10), Medimmune (5), and Baxter Vaccines (4) were a full 29 strong. Medical Conglomerates Kaiser Permanente (6) and McKesson (3) rounded out the big corporate influence cabal. The CDC sent 39 attendees and the AMA (proper, not members) had 4. The remainder of the attendees were a mix of state and local health departments (e.g. Rhode Island Medical Society), smaller pharma companies (e.g. Solvay Pharmaceuticals), and pro-immunization organizations (e.g. Sabin Vaccine Institute).
And did these learned scholars of immunology, virology, and general public health debate the merits of vaccinating against a virus that kills less than 1,000 people in most years? Perhaps they were celebrating the fact that only a few hundred died from the flu, thanks to their vaccines? Not exactly. The manufacture, distribution, and administration of flu vaccine is a cash cow, worth several hundred million dollars a year. Here's a quote from CHIRON CORP's 2003 Annual Report: "Sales of our flu vaccines were $332.4 million, $90.0 million and $74.7 million in 2003, 2002 and 2001, respectively." Those numbers represent just the manufacture of flu vaccine, from one company, not including any of the profits from the distribution, or administration of the vaccine.
Buried in the speakers presentations from the conference are some interesting stats. It turns out that 147 children under 18 died of the flu in the 2003–04 season. Of those, 101 reported whether or not the child received the flu vaccine. Of those, 22 had received at least one flu shot, and 4 had received multiple flu shots. That puts the percentage of immunized children that died at just under 22% of all children (page 10 of 23, Cochi Presentation.) Further in the report we learn that the CDC's own studies show they believe the flu vaccine to be only 16%-63% effective against the flu, while a French report shows 61% effectiveness against influenza-like-illness (without confirming that it's actually the flu). According to a Harvard study, (Nowak presentation, page 26), only 22% of parents of children 6–23 months had them immunized, and only 30% of children under 18 were immunized. Now, I'm no Dr. John Lott when it comes to statistics, but if the ratio of immunized to non-immunized children in the total population (22%–30%) is nearly identical to the immunized to non-immunized ratio of children in an admittedly small sample of children that died (22%), the case could be made that the flu vaccine is largely worthless.
In other words, the best case these needle-happy pro-flu vaccinators can mount shows that their immunization program would work, maybe, just over half the time, but some simple number crunching of our own shows that its probably much less than that. The coup de grace' comes from one of the CDC's own, Glen Nowak, PhD., in a presentation titled Planning for the 2004-5 Vaccination Season: A Communication Situation Analysis" the good doctor lays out a media manipulation campaign that would make Goebbels proud. Pages 27 on detail a literal "7 Step Recipe" that the CDC will use, in conjunction with the virus makers, to "(Frame)... the flu season in terms that motivate behavior (e.g., as very severe, more severe than last or past years, deadly)".
To summarize thus far:
At this point, some may think, "Hey, it might be worth getting, just as a preventative measure. Sort of like throwing a little salt over your shoulder, what can it hurt?" Plenty. The good Dr. Donald Miller, cardiac surgeon and Professor of Surgery at the University of Washington in Seattle, recently did an article about the dangers of mercury in vaccines and amalgam fillings. The CDC has a position on Thimerosal (methyl mercury based preservative) in flu vaccines posted to its website. Without admitting that Thimerosal might be responsible for the epidemics of autism, Alzheimer's, and ADD in this country, the CDC gives us a sop about taking it out or removing it. Reading the fine print, however, tells us: "the majority of influenza vaccines distributed in the United States currently contain Thimerosal as a preservative." Furthermore, in a bit of regulatory trickery, the FDA is letting smaller amounts go undisclosed : "..some contain only trace amounts of Thimerosal and are considered by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to be preservative-free." In other words, even if you ask to see the vaccine label, check for Thimerosal, and get a warm fuzzy feeling about the shot being labeled "Thimerosal free," thanks to the FDA's accommodation of drug manufacturers, it could still contain mercury.
When the major manufacturers of flu vaccine get together with the CDC in a closed door summit with the sole purpose of figuring out how to stick 185 million doses of a questionable vaccine into a population in which less than 1,000 people a year die, what should we call it? Yes, Virginia, it is a conspiracy. Luckily the conspirators are foolish enough to believe that their website is safely hidden amidst all the chaff of the Internet, or else, are so brazen in their contempt for the general population that they think we can't do a little math and conclude "The vaccine doesn't work, and the flu is a flim-flam!"
Eventually, there will be another pandemic of the flu, and thousands will die. The CDC should concentrate on finding ways to lower the spread, working alternatives to vaccines, and ways to minimizing the severity of the flu, rather than pumping out fake numbers, creating an aura of fear and hysteria, and shilling for profits to huge pharma companies.
October 9, 2004
John Keller [send him mail] owns a Technology Consulting and a Real Estate business in Atlanta, GA.
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