[EF!] An Arctic alert on global warming

AT RISK IN ALASKA: Melting of ice shelves and glaciers, such as in the
Chugach Mountains, could be driven by temperatures that are rising
faster in the Arctic than globally.
NATHANIEL WILDER

November 09, 2004 edition -
http://www.csmonitor.com/2004/1109/p01s03-sten.html

An Arctic alert on global warming

By Peter N. Spotts
<http://www.csmonitor.com/cgi-bin/encryptmail.pl?ID=D0E5F4E5F2A0CEAEA0D3F0EFF4F4F3A0ADA0E2F9ECE9EEE5>
| Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor

Global warming is heating the Arctic at a rapid pace - with impacts that
could range from the disappearance of polar bears' summer habitat by the
century's end to a damaging rise in sea levels worldwide.

That assessment, released Monday by a group of international climate
experts, amounts to one of the most urgent warnings on climate change to
date, and could put new pressure on the US and other nations to curb
fossil-fuel emissions.

This comes at a time of growing concern about the effects of global
warming, which scientists generally agree is increasingly driven by
rising carbon-dioxide levels in the atmosphere from human industrial
activity and changing land-use patterns.

Monday's report called for "strong near-term action" to reduce output of
gases that, when they rise into the atmosphere, trap heat in what is
called the greenhouse effect.

The trends cited in the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment are stark:

. Rapid melting of Arctic glaciers, including the vast sheet of ice that
covers Greenland. The sheet locks up enough fresh water to raise sea
levels by as much as 27 feet over the course of several centuries. The
group calculates that during this century, Greenland temperatures are
likely to exceed the threshold for triggering the long-term meltdown of
the island's ice sheet.

. Arctic temperatures rising up to twice as fast as the global average.
Over the past 50 years, average winter temperatures in Alaska, western
Canada, and eastern Russia have risen as much as 7 degrees F. Over the
next century, temperatures are projected to rise by up to 13 degrees F.

. A dramatic reduction in the extent of the summer ice pack in the
Arctic Ocean. Late-summer ice coverage already has declined by as much
as 20 percent over the past three decades. The summer ice pack is
projected to shrink by another 10 to 50 percent by the end of the
century. Some climate models show the summer ice vanishing by 2040.

Either change could accelerate warming by allowing the ocean to absorb
solar heat. The change could threaten species such as polar bears and
some seals with extinction. Researchers also worry that an influx of
fresh water into the North Atlantic could disrupt large-scale ocean
currents worldwide, altering weather patterns and the locations where
nutrients rise from the depths to support regional fisheries.

"The Arctic is warming now, at a faster rate than the rest of the
planet. It's affecting people, and its effects are global," says Robert
Corell, a senior fellow with the American Meteorological Society who
chaired the team that pulled the study together.

Assembled over 4-1/2 years, the study came at the request of the Arctic
Council and the International Arctic Science Committee. The council
includes top-level government officials from the United States, Canada,
Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Russia, and Sweden, as well as from
six organizations representing indigenous groups who live in the Arctic
region. Some 300 scientists from the world's top polar-research centers
were involved.

The report details current and projected changes that could affect
everything from shipping, agriculture, and the livelihoods of indigenous
people to breeding grounds for migratory birds, many of which are
considered endangered. One aspect on which researchers are keeping their
eye: the release of methane and carbon dioxide as permafrost thaws and
tundra decomposes. Even if the advance of forests to higher latitudes
soaks up some of this released CO2, this still leaves methane - a much
more potent greenhouse gas - free to enter the atmosphere.

Monday, the Pew Center on Global Climate Change issued its own study of
global warming's effect on the US. The report largely focuses on
warming's impact on ecology and biodiversity.

The Arctic study also comes at a time of growing momentum
internationally to address the climate change.

Last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a bill passed by
parliament that ratified the 1997 Kyoto Protocol. His signature was the
final act required for the pact to take effect. The accord requires
industrial countries party to the pact to reduce their CO2 emissions by
an average of 5.5 percent between 2008 and 2012. While climate
researchers agree that the pact's target will have little effect on
atmospheric CO2, the agreement establishes mechanisms for achieving
emissions targets, such as emissions trading, that may be a foundation
for future agreements.

Perhaps just as important, supporters say, once the protocol takes
force, it requires countries to begin looking ahead to follow-on
agreements that would have a more significant impact on emissions.

In a statement released following Mr. Putin's signing, Eileen Claussen
of the Pew Center on Climate Change noted that talks are set to begin
next year on a post-Kyoto agreement. Now that the protocol is in effect,
it "sets the stage for a new round of negotiations that can produce a
broader, more durable agreement," she said. "New approaches will be
needed to better engage the United States and major developing countries
in the ... effort."

The new report is likely to add to pressure building on the Bush
administration to take firmer actions to curb America's carbon
emissions. British Prime Minister Tony Blair has signaled that climate
will be one of his top priorities when he takes over as president of the
G-8 group of industrial nations in January.

In a recent interview with Reuters, David King, Britain's chief science
adviser, noted that during the summer, White House policymakers "fully
accepted the scientific arguments for climate change and are keen to
play a leadership role. So far we've been focusing on Russia. Clearly
now the spotlight is going to move."

President Bush withdrew the US from the Kyoto treaty in 2001. The
administration has said it views global warming as a serious threat, but
that the Kyoto approach puts too much of the carbon-reduction burden on
the US and other industrial countries, putting millions of jobs at risk.

The administration is spending several billion dollars each year to
research technologies such as clean-burning coal and hydrogen-fueled
cars. And while Bush hasn't signed on to the Kyoto goals, the
administration talks of reducing the economy's "carbon-intensity" - the
amount of carbon needed to produce each dollar of economic output.

"It is of importance to the president that we continue to make progress"
on climate change, EPA administrator Mike Leavitt told the Associated
Press Friday.

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