Ten Likely Events in 2008

After pondering what won't happen, we decided to don our prediction hats again. Think: President Bloomberg and an Apple flat screen, or maybe not

by BW Staff

Move over, Nostradamus. When it comes to prognostications, we here at BusinessWeek take a backseat to no one—especially when there's zero money on the line.

BusinessWeek writers and editors put our eggnog-addled minds together and envisaged 10 events we're pretty sure will come to pass in the next 12 months. Maybe it's our natural tendency to see the cloud around every silver lining, but we can't help but think some of the notable "movements" of 2007—full-blare touting of corporate green credentials and social networks, to name two—will run their course in 2008. Oil bulls will have their way. Airlines will lie down together in green meadows. You get the picture.

Of course, if we really knew what was going to happen, we would start one of those fancy hedge funds. And yes, we knew they were going to run into trouble last year. But we can't tip everything, can we? Then there would be nothing to write about.

Green Crisis

There will be a backlash in the green movement after it becomes clear that many of the companies claiming to be green are in fact nothing of the sort. Businesses that proclaim they are "carbon neutral" will find that such proclamations no longer carry much weight among far more skeptical media and consumers.

Airline Consolidation Begins

At least one major U.S. airline will buy another in 2008. The most likely scenario is that Delta Air Lines (DAL) will go after Northwest Airlines (NWA), United Airlines (UAUA), or JetBlue Airways (JBLU). When that happens, others will scramble to cut their own deals. Certainly, no airline wants to be left stranded as a solo operator if Clinton or Obama ends up in the White House and taps the brakes on industry consolidation. The main drivers for such combinations will be the shabby finances many companies will see in 2008 and the argument that the U.S. economy and business require a healthier industry. What's more, airlines that restructured in bankruptcy have some new private equity and hedge fund owners that will demand returns.

Bloomberg's Historic Run

New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg will enter the Presidential race in February, after it becomes clear which nominees will get the nod from the major parties. His multiple billions and organization will impress voters—and stun rivals. He'll look like the most viable third-party candidate since Teddy Roosevelt. But Bloomberg will come up short, as he comes in for withering attacks from both Democrats and Republicans. He and Clinton will split more than 50% of the votes, but Arizona's maverick senator, John McCain, will end up the country's next President.

Bye-bye, CDs

The music industry is in crisis. The key reason is that CD sales are plummeting. Now, it's going to get worse. This year, the most important retailers, including Wal-Mart Stores (WMT) and Best Buy (BBY), will look to radically downsize their CD sections. Perhaps there will be no more than one aisle, chock-full of mainstream pop titles. Digital music will continue to grow in influence, from iTunes (AAPL) and Amazon.com (AMZN) to ad-supported site such as imeem and fast-growing upstarts like Pitchfork.

Facebook Fatigue

Social network fatigue will set in as people tire of getting yet another invitation from so-called friends to join yet another social network. And, in the wake of Facebook's fumbled social ads initiative, it will become even more apparent there's no obvious way to pitch products on these sites without turning off members. Social features will wend their way into all kinds of Web services, from search to news, but the gold rush in social networks themselves will begin to wane.