They're only running for president because "she" wasn't supposed to.
The "they" are Texas governor Rick Perry and Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann, the co-darlings of the Tea Party, who've recently emerged, post-Iowa straw poll, as fierce presidential rivals. And the "she"? Former Alaska governor Sarah Palin, of course.
Most observers have assumed for months that despite her political antics, including a "bus tour" that became an overnight media sensation – but then largely flopped – Palin would not, in fact, run. Polls show that most Republicans – even those who like her – don't want her to. And virtually the entire GOP political establishment has been trying to keep her from joining the race.
But Palin has always marched to the beat of her own publicist (that is, herself). And she's just released a fancy election campaign-style video, entitled "Iowa passion", that suggests more than anything else she's done of late that she's about to jump into the race. And the date? According to the video, it could come on 3 September when Palin's scheduled to address a major Tea Party rally in Iowa, where her fabled "bus tour" showed up unexpectedly just a week ago, while the rest of the GOP field was competing in Ames.
It turns out that Palin went to Iowa to attend the state fair and to gauge her political support, with one or more of her future childstars – in this case, Piper. It was Piper's sister, Bristol, of course, who inadvertently confided to a news reporter some weeks ago that "Mommy" had already made up her mind to run, which apparently led to an offstage parental dressingdown. Palin guards her intentions so jealously that no one outside her immediate family (and possibly not even them) has a clue what she's planning to do. But GOP strategist Karl Rove, who largely despises Palin and make no secret of it, says he's convinced that his bete noir has made up her mind. And Rove did correctly predict in early July that his former protege Perry would run.
Despite recurring predictions that she would fade from the political scene, she has failed to oblige. When she quit her Alaska governorship early to start cultivating the Palin "brand", many commentators declared her "finished". But she was just getting started. Last year, after founding SarahPAC to attract millions in small political donations, she emerged as a major power broker in the GOP. She even joined forces with Perry to defeat a primary challenge from ex-Senator Kay Bailey Huchison – whom Rove and the Bush clan had backed.
So, the day of reckoning may well be at hand. McCain, who's effusively praised his former 2008 running mate for months, dutifully repeated his unofficial endorsement on Face the Nation last Sunday. It's unclear what Perry or Bachmann, who also benefited mightily from Palin's backing last November, would say. Palin's entry would throw a huge wrench into both candidates' strategies – possibly knocking Bachmann completely out of the race.
Palin still has millions of fans in small towns in rural America, especially among Christian evangelicals who've been gravitating towards Perry and Bachmann, and who are likely to decide the outcome of two of the three critical early primaries. And at Fox News, where Palin is officially a "co-host" – and the husband of anchor Greta van Susteren is employed by Palin herself – she is guaranteed favourable coverage, no matter what the "lamestream media" might say about her.
National polls have also shown Palin gaining, ever so slightly, on Obama, in recent weeks. She's into the 40s in a head-to-head contest with the president. And those independents, especially women, who have found her so objectionable? There's definitely movement her way: enough to suggest that Palin, while not yet perceived as "electable" by the GOP machine – despite McCain's insistence – could win over the party sceptics. A strong primary showing by Palin would give her a major role in shaping the Republican party platform, earn her a top political post should the GOP win, and reconfirm "Palin Inc" as one of the country's most irrepressible political brands.
There she goes again.