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Falling Behind

The latest generation of adults in the United States may be the first since World War II, and possibly before that, not to attain higher levels of education than the previous generations. While white and Asian American young people are outpacing previous generations, the gaps for other minority groups are large enough that the current generation is, on average, heading toward being less educated than its predecessor.

These data are among the most dramatic in “Minorities in Higher Education 2008,” which is being released today by the American Council on Education as the 23rd annual status report on the diversification of American colleges and universities.

Most of the data in the report are not themselves new, and come from the various reports issued over the year by the U.S. Education Department and other government and private sources. The educational attainment data, for example, are from census figures. But the report groups various statistics together in ways that are designed to promote a fuller understanding of the way demographics are changing — or not.

“We are at a tipping point in our nation’s history,” said Molly Corbett Broad, president of the ACE, in reference to these findings. She said that “the alarm bells should be going off” all over the country over this analysis, given the historic pattern of successive generations outperforming one another.

Educational Attainment: Percentage of Adults With Associate Degree or Higher, 2006

Group

Ages 25-29

Ages 30 and Up

Total

34.9%

34.3%

White

41.2%

37.3%

Black

23.8%

24.1%

Latino

16.0%

17.8%

Asian American

66.2%

54.1%

American Indians

17.7%

21.2%

Broad noted that the data also point to a growing gender gap in educational attainment, which is consistent with all of the reports about gender gaps in enrollments. For black and Latino women, for example, the most recent generation outperformed the prior ones, but the opposite is true for men. And across racial and ethnic groups, women are achieving a higher level of education than men.

Percentage of People Aged 25-29 With At Least An Associate Degree, 2006, by Race and Gender

Group

Men

Women

White

36%

46%

Black

20%

28%

Latino

13%

20%

Asian American

63%

69%

American Indians

16%

20%

For much of the report, evidence of some progress alternates with evidence of stagnation. Some of the other figures:

  • Total minority enrollment increased by 50 percent, to 5 million students, between 1995 and 2005. White enrollment increased by 8 percent, to 10.7 million.
  • Following those enrollment trends, minority students make up about 29 percent of all students.
  • Enrollment gains have been uneven. In 2006, 61 percent of Asian Americans aged 18 to 24 were enrolled in college compared with 44 percent of whites, 32 percent of African Americans, and 25 percent of Hispanics and American Indians respectively.
  • In a key indicator that black enrollments may not be about to boom, the high school completion rate has remained relatively flat over the last two decades, at around 76 percent. (By comparison, the rate for Asian Americans is 91 percent.)
  • The increase in Hispanic enrollment led all racial/ethnic groups, up by 66 percent to more than 1.7 million students. Hispanic enrollment grew faster at four-year institutions than at two-year institutions.
  • Asian-American enrollment increased to more than 1 million over the 10-year period between 1995 and 2005, up 37 percent.

Scott Jaschik

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Comments

The statistics show that men are not seeking as much education as women. But what does that mean? Is it that men don’t need advanced degrees to get ahead in the work place and women do? Or are men simply doing something else that can’t be measured by numbers?Statistics point to facts, but not to reasons.

Susan, Academic Counselor, at 8:40 am EDT on October 9, 2008

Affirmative Action

Interesting findings, but aren’t we all on a level playing field? I thought that every person in America has an equal chance of obtaining a college degree. You know, doesn’t every kid admitted to college come in with the same skills, same knowledge base, same understanding of how the education game is played? Is that not why affirmative action measures have been outlawed in places like California and Michigan and possibly five other states this November? I mean, if minority enrollments rates are on the rise, so should their degree attainment rates, right?

(Note for all those individuals not skilled in deciphering sarcasm-I am laying it on pretty thick here.)

Kevin Leonard, Sr. Program Coordinator at Michigan State University, at 8:40 am EDT on October 9, 2008

alarm bells

Taken alone, these figures suggest concern, given the percentage changes are not huge. But, taken in context with NAAL, ACT and other reports looking at literacy and academic preparation, the alarm bells are loud...for all groups. This is to say nothing of looking at the decline over time of State funding for higher education and for public services like libraries, literacy projects, public transportation to get people to these services and the like.

As an advisor for exploring students and as an instructor, I see the practical results in the numbers of students placing in developmental courses and the increasing numbers of students stumbling as they move from high school academic culture to college culture.

I just hope this report does not simply lead to an outbreak of finger-pointing. The issue is just too complex for blame..and too complex for quick fixes like No Child left Behind.

theron, at 9:20 am EDT on October 9, 2008

Underlying issue?

Could the increased cost of higher education coupled with economic woes be part of the underlying problem? When grants and loans don’t cover the full cost of education and the parents are in danger of losing their home, do some forego college?

I’d say there is a multitude of contributing factors, but the trick is finding the ones that will cause a turnaround in the shortest amount of time. I don’t think everyone should go to college, but I don’t like the trend of fewer going to college than before.

Befuddled, at 9:55 am EDT on October 9, 2008

“Higher Ed & the Color Line”

A agree that answers are urgently needed, yet perpetually elusive. But despite the difficulty, we can ill afford to throw up our hands at a time when economic pressures are likely to exacerbate the trend. By mid-century, “minorities” in the U.S. will be the new majority, with Hispanics leading the way. We must get beyond us/them attitudes to see this as our national dilemma.

For more on this trend I recommend reading “Higher Education And The Color Line: College Access, Racial Equity, And Social Change” edited by Gary Orfield, Patricia Marin, and Catherine L. Horn. In chapter 3, “Equity in Educational Attainment", Derek Price and Jill Wohlford use a simple formula they call the “Educational Attainment Parity Indicator” that puts these figures into stark relief.

To feed a critial discussion of reasons, PBS’ one-hour “Beyond Brown” is a good resource — illustrating the resegregation of American education.

Answers? Nothing simple, surely. But let’s remember that the Supreme Court simply put Affirmative Action on life support in the U of Michigan cases. If we don’t begin to demonstrate how ethnic diversity is an integral component of every student’s college education, the indication is that “they” will soon be on their own in our ultra-individualized, pseudo-egalitarian society.

Kevin McMahan, Associate Dean for Intercultural Affairs at Northwestern College (Iowa), at 10:45 am EDT on October 9, 2008

Missing the obvious

Talk about missing the obvious. Given the large boom in adult education over the last decade, of course those aged between 24 and 29 have earned fewer than those over 30. Those over 30 have had longer to earn them. The only fair comparison would be how many of those over 30 had their degrees by the time they were 29. Also since minorities are more likely to earn thier degrees through adult education, their numbers are not particularly telling either. This report is nothing but a bad use of statistics used to scare people.

R Sweo, at 11:50 am EDT on October 9, 2008

Groups vs, Individuals

There is a fetish for proportionality as the gold standard of fairness. If every single person was treated fairly and group non-proportionality was the result, where is the harm? Who exactly is harmed by such an outcome?

Just as we humans are tricked by optical illusions, we labor under a cognitive delusion that disproportionate group results is somehow wrong and unfair. The logical ‘fallacy of division’ incorrectly suggests that proportionate group results somehow bestows fairness on all the individuals of those groups.

If diversity supremists demand proportionality in higher education, I’d like to hear their plan for severely restricting the number of Jews entering law and medical schools. That damned Jewish conspiracy towards educational achievement must be stopped!

eddy, at 12:00 pm EDT on October 9, 2008

Whites need affirmative action

So, educational attainment among whites is about 25 percentage points below that of Asian Americans. This must be the result of “institutionalized racism” and “discrimiation.” What else could it possibly be? Clearly we need affirmative action and other programs to close this gap!

Prof Challenger, at 12:10 pm EDT on October 9, 2008

Kevin McMahan

If we don’t begin to demonstrate how ethnic diversity is an integral component of every student’s college education, the indication is that “they” will soon be on their own in our ultra-individualized, pseudo-egalitarian society.

Thanks for giving me a hearty laugh, intellectual masterbation is a real hoot. You make meritocracy sound so risible.

bystander, at 12:20 pm EDT on October 9, 2008

Such a large portion of students who are lumped into the “Asian” category are international students (who, OF COURSE, among all races tend to have relatively high graduation rates because they come here for college) that the figure presented here is hardly indicative of the graduation rates for Asian AMERICANS...or Southeast Asian Americans, who likely are still graduating from college at rates lower than Whites and the overall population.

Response to Professor Challenger, Think a Little More Critically about the Word Asian Please, at 2:05 pm EDT on October 9, 2008

Prof Challenger speaks

I guess it’s human nature to try to explain away data that doesn’t fit with one’s world view. Blacks have lower college attainment rates than whites? Oh, how horrible. We need to do something. It’s our fault. But if white have lower college attainment rates than Asians, well, that’s just an anomaly explained by how “Asian” is defined. The point I was trying to make earlier is simply that fixating on race/ethnicity gets us nowhere. The causes of educational success (or lack thereof) do not lie in one’s pigmentation. I think rather than continually redefining and creating ethnic/racial categories (Asian-American, Asian immigrant, Southeast Asian), we should spend some time looking at what characteristics cause (and not just correlate with) success.

Prof Challenger, at 3:25 pm EDT on October 9, 2008

“While white and Asian American young people are outpacing previous generations, the gaps for other minority groups are large enough that the current generation is, on average, heading toward being less educated than its predecessor.”

So let’s see, the white and Asian victims of affirmative action are doing better and the beneficiaries of racial preferences are doing worse. Is it possible that legally-sanctioned racial discrimination does more harm than good for those it purports to help?

Curious, at 3:25 pm EDT on October 9, 2008

barking up the wrong tree

“If we don’t begin to demonstrate how ethnic diversity is an integral component of every student’s college education, the indication is that “they” will soon be on their own in our ultra-individualized, pseudo-egalitarian society.”

Wouldn’t it be more useful to ask why blacks are doing so much worse as the society has bent the 14th Amendment into a pretzel to justify racial discrimination in favor of blacks? If whites were at the top of stack on this, the “institutional racism” argument might be worthy of examination. But pretty clearly, the only way “institutional racism” is much of an argument is if these institutions dominated by liberals hate blacks, and love Asians more than whites.

Maybe we should start looking at the cultural factors involved. Is there anything more obviously true than that cultural values about education influence how much education kids get?

Clayton E. Cramer, at 7:40 pm EDT on October 9, 2008

Declining enrollments due to declining value?

Many comments here have made good points, but I feel that too little attention is being paid to the question of whether more higher education is really worth what it costs, from the point of view of either the individual or the government.

The president of ACE tells us that “alarm bells should be going off” if we diverge from our “historical patten” of successive generations outperforming one another. Of course, ACE “seeks to...influence [higher ed] public policy through advocacy, research, and program initiatives,” according to its mission statement, so we might take a deep breath before succumbing to high anxiety over these reported findings. Could it be that too many higher ed degrees just aren’t worth their cost? And if that’s the case, what should the remedy be? (ACE, one infers, will not be happy until everyone goes to college—and then what new heights shall the next generation scale in order to “outperform” their parents?)

Calculating costs and benefits of education is hard and controversial, but the literature on it is interesting; one highly plausible conclusion is that “rates-of-return have typically been overstated, perhaps by a factor of three, and that once quality is taken into account the results indicate that ‘deepening’ schooling by increasing quality has a higher social rate of return than ‘broadening’ schooling by increasing quantity” (http://www.heritage.org/research/Education/ bg2179.cfmw). Meaning: If a state wants to improve its return on investments in education, it will do better to increase quality, not increase access and number of graduates.

In an economy where information, and even a fair amount of expertise (spreadsheet templates, etc.), are available online, I’m trying very hard to understand what value can be added by school? If I (and my institutional employers) can significantly improve a young person’s earnings over the next few decades, then we’ll probably continue to find customers, the more so as our value to them is clearly demonstrable. Likewise, if our graduates are in fact more productive by virtue of the education we provided them, then politicians will eventually support policies friendly to our welfare. But when I walk into my classrooms, I sure do feel adrift.

Rod Bell, Adjunct Professor at College of DuPage, at 4:55 am EDT on October 10, 2008

the value of college

Rod Bell asks how much value education is adding. Perhaps when only 35% of graduating high school seniors went on to college, it wasn’t that a college education itself dramatically enhanced one’s lifetime earnings, but that a college education was a proxy for those who were above average in intelligence and ambition. Now, when a large majority of graduating high school seniors go to college, we may be seeing more clearly that a college degree alone isn’t an enormous economic advantage.

My limited experience teaching at the college level suggests that a lot of people are going to college now who would not have been considered college material when I graduated from high school in 1974: kids with neither the native intelligence nor drive to succeed at even the lowest levels of academic rigor.

Clayton E. Cramer, at 10:10 am EDT on October 10, 2008

Value? Or values?

I know it’s not fashionable to ascribe any of these discrepancies to culture, but the longer we behave as though culture doesn’t matter, the worse these discrepancies will get.

It’s not just, or IMO even, racism or flawed public policy that has African-American young men headed to college at lower rates than their elders these days — it’s the culture that surrounds too many of them. It’s teachers who refuse to set the bar high and parents who either can’t help them meet it when it’s set high or don’t care one way or the other. It’s images in pop music that glorify the “get rich or die tryin’” ethos without connecting it to honest effort (whether in a job or by applying one’s own talents to some creative project) and the false equation of this ethos with “racial authenticity.” It’s the absence of care and concern that has Bill Cosby up in arms at his fellow African-Americans. If we do not address these, we can have “diversity” and “affirmative action” and funding out the wazoo and the numbers won’t get any better.

Not that it should make a difference, but since it will to someone, I’m African-American myself.

Sandy Smith, at 10:35 am EDT on October 14, 2008

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